ME-Gov, ME-Sen: Longtime Maine Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican, had been considering for months whether to run for governor next year to succeed fellow Republican Paul LePage, and the popular senator's indecision had weighed heavily on the plans of candidates from both parties. On Friday, Collins finally declared that she will ultimately remain in the Senate and stay out of the governor's race, likely setting off a chain reaction as the state's political juggernaut not running creates significant space for lesser-known candidates.
Collins has long been overwhelmingly popular amongst the broader electorate and would have been an extremely tough general election foe for Democrats to face. However, her highly visible opposition to Trumpcare may have seriously damaged her standing with her own party had she chosen to run in the closed primary, and a PPP poll from back in August showed her losing a hypothetical primary by 44-33 to former state health commissioner Mary Mayhew, who is already running. Collins may have ultimately felt that a tough primary simply wasn't worth it.
Without Collins, the Republican field is consequently wide open. In addition to Mayhew, state Senate Majority Leader and Garrett Mason and state House Minority Leader Ken Fredette are also running in the Republican primary, but several other candidates could also foreseeably jump in now.
Collins' decision to stay out of this contest will consequently make Maine one of the top pickup opportunities for Democrats next year in this blue-leaning yet very swingy state. Team Blue already has a crowded primary that includes state Attorney General Janet Mills, former state House Speaker Mark Eves, former state Sen. James Boyle, businessman Adam Cote, and prominent activist Betsy Sweet. State Sen. Mark Dion, who is a former sheriff for Cumberland County, also jumped into the race in recent days.
Looming over next year's primary is Maine's new instant-runoff voting system, which voters passed in a 2016 ballot initiