Leading Off
● Philippines – president and legislature (May 9)
The Philippines and the U.S. have long held close cultural ties, stemming from the former country's history as an American territory and its adoption of English as one of its two official languages. But in a potentially worrying bit of symmetry, Filipinos have elected their own Trump-esque strongman, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, to the presidency of the world’s 12th most populous country of 103 million people. In contrast with our two-party system, Duterte was able to win with only 39 percent of the vote in a crowded field where his closest opponent took just over 23 percent. The controversial president-elect is accused of sanctioning extra-judicial mass killings of alleged drug traffickers, has suggested journalists who are murdered did something to deserve their fate, has made horrific rape jokes, and is an unrepentant, self-described "womanizer."
Duterte's appeal comes from his reputation for fighting crime and corruption (Davao City, once one of the most dangerous places in the Philippines, is now called the "most peaceful city in southeast Asia") and a brash, television-friendly personality. Duterte belongs to the nominally left-wing party PDP-Laban, and he does hold some progressive positions. He's supportive of LGBT rights, minority Muslim rights, and is pro-contraception in a staunchly Catholic country, so his brand of populism is not quite the same as the xenophobia practiced by Trump or right-wing extremists in Europe.
However, Filipino political parties typically don't have strong ideological positions, and political organizations tend to function more as dynastic or clientelistic networks for gaining power and wealth, with politicians regularly switching parties. Duterte himself has faced criticism that he has used his political connections for personal enrichment. He will now serve a single six-year term and cannot seek re-election.
In better news, Rep. Leni Robredo of the centrist Liberal Party narrowly won the vice presidency over Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late far-right Filipino dictator Ferdinand Marcos. (Unlike in the U.S., the president and vice president are elected separately and often come from different parties.) The Liberal Party, which outgoing president Benigno Aquino III belongs to, also did well in the country's legislative elections, winning the most seats in both houses, though it wound up well short of a majority in both. And in a notable step, the country elected its first transgender congresswoman, Geraldine Roman, likely putting the Philippines years ahead of the United States on that front. Finally, world-famous boxing champion Manny Pacquiao, who'd previously come under attack for his anti-LGBT statements, made the step up from lower house representative to senator and is widely rumored to be eying a future presidential bid himself.
Oceania
● Australia – legislature (July 2)
After taking power in an internal party coup last fall and pushing through electoral reforms to weaken smaller parties, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has called an election for July 2. Turnbull leads the Liberals, which is the center-right party in Australia, and faces opposition leader Bill Shorten of the Labor Party. Also competing are the National Party, a rural right-wing party that serves in close coalition with the Liberals, and the Australian Greens, which have just one seat in the House but a healthy presence in the Senate, thanks to the different methods each chamber uses to elect its members.
This election is a "double dissolution" election, which means that the entire Senate, rather than the usual half, will go before voters, along with the entire House of Representatives. The House is elected in single-seat constituencies by single transferable vote (so voters rank the candidates), a system that invariably results in Labor or the Liberal/National coalition winning almost every seat despite the fact that over 20 percent of the country regularly votes for other parties. For example, around 15 percent of voters support Green Party candidates, but those votes end up counting overwhelmingly for Labor candidates who are ranked second on these ballots.
The Senate, by contrast, is elected proportionally, with each of Australia's six states electing 12 senators and the country's two territories electing two apiece. In previous elections, voters would vote for just one party (as opposed to ranking every candidate), and if that party was eliminated through the instant runoff process, it could send those votes to another party on a prearranged list. This resulted in smaller parties making deals to send votes to each other, resulting in the election of a senator from the "Motoring Enthusiasts Party," among others.
Under the new system championed by Turnbull, voters can vote for one candidate, rank some of the candidates on the ballot, or rank all of the candidates on the ballot. This should result in a decrease of minor parties making it into the Senate. The liberals hope this will make it easier to pass legislation through the Senate by reducing the influence of smaller parties, and the Greens (who provided the votes to get the change through) hope to gain seats as a result.
Two-party polling has tightened considerably since Turnbull's honeymoon period after his takeover last fall. The Liberals had led by as much as 10 points, but recent polls have shown Labor inching ahead. Turnbull is still faring far better than his predecessor, Tony Abbott, since Labor led the Liberals by 10 points in the weeks leading up to Abbott's overthrow.
Asia
● Mongolia – legislature (June 29)
Mongolia's parliamentary elections will see the center-right Democratic Party and its junior coalition partners, the left-of-center Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party and the centrist Civil Will-Green Party, try to defend their hold on power against the opposition center-left Mongolian People's Party. The last few years of low commodity prices and weak demand from Mongolia's largest trading partner, China, have contributed to sluggish economic growth in the export-dependent nation; those issues will likely play a large role in the upcoming election and give the opposition a fighting chance to win.
Europe
● Austria – president (May 22)
Elections for Austria's mostly-ceremonial presidency are usually a sleepy affair compared to the country's parliamentary elections. This year, however, saw an unprecedented collapse for both the long dominant center-left Social Democratic Party and the center-right Austrian People's Party, who were shut out of the runoff for the first time ever, amidst a surge for the far right. The center-left Green-backed candidate Alexander Van der Bellen barely prevailed by just 0.7 percent in the runoff over Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer.
