Here’s an update to my previous post. This post will focus on the tossup races. For those looking for the Senate maps, they can be found here. More information on the demographics of the districts can be found here.
SD 5
Jim Gaughran just picked up an
endorsement from Newsday, which is the most widely circulated paper on Long Island. I'm not sure how much newspaper endorsements matter anymore, but Newsday had previously been pretty charitable to the Senate Republicans. Why they've endorsed the Republican candidate in SDs 1-4, and 6 (more on that below), they've endorsed the Democratic candidate in SDs 5, and 7-9. It's a major coup for the Senate Democratic Caucus to have Newsday tacitly endorsing control of the chamber to be in their hands. Reporting from this morning has this race as being close. I’m keeping this at
Tossup.
SD 6
Kemp Hannon has the endorsement of several unions, and just received the endorsement of Newsday. Hannon is in a tight race with Ryan Cronin, who has been hitting Hannon on
ethics; he's also got an add hitting Hannon on ties to
corporate polluters, the pharmaceutical industry, and the NRA. Hannon has had close scares in Presidential years, including one against Cronin in 2008. I'm rating this race at
Tossup.
SD 7
Democrat Adam Haber was recently
endorsed by Newsday in his race to succeed Jack Martins who took the unenviable task of trying to turn Steve Israel's seat red. Haber is running against Flower Hill Mayor Elaine Phillips. Haber has some momentum due to the Nassau County Executive scandal. I also expect Trump to be a drag on Republicans in this district. While eastern Suffolk County is going to likely swing hard for Trump. Western Nasasu is significantly more well-education and affluent. There's also a large number of Jewish voters who I imagine have not taken Trump's brand of racism in stride. Phillips has called on the County Executive to resign, but it may not be enough to divorce her from Nassau's county machine. I'm keeping this race at
Tossup.
SD 8
This is surprising.
Newsday has endorsed John Brooks, a republican running on the democratic line, in his race against incumbent Senator Mike Venditto. The Newsday endorsement cites Brooks' experience and knowledge, essentially calls Venditto a lightweight, and criticizes him on ethics--maybe a not-so-subtle nod to Venditto's father, John Venditto, Oyster Bay Town Supervisor's recent indictment along with Nassau County Executive Ed Mangano. While the Senator hasn't been indicted, he and his father share a last name that's been in negative headlines as of late; additionally, Venditto recently sent out a mailer, the day before his father's indictment, touting his work on ethics reform. This race seems to be a perfect storm of bad news for Venditto, and Brooks didn't seem to be gaining traction until recently. I'm conservatively going to rate this at
Lean R. Dems hold a 10,000 vote advantage by party ID here, but other than this endorsement, this is the first real movement I've seen from the Brooks campaign.
SD 9
This race has sort of ended up being a snoozer. Todd Kaminsky won this seat in a special election back in April. He, again, faces lawyer Chris McGrath. A lot of money has been spent, but Kaminsky was recently
endorsed by Newsday, Governor Cuomo (!!!), and Senator Chuck Schumer for re-election. Given the corruption scandal discussed above, and Kaminsky's background as a federal prosecutor, I expect him to win this fairly easily. I'm moving this race to
Likely D.
