Campaign Action
Leading Off
● WI-Gov: GOP Gov. Scott Walker hasn't announced if he'll seek a third term in 2018, though he says he's considering it. While Walker's presidential bid fizzled out well before the Iowa caucus, any Democrat knows that going toe to toe with the well-connected governor would not be easy. However, a number of Badger State Democrats have made noises about seeking the governorship.
State Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling, who held her seat in November by 61 votes, didn't rule out a bid earlier this month, saying it would be a family decision. State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, who took just 4 percent of the vote in the 2012 primary to face Walker, recently acknowledged that she's thinking about another run.
Back in May, Joe Parisi, the executive of Madison's Dane County, didn't rule out a gubernatorial run, though he said he was still seeking re-election in 2017. In July, ex-state Sen. Tim Cullen also said he was considering; back in 2012, Cullen briefly left the Democratic caucus even though it threatened the party's one-seat hold over the state Senate, so he may not be the ideal Democratic standard bearer. 2014 Attorney General nominee Susan Happ has also set up social media accounts ahead of an unnamed statewide bid. WISN, a local ABC affiliate, also recently mentioned Assemblyman Dana Wachs as a possible candidate, though he doesn't appear to have publicly talked about running yet.
Rep. Ron Kind's name is also periodically mentioned, though he also doesn't seem to have publicly expressed interest in running. Donald Trump performed well in Kind's rural central Wisconsin seat last month, and Democrats may have a tough time holding onto the 3rd District without him. However, Democrats may benefit from having a nominee with a rural base, and Kind may also want to get out of the House before his seat can get any worse.
Senate
● FL-Sen: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson has signaled that he'll seek a fourth term in 2018 for a while, and he gave a definitive yes to CNN recently. When asked if he'll run again, Nelson replied, "of course," and added, "I only run one way: scared as a jackrabbit." Florida is a very competitive state and the extremely rich Gov. Rick Scott has expressed interest in challenging Nelson, so the senator is right to take the campaign very seriously.
Gubernatorial
● MI-Gov: GOP Lt. Gov. Brian Calley has looked like a likely 2018 candidate for a long time, but he hadn't actually said much about his plans. However, Calley recently told the Detroit News that he'll make a decision in the new year.
The News' question came after Ohio Gov. John Kasich sent out a fundraising email on Calley's behalf; Kasich said that Calley, who supported his presidential campaign, "is strongly considering a run for governor to succeed Governor Rick Snyder," and encouraged readers to donate to "help put Brian in the best position to run." Attorney General Bill Schuette also says he'll decide in 2017, and other Republicans could get in.
● NM-Gov: Several Land of Enchantment Democrats are considering running to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Susana Martinez in 2018, and we can add two new names to the growing list of potential candidates. Santa Fe Mayor Javier Gonzales recently put out a statement saying that he's "getting calls of encouragement to give it a serious look, and I'm reflecting on that with my family and my friends and the people of Santa Fe." Gonzales attracted national attention after he proclaimed that Santa Fe would remain a sanctuary city despite Donald Trump's threats to cut off federal funding to cities that won't deport undocumented immigrants.
The NM Political Report and Santa Fe New Mexican also both mention ex-Univision executive Jeff Apodaca as a potential Democratic candidate. Apodaca is also the son of Jerry Apodaca, who was governor in the mid-1970s. So far, Apodaca doesn't appear to have publicly expressed interest in a 2018 bid.
● OH-Gov: Last month, just before Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan launched his quixotic campaign against Nancy Pelosi for House minority leader, his office didn't rule out the possibility that he'd run for governor. Now that the Democratic leadership race is over, Ryan himself is reaffirming that he's interested in campaigning to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. John Kasich.
Ryan didn't say when he'd decide, only telling Politico that he'd "step away from everything for a couple weeks" and re-evaluate. Ryan also said his decision will be based on his feeling about how the state and national economy are doing under Donald Trump, factors he acknowledged are out of his control. Ryan consistently flirts with running for statewide office but never goes for it, something Ryan himself addressed. However, Ryan countered by noting that, by turning down a 2010 lieutenant governor bid and 2016 Senate run, he managed to avoid running statewide during two horrible election cycles for Buckeye State Democrats.
House
● FL-18: Outgoing Rep. Patrick Murphy, who lost last month's Senate election to GOP Sen. Marco Rubio, held out the possibility the other day that he might run for governor in 2018. But would he consider a comeback bid for his House seat, which was picked up by Republican Brian Mast? Murphy says such a move is "very unlikely," and it's not hard to understand why.
Mast defeated Democrat Randy Perkins by a pretty sizable 54-43 margin, and what's more, according to Matthew Isbell's calculations, Donald Trump also carried Florida's 18th District by a similar 53-44 spread. That's a lot worse for Democrats than Barack Obama's performance in 2012, when he lost by a much narrower 51-48 margin. And a big part of the reason Murphy was able to win this seat in the first place was because he ran against Republican Alan West, a total lunatic. Mast, suffice it to say, isn't cray like West.
From the same discussion with TCPalm's Isadora Rangel, though, it sounds like Murphy might also considering bids for other statewide offices that'll be open in 2018, such as commissioner of agriculture or, perhaps more plausibly, chief financial officer. There are no direct quotes from Murphy, though, so it's not clear whether he floated those ideas or if they're just Rangel's speculation.
Grab Bag
● Pres-by-CD: We hit Illinois and Oregon for our project to calculate the presidential election results by congressional district. We have a chart of all 435 congressional districts here, which also includes results from 2012. That's the page you'll want to bookmark, since we're updating it continuously. We'll be pushing out new data on a rolling basis as the results are officially certified and the precinct-level election results we need for our calculations become available. (Ballotpedia has a list of state certification deadlines.)
Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump 56-39 in Illinois, not much different than Barack Obama's 58-41 win over Mitt Romney four years ago. But below the surface, several congressional districts swung wildly in one direction or another.
Clinton carried 11 of the state's 18 districts, while Obama took 12. The 6th District, an affluent suburban Chicago seat represented by GOP Rep. Peter Roskam, was the one seat she took that Obama had lost. While Romney carried the 6th by a hefty 53-45 margin, Clinton won it 50-43. However, Roskam defeated an unheralded Democratic opponent 59-41. Maybe Trump can make Roskam vulnerable in a future cycle, but the well-connected incumbent still won't be easy to beat.
Trump won two seats that had backed Obama four years before. The 12th District, located in the St. Louis suburbs, dramatically swerved from 50-48 Obama to 55-40 Trump. National Democrats aired some ads against freshman Republican Rep. Mike Bost in the final days of the contest, but he won 54-40. The 17th District, located along the Iowa border, went from 58-41 Obama to 47.4-46.7 Trump. Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos, who beat her Some Dude GOP opponent 60-40, hasn't ruled out a 2018 gubernatorial bid: If Bustos leaves, this district could be a top GOP target.
There were some other notable results in Illinois. Clinton carried the 10th District, which takes up the suburbs north of Chicago, 62-33, an improvement on Obama's 58-41. This area has been friendly to Republicans downballot, but Clinton's strong performance was too much for Republican incumbent Bob Dold! to withstand. Dold lost to Democrat Brad Schneider 53-47 in their third bout: Schneider narrowly unseated Dold in 2012, and Dold returned the favor in 2014. It's possible the GOP will target this seat again in 2018, but this area isn't getting any redder.
The 14th District, located on the outskirts of the Chicago suburbs, still went for Trump 49-45, but that's a big drop from Romney's 54-44 win here. Democrats haven't shown any interest in targeting GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren, but this area may be competitive enough to get their attention in a good year. The 13th, which includes parts of Springfield and Champaign, went from 48.9-48.6 Romney to 50-44 Trump. That's a big swing, but at least it didn't shift as far to the right as the neighboring 12th did.
Finally, we'd be remiss if we didn't mention the Chicago-area 3rd District and its conservative Democratic congressman, Dan Lipinski. The 3rd backed Clinton 55-40, not too different from Obama's 56-43 win here. However, Lipinski has always voted like a Democrat in red territory; in 2014, Lipinski filled out a candidate questionnaire from the conservative Illinois Family Institute and said he supported an amendment to the constitution that would outlaw same-sex marriage. The 3rd can do better.
We turn next to Oregon's five congressional districts. Clinton carried the Beaver State 52-41, a small drop from Obama's 55-42 win. Clinton won the same four congressional districts that Obama carried, but one was excruciatingly close.
While Obama took Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio's 4th District 52-45, Clinton defeated Trump here 46.1-46.0, a margin of 554 votes. DeFazio himself easily won re-election 55-40 against Art Robertson in this seat, which includes both liberal Eugene and more conservative areas along the coast and inland. The GOP has never had much luck recruiting a viable candidate against DeFazio, who decisively defeated that very same Art Robertson during the 2010 and 2014 GOP waves, and in 2012 for good measure. But if DeFazio leaves this seat behind, the GOP could make a serious play for it.
The 5th District, which is centered around Salem, was close, but Clinton's margin of victory was slightly better than Obama's. Obama won the 5th 50.5-47.1, but Clinton carried it 48.3-44.1. Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader beat an underfunded Republican 53-43, and he also won by double digits against a weak opponent in the 2014 wave. This is another seat that could be competitive if Schrader retires, or if Team Red lands a much stronger opponent. Oregon's other three seats look very safe for the party that holds them. Clinton won the suburban Portland 1st 57-35, and took the Portland-based 3rd 71-22. Trump carried the inland 2nd 57-36.
● Site Contests: With winners now called in every contested tossup race this year, we're thrilled to announce the winner of the 2016 Daily Kos Elections predictions contest: zachccohen! Out of a possible 31 points, Zach scored the highest at 26. For his efforts, he will enjoy treats generously donated by our contest sponsor, Green's Babka! You can find the full results, including your guesses, here.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