Had Hofer won, he would have been Europe's first far-right head of state since Spanish dictator Francisco Franco's regime came to an end in 1975. The Freedom Party's newfound support comes amid a backlash to Austria's handling of the refugee crisis and immigration from the Middle East and North Africa, which has buoyed similar right-wing populist parties across Europe. The Freedom Party's strong showing is likely a harbinger of what is to come in 2018's parliamentary election, where the party has galloped into first place in opinion polls with a third of the vote, threatening the current grand coalition between the Social Democrats and People's Party.
● Cyprus – legislature (May 22)
The Republic of Cyprus is unique among Europe's democracies in that it uses a presidential system rather than a parliamentary one. Its recent legislative elections were thus unlikely to significantly change the balance of power. President Nicos Anastasiades' center-right Democratic Rally (DISY) remained the largest party, but it lost support and only won roughly one-third of the seats. Cyprus is also deeply unusual in that its main left-leaning party isn't a center-left social democratic or labor-based party like in much of Europe, but rather a communist party, the Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL). AKEL suffered its worst ever result since Cyprus gained independence in 1960, winning just over a quarter of the vote. The centrist Democratic Party came in third with 15.5 percent of the vote and will likely remain a key player in any working majority.
Despite large disagreements over economic policy, both AKEL and DISY support efforts to reunify the internationally recognized Greek-majority Republic of Cyprus with the breakaway Turkish-majority Republic of Northern Cyprus, which has been ruled separately ever since a Turkish military invasion in 1974. AKEL and DISY in support some form of federalism and Anastasiades in particular has made a strong effort to reach an agreement with leaders in Northern Cyprus.
Aside from AKEL, most of the opposition parties, including the Democratic Party, are opposed to a federal solution and support either a unitary state, where Greek Cypriots would dominate, or the status quo. New parties opposed to a federal system were the main ones to gain in this year's election as all of the major parties lost support. Three new parties won seats, including a center-left anti-austerity party and a right-wing party that split from DISY over its stance on reunification. The far-right National Popular Front (ELAM), which is aligned with Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, also won seats for the first time. Although the pro-federalism AKEL and DISY still have a majority together, DISY will likely continue to have difficulty passing its legislative agenda on economic policy.
● Ireland – legislature
Two months after Ireland's election produced a historic hung parliament, the country finally has a new government. The incumbent coalition led by the center-right Fine Gael and the junior center-left Labour Party lost its majority after presiding over unpopular austerity policies, but the main opposition center-right Fianna Fail couldn't form a majority either, thanks to a surge in support for independents and smaller left-wing parties such as Sinn Fein (which has repositioned itself as an anti-austerity party). Although both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are on the center to center-right, the two parties share a bitter rivalry with roots in Ireland's civil war in the 1920s.
Despite talk of an unprecedented grand coalition between the two, Fianna Fail instead remained in the opposition but agreed to allow Fine Gael to form a minority government until at least September of 2018. A grand alliance could have helped realign Irish politics towards a more traditional left-right division, which likely would have benefited Sinn Fein as the main opposition and damaged the long-term prospects of Fianna Fail, since its economic policies are typically to the left of Fine Gael but to the right of the left-leaning parties. But that realignment has now been postponed if not forestalled altogether. The new minority government could prove unstable, and by serving in the opposition, Fianna Fail might gain if Ireland holds early elections before the current parliament's five-year term is over.
● Macedonia – legislature (TBD)
Macedonia’s elections have been delayed yet again, amid ongoing controversy we previously covered here and here. In more recent news, Macedonia's right-wing president pardoned all the prominent figures under investigation for political wiretapping—all from his own party, of course. Thanks to this mass pardon and concerns about electoral fraud, opposition parties had threatened to boycott the elections; to stem the ongoing crisis, European Union officials convinced the government not to hold the next election in June, as had originally been scheduled. A new date has not been set as EU negotiators attempt to bring both sides to the bargaining table.
● Spain – legislature (June 26)
Spanish voters will head to the polls again on June 26 after December's election resulted in an unprecedented hung parliament, with the right-of-center People's Party losing its majority and the major parties unable to agree on any workable coalition. In a significant development, the left-wing, anti-austerity Podemos and the far-left United Left agreed to run on a joint ticket to avoid wasted votes; UL took nearly 4 percent of the vote in 2015 but won just two of 350 seats. The new alliance Unidos Podemos ("UP") is thus poised to become the largest party on the left and the second-largest overall.
The center-left Socialists and center-right Citizens parties reached a coalition agreement earlier this year, but it was mostly pointless since even combined, the two parties were still well short of a majority and couldn't prevent new elections—and they'll likely remain a minority even after the next round of polling. However, even if legislative leaders pursue more logical ideological groupings, such as the Socialists and the UP on the left, or Citizens and the even more conservative People's Party on the right, either side could still fall short of a majority.