SD 15
There's a confluence of events happening in this district that make me think Senator Addabbo is vulnerable, even though he's done nothing wrong. Bear with me for a minute. Back in September, longtime Assemblywoman Marge Markey lost her primary to Brian Barnwell by a blowout margin. Markey had easily won her primaries since about 1994. She lost largely due to her perceived inaction on stopping a proposed homeless shelter in Maspeth, Queens. I won't editorialize about this, but the protests got heated, and many local electeds, including Addabbo, were out in front raising the concerns of the residents of Maspeth. Now, the district itself is the proverbial 'Archie Bunker" portions of Queens. Neighborhoods like Maspeth, Glendale, Middle Village, and Howard Beach are fairly conservative; to be blunt, there's a lot of Trump voters out here--definitely way more than the average in NYC. Mayor De Baslio is super unpopular in these parts. Finally, Addabbo represents Howard Beach (as mentioned above) and large swaths of the Rockaways, both of which were decimated by Hurricane Sandy. There have been several reports as of late about the Mayor's "Build It Back" initiative to rebuild homes damaged by Sandy. In short, the Mayor's program is over budget and way behind schedule. People are rightly angry that their homes have not been rebuilt, or are far behind schedule. Recently, Addabbo came out and said that he did not this De Blasio deserved to be re-elected, and that he would cross party lines to support Councilman Eric Ulrich, should he run for mayor. While pols in this area tend to work very closely together and are less bound by their party affiliation, especially after Sandy, it's hard to not look at this as Addabbo protecting himself. Maybe he sees something in his polling that indicates he needs to separate himself from De Blasio specifically? Addabbo recently picked up the endorsement of Governor Cuomo, which may help out here. Without hard data, this is all speculation, but all these events have me wondering if this race is closer than expected. Out of caution, I'm going to rate this at Lean D. This is a district where a real surprise could happen.
SD 39
Senator Larkin's days in this seat could be numbered. He narrowly avoided a strong challenge from Assemblyman James Skoufis, who decided to seek re-election to the Assembly instead of seeking a promotion. Larkin is being challenged by Orange County Legislator Chris Eachus. Larkin recently skipped a candidate form held by the Times Herald Record. Eachus also picked up the endorsement of the Journal News, which cited Larkin skipping time on the campaign trail, candidates forms, and budget hearings as reasons, while also praising Eachus' knowledge on issues affecting teachers and ethics. Ironically, Eachus failed to disclose $200k worth of income on his financial disclosure forms, which he promptly amended. However, it doesn't seem like there was any nefarious rationale behind this; it seems like a, frankly, stupid mistake. There’s been some reporting this morning that this race may be tilting towards Larkin. Given Larkin's perceived lack of interest in this race, and Eachus' momentum, I'm keeping this at Tossup.
SD 41
Terry Gipson has been running a real race to take back his old seat from Senator Sue Serino. He recently picked up the endorsement of
Senator Schumer, which certainly helps since Schumer is heading for a blowout win. If Gipson can run up the margins in Poughkeepsie, Beacon, and the areas around Bard College, he can probably win again. It's worth noting that this district was held by former Senator Steve Saland who lost in a 3-way race to Gipson in 2012. Had a conservative party member not challenged Saland he would've won that race. The NY League of Conservation Voters is also
spending money here to elect Gipson.
Tossup.
SD 46
If George Amedore loses this race, he'll have the accomplished something very interesting: he'll have lost to two different sheep farmers. Sara NIccoli, Palatine Town Supervisor, head of the NYS Labor-Religion Coalition, and, as mentioned, sheep farmer, is running a spirited race against Amedore in this district. Amedore is a developer and was an Assemblyman for about 4 years prior to becoming a senator. This district was tailor made for him during redistricting, but he ended up losing it by 19 votes in a shocking upset to Cece Tkaczyk, in what thankfully wasn't a write-in campaign. Niccoli has a great profile, and seems to be running a strong race. It also helps that Zephyr Teachout is running a strong congressional race down in the Ulster County portions of the district where Niccoli needs to do well--this area and the portions of UAlbany that are in the district are thought to have brought Tkaczyk over the finish line in 2012. I'm rating this race at Lean R given Amedore's upset losses in the past.
SD 60
An article in the NY Daily News this morning has both republicans and democrats claiming this race is
no longer competitive and is likely to go for Erie County Clerk Chris Jacobs. This is a super democratic district and seemingly everything that could've went wrong here for the dems did. Small hasn't gained much traction here, and while
some outside groups are spending here, it seems to have fallen off the radar for the dems as they refocused towards Long Island.
Likely R.