A few weeks ago, national Democrats completely canceled their planned TV spending for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. One of those groups, House Majority PAC, released a poll shortly before it pulled out showing Democrat Carol Shea-Porter leading scandal-tarred GOP Rep. Frank Guinta 44-34, so Team Blue was certainly acting like they believed Shea-Porter was well-positioned to win. However, Guinta’s allies at the NRCC still had millions of their own reserved here, so they still seemed to believe that Guinta had a good chance to keep his seat. But that’s now changed.
According to a Democratic source who tracks media buys, the NRCC has now canceled all their remaining TV reservations as well—$2 million worth for the final two weeks of the campaign—and no conservative groups have swooped in to fill the void. Guinta himself doesn’t have much money left, so he’s not in a good position to carry on against Shea-Porter without any outside help. And independent polling also shows Guinta trailing, so it’s very unlikely that Team Red is making this move because they’re confident he’s ahead.
Ultimately, we can’t say we’re surprised at this state of affairs. Guinta has been in political hot water since May of last year, when the FEC ruled that he’d illegally accepted a $355,000 campaign donation from his parents in 2010, during his first bid for Congress. Prominent New Hampshire Republicans excoriated Guinta and demanded he resign, but he decided to seek another term despite the near-universal opprobrium.
Guinta should have taken that advice. His war chest took a huge hit after he paid a fine to the FEC and repaid his parents, and donors were reluctant to help him replenish it, leaving him without much money to forge ahead. Guinta got extremely lucky in September’s GOP primary, as businessman Rich Ashooh wasn’t quite strong enough to defeat him, but the incumbent’s narrow 649-vote win left him with even less money or and little time to prepare for his general election rematch with Shea-Porter.
With both parties acting like Guinta is history, Daily Kos Elections is moving this contest from Tossup to Lean Democratic. This race may shift even further in the Democratic direction before Election Day, but there are still a few things to give Guinta some hope. Obama only carried this Manchester seat 50-49, so there are still quite a few conservative voters here. Wealthy independent Shawn O'Connor also complicates things a bit: O'Connor is a former Democrat, and his ads have been aimed more at liberal voters than Republicans, so he could end off taking some critical votes from Shea-Porter. It’s also possible that a well-funded conservative group like the Congressional Leadership Fund could step in and fill the void that the NRCC has left.
But right now, Guinta’s own party is triaging this race. He’s going to need a lot of luck if hopes to win his fourth straight battle with Shea-Porter, but with just two weeks left, Fortuna is not smiling down upon him.