The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MO-Sen: On Tuesday, Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley announced that he would seek the GOP nomination to challenge Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill.
Hawley seems to have already emerged as a rare candidate who has the love of the GOP's many warring factions. Hawley has reportedly been the preferred recruit of the NRSC for months, while their frequent antagonists at the anti-tax Club for Growth announced back in August that they'd already raised $10 million to support him. And while the white supremacist site Breitbart has instinctively targeted plenty of allies of the GOP establishment, they've given Hawley fawning coverage. Several prominent state Republicans, including ex-Sen. John Danforth, have also been calling for Hawley to run for months.
Hawley may not have the GOP primary to himself, though. Two state representatives, Marsha Haefner and Paul Curtman, have formed exploratory committees, and don't seem interested in deferring to him. Rep. Ann Wagner, whom Hawley seems to have dissuaded from running herself, sounds interested in supporting an alternative to the attorney general.
Hawley only won elected office for the first time last year, when he led the GOP's statewide ticket and won the attorney general race 58.5-41.5. As we've noted before, Hawley has based much of his conservative appeal on his claim that he was deeply involved in winning the Hobby Lobby case that allowed employers to refuse to provide contraceptive coverage if doing so violated the company's "sincerely held religious beliefs." In reality, Hawley didn't get anywhere near oral arguments before the Supreme Court and was the last attorney listed on the plaintiffs' brief, but conservative voters may just not care.
McCaskill does have one ready-made line of attack against Hawley. During his successful campaign, Hawley ran ads that showed politicians climbing ladders to argue that he was different and wasn't just looking for a new office to springboard himself to bigger things. We'll see if voters actually care that Hawley is already looking for a promotion after less than a year on the job.
No matter what, McCaskill will have a tough race on her hands. While Missouri used to be one of the swingiest of swing states, it's made a very hard right turn in recent years. Romney won 54-44 here, and Trump carried the state 56-38. Even if Trump continues to poll poorly nationwide next fall, Missouri may be the type of place he might remain an asset to the GOP. McCaskill herself is a very tough campaigner who famously won re-election by helping her preferred opponent, then-Rep. Todd Akin, win a three-way GOP primary, but Hawley may be too strong to be dispatched that way.
Still, if McCaskill loses, it won't be without a tough fight. Hawley himself has only been through one campaign, and we'll see soon enough if his Chosen One image can survive a real battle. While Republicans in the state and nationwide have been drooling over Hawley all cycle, one unnamed Republican strategist mused in July that he's "never had to prove himself" but rather has "this golden-boy glow from afar." One way or another, Hawley will get the chance to demonstrate if he's worthy of the hype.
3Q 2017 Fundraising
● OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): $2.6 million raised, $8.3 million cash-on-hand
● PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc): $2.2 million raised, $7 million cash-on-hand
● WI-Sen: Kevin Nicholson (R): $400,000 raised
● WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D): $900,000 raised
Senate
● UT-Sen: Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch hasn't unequivocally declared that he's running for an eighth term next year but has so far acted like he's plowing full-steam ahead with it. However, many Utah Republicans are eager to see a change of in next year's election, and Boyd Matheson is the latest who says he is considering a primary challenge to the longtime incumbent. Matheson is a former chief of staff to Utah's other Sen. Mike Lee, himself an ultra-conservative who first won in 2010 by ousting longtime incumbent Bob Bennett at the party convention. Matheson accordingly excoriated his party's Senate leadership and conveyed that he wouldn't support Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Politico reports that Matheson would be unlikely to have the support of Lee if he does run. However, they also relay that Matheson recently met with several influential members of the party's hard-right, including Steve Bannon. Most notably, he met with Club for Growth head David McIntosh and Senate Conservatives Fund leader Ken Cuccinelli. Those two groups in particular have shelled out large amounts of cash over the years trying to back anti-establishment conservatives in primaries, and their support could consequently prove significant for Matheson if he ends up going through with his plan to primary Hatch from the right.
● WV-Sen: Both Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Rep. Evan Jenkins are out with their fundraising totals from July to September, and Jenkins' haul is surprisingly weak. Jenkins took in just $221,000, a very underwhelming haul ahead of a competitive GOP primary and (if he's lucky) an expensive battle with Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. Jenkins kicked off his bid in the spring and raised only $313,000 during the second quarter of 2017, so he does seem to have a problem.
