For those of you who are worried about Nate Silver and 538, don’t. Ian Douglas Rushlau wrote a nice piece about PollyVote, a poll aggregator that according to WaPo “Given the PollyVote’s historical track record and stability, it is highly unlikely that Trump wins”. My title pic is the latest screen grab of their electoral map.
From WaPo:
“Since its launch in 2004, the PollyVote has always predicted the correct winner. On average, the PollyVote has more accurately forecast election outcomes than any one of its component methods. Across the last six presidential elections since 1992, the PollyVote would have missed the outcome by only one percentage point on average across the last 100 days before Election Day.”
My purpose isn’t to criticize Nate Silver and 538, but I think their models like others underestimate the Hispanic, Asian and African American vote in Nevada, North Carolina and Florida. Even their latest map with HRC losing Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida she still has 275 electoral votes and wins and that’s all that matters. I would tell everyone to relax, but I know that’s not possible considering what’s at stake in this election. Just remember if we vote we win.