Indeed, polling shows the potential for another "hung parliament," the term used to describe a situation where no ruling alliance can form. That outcome could extend Spain's political gridlock and possibly lead to a new governing arrangement, such as a grand coalition between the left and the right; an effort by the major parties to win support from separatist parties, such as those in Catalonia; or maybe even an unlikely third election to try to resolve the impasse.
● United Kingdom – regional and local elections (May 5); referendum on EU membership (June 23)
The United Kingdom held a variety of elections last month, headlined by the election of London's first Muslim mayor, Labour Member of Parliament Sadiq Khan. Khan defeated Conservative opponent Zac Goldsmith by a 57-43 margin in the second round of an instant runoff. Goldsmith's campaign was severely criticized for race-baiting, including playing up Khan's religious and ethnic background with Hindu and Sikh voters who may have mistrusted a Muslim with Pakistani heritage. Fortunately, Goldsmith's invidious tactics didn't translate into victory.
Outside London, most bodies up for election kept the same governing party in power. No significant changes occurred in the English local councils; Labour retained the Welsh parliament; the Scottish National Party retained the Scottish Parliament; and Northern Ireland's power-sharing setup between unionists and nationalists parties was left essentially undisturbed. Notable results include the Scottish Conservatives beating out Scottish Labour for second place and the rise of the xenophobic UK Independence Party ("UKIP") as a force in Wales. More in-depth coverage can be found in our British elections roundup.
UK voters will soon return to the ballot box on June 23 to decide whether or not to leave the European Union (a proposal nicknamed "Brexit"). We first covered the referendum when it was called in February and discussed both the benefits of leaving (the country would be able to impose tighter border controls, for instance) and the costs (it would simultaneously lose access to favorable trade arrangements as well as its place in pan-European decision-making).
In the intervening months, polling between the "Remain" and "Leave" camps has remained tight, and the outcome is still uncertain. The Remain campaign is led by Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron as well as Labour and the Liberal Democrats, though Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn seems less than enthusiastic despite formally endorsing the Remain position. The Leave campaign is led by Conservative rebels who are bucking Cameron, including outgoing London Mayor Boris Johnson and former Justice Secretary Michael Gove, as well as UKIP.
Cameron has put on whatever the soccer equivalent is of a full-court press, as many observers believe a loss could lead to the prime minister's resignation. Cameron has focused largely on touting the EU's economic benefits to Britain while warning of the pain leaving would cause. The Leave campaign has concentrated primarily on immigration, accurately arguing that the UK cannot implement limits on intra-European migration while a member of the EU. Many outside Britain have weighed in as well, with many world leaders advocating Remain, including President Barack Obama. Donald Trump, to the extent he even understands the question, is one of the few prominent figures outside Britain to advocate for Leave.
Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the urban centers of England are expected to vote for Remain, while the English countryside is expected to vote for Leave. If Leave prevails, there is a good chance the Scottish National Party would in turn seek a second referendum on independence, after 2014's effort failed by a 55-45 margin. (A key argument against independence at the time was that Scotland would have to go through a years-long process to rejoin the EU; a Brexit win would render that issue moot.)
In one last election of note in the UK, there is a by-election (special election) to fill Khan's seat in Parliament on June 16. The seat has always been held by Labour since its creation in the 1970s, but Khan only won it by 5 percent in the last election over the Conservatives. Labour should hold onto the seat, though a loss here would be bad news for the party.
Middle East/North Africa
● Iran – legislative runoffs (April 29)
Not all of Iran's legislative elections were settled in February, as 68 seats in the country's legislature went to a runoff after no candidate received 25 percent of the vote in the first round. As usual, Iran's murky political landscape made the meaning of the results less than clear, though conservative politicians unquestionably suffered compared to their more moderate opponents. Thirty-eight seats were won by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's allies, which included both reformists and more moderate conservatives. Conservatives won 18 seats and independents the remaining 12. Overall, no single group will have a majority of the new legislature, though it is expected to be more friendly to Rouhani than the previous one.
Central America/Caribbean
● Dominican Republic – president and legislature (May 15)
As we previewed last month, center-left President Danilo Medina comfortably won a second term, winning 62 percent compared to just 35 for second-place finisher Luis Abinader. Medina's Dominican Liberation Party also maintained comfortable majorities in both chambers of the legislature. Strong economic growth likely contributed to Medina's ability to avoid a runoff, a first for a Dominican presidential election.
South America
● Peru – president (June 5)
Peru will hold the runoff for its presidential election on June 5 after no candidate won a first-round majority in April. Keiko Fujimori, leader of the right-wing party Popular Force and daughter of jailed ex-President Alberto Fujimori, led in the first round with 40 percent of the vote over center-right ex-Prime Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski of Peruvians for Change, who came in distant second with 21 percent. Fujimori's party won a solid majority in the legislature and opinion polls give her a narrow lead, but Latin American countries like Peru can be notoriously difficult to poll. If Kuczynski can consolidate the supporters of other candidates on the left and center, he might still be able to prevail.
The Daily Kos International Elections Digest is compiled by David Beard and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from James Lambert and Daniel Donner, and is edited by David Nir.