By contrast, Morrisey entered the race in July and raised $672,000 over the following three months. Jenkins was able to transfer his entire House campaign account to his Senate bid, so he unsurprisingly leads Morrisey $1.26 million to $548,000 in cash-on-hand, but if he can't pick up the pace, that lead could evaporate before too long.
Gubernatorial
● KS-Gov: Could businessman Greg Orman be back for another election? The Wichita Eagle reports that unnamed sources say that Orman is gearing up to run for governor next year in the open-seat contest to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Sam Brownback, although there's no word from Orman himself. He previously challenged Republican Sen. Pat Roberts in 2014 as a moderate independent and lost by just 53-43 despite that year's GOP wave. That result came about after the beleaguered Democratic nominee dropped out of the race so that the Republican incumbent would at least face a single more moderate challenger. Orman performed unusually well in that race all things considered, and his personal wealth and connections could make him a strong candidate next year.
Of course, Democrats are very much not desperate enough this time to simply field no nominee for governor after Brownback's administration ran the state's finances into the ground and tarnished the GOP brand up and down the ballot. The Kansas GOP has since engaged in a civil war between ultra-conservatives aligned with Brownback and moderate legislators, many of whom have defected to vote with Democrats and override some of Brownback's vetoes, but not all. Although Kansas remains a deeply Republican state, this civil war gives Democrats a major opening next year to pull off an upset by peeling off disaffected moderates.
Consequently, the wealthy Orman self-funding his own centrist campaign as an independent would likely massively benefit the ultimate Republican nominee by soaking up the votes of centrist Republicans who are distraught over Brownback's legacy but not yet sold on a Democrat. Orman may be hoping that Republicans nominate another hardliner like Brownback so that he can sneak through the middle with a bare plurality, but there's a reason why this strategy fails to work in almost every election given the polarized nature of our two-party electoral system.
Accordingly, Orman would go from receiving de facto support from Democrats like he did in 2014 to being the scourge of their existence if he runs next year. Democrats already have three major candidates in the race with former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, state House Minority Leader Jim Ward, and ex-state Secretary of Agriculture Josh Svaty. That Team Blue has a competitive primary for the first time in decades is indicative of how excited they are to capitalize on the opportunity of Brownback's hated tenure, but an Orman campaign could help shatter those dreams before the general election even begins.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, former state Rep. Ed O'Malley upgraded his campaign from the exploratory phase to officially running. O'Malley is aligned with the moderate faction in the party, but has been out of office for a decade. He joins a very crowded GOP primary that includes Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer, former state Sen. Jeff Barnett, Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer, Secretary of State Kris Kobach, businessman Mark Hutton, and businessman Wink Hartman.
● ME-Gov: GOP Sen. Susan Collins has been considering a bid here for months, and her team has revealed she will announce her plans Friday.
● MN-Gov: Ex-Gov. Tim Pawlenty reportedly has been considering seeking the GOP nod for his old job again while publicly maintaining that he's "politically retired." The Minnesota press corp has not been fooled into thinking that "politically retired" means "I'm not running," and on Monday, several reporters pressed Pawlenty to actually say he was ruling out a 2018 bid. As Minnesota Public Radio's Brian Bakst transcript demonstrates, Pawlenty very much refused to say he wasn't going to run:
Pawlenty: "I'm politically retired and, as I tweeted last week, there's no change in that status."
Reporter: "What does retired mean to you?"
Pawlenty: "It means I'm not participating. I'm retired."
Reporter: "So is that a guarantee you won't run in 2018?"
Pawlenty: "It's a statement that I'm politically retired and there's no change in that status and you should plan with that in mind."
Reporter: "Is it possible there would be a change in that status? You're not closing the door here."
Pawlenty: "When somebody is retired it means they're moving on to other things. That's usually what it means."
Reporter: "So under no circumstance will you be running for governor in 2018."
Pawlenty: "In life you never say never because things can change. But I am politically retired. I don't have any pronouncements or changes in that status today so there's really nothing to report. There's nothing new. I'm retired. I'm not participating in the campaign. My status as a politician is 'retired.'"
A few Republicans actually have entered the race, but T-Paw doesn't seem sold on the field. Last month, the Star-Tribune's J. Patrick Coolican reported that the former governor was "watching to see if the current field is locking down financial and political support." Besides Pawlenty, the biggest potential GOP candidate is state House Speaker Kurt Daudt, who has been publicly indecisive about whether he'll give up his powerful post to run.
● NM-Gov: Campaign finance reports from the last six months are in for all the Democratic candidates in next year's open seat race. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who represents Albuquerque and has the support of much of the state Democratic establishment, raised $1.4 million during this time and has $1.6 million in the bank. Businessman Jeff Apodaca, the son of a former governor, raised $462,000 and self-funded another $450,000, and he has $700,000 on-hand. State Sen. Joseph Cervantes brought in $150,000 from donors, self-funded another $400,000, and he has $747,000 on-hand.
● NV-Gov: GOP Attorney General Adam Laxalt originally planned to announce he was running for governor on Oct. 2, but he understandably delayed things after the horrific mass shooting on the Las Vegas Strip. Laxalt now has his "special announcement" set for Nov. 1.
● PA-Gov: Attorney Laura Ellsworth had previously said she was looking at running for this seat, and she joined next year's race governor on Tuesday. Ellsworth runs the Pittsburgh office of Jones Day, a top national law firm, and has also led the local Chamber of Commerce, but beyond that, it's not clear whether she has the kind of political or financial connections to run a competitive race. Already running are wealthy businessman Paul Mango and state Sen. Scott Wagner, who's also rich (and an utter jagoff). State House Speaker Mike Turzai is also considering a bid against Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, who first won office in 2014.
● SC-Gov: For an incumbent, Gov. Henry McMaster doesn't have a particularly smooth path ahead of him in next year's GOP primary, thanks to the fact that he was only elevated to the job earlier this year from his post as lieutenant governor, and to an ongoing scandal involving his top political consultants. But he got a little bit of succor Tuesday, when South Carolina's senior senator, Lindsey Graham, endorsed him. Graham also said he'd attend a fundraiser that Donald Trump is headlining for McMaster next week.
● WI-Gov: On Tuesday, attorney Matt Flynn announced he was joining the crowded Democratic primary. Flynn served as state party chair in the 1980s and lost his fourth and most recent bid for Congress in 2004, so it seems unlikely he'll emerge as a major factor here.
● WY-Gov: The GOP primary for this open seat race is only slowly coming together, and one potentially strong candidate is intent to take even more of his sweet time to decide. The Casper Star-Tribune writes that state Treasurer Mark Gordon has said he's unlikely to decide before March. Secretary of State Ed Murray, who looks like the other big potential GOP candidate to watch, has yet to lay out a timeline. On the Democratic side, Team Blue seems to have consolidated behind ex-state House Minority Leader Mary Throne.
House
● AZ-02: EMILY's List, an influential group that works to elect pro-choice Democratic women, has endorsed ex-Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's bid to take on GOP Rep. Martha McSally in this competitive Tucson seat. Kirkpatrick, who represented a neighboring seat until she unsuccessfully ran for the Senate last year, faces another female Democrat, former Defense Department official Mary Matiella, in the Democratic primary.
● MA-03: The Democratic primary for Massachusetts' open 3rd District has grown quite crowded of late, but one potential candidate is staying away. State Sen. Eileen Donoghue, who came in second in the special election for this seat in 2007 and had considered a second try, said on Tuesday that she'd seek re-election instead.
● MI-11: State Rep. Laura Cox, who had been mentioned as a potential Republican candidate for Michigan's now-open 11th District, has now more-or-less confirmed she's looking at the race, telling a reporter, "I have not made any decisions." Cox is married to former state Attorney General Mike Cox. So far, three notable candidates are running in each party's primary for this suburban Detroit seat that backed Donald Trump 50-45.
● TN-07: So far, state Sen. Mark Green has the GOP primary to himself in this safely red suburban Nashville seat, but he may have some competition before too long. Nashville Songwriters Association International head Lee Thomas Miller, who has written songs for country music stars for Garth Brooks, Brad Paisley, and Chris Stapleton, says he's been approached by unnamed Tennessee GOP political figures about running, and he is considering it. Miller often lobbies Congress about copyright issues, so he may have some useful connections in the political world. Miller said he'd discuss the idea with his family over the weekend, though he didn't give a firm timeline for when he'll decide.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso has the results:
Florida HD-44: Republicans got a break from their recent spate of special election losses; Bobby Olszewski defeated Democrat Eddy Dominguez by a 56-44 margin to hold on to this seat.
This Orlando-area seat went 51-45 for Hillary Clinton in 2016 but backed Mitt Romney 53-46 in 2012. Dominguez wasn't actually on the ballot: The original Democratic nominee, Paul Chandler, was forced to withdraw due to questions surrounding his eligibility to run, but he was removed too late to substitute his name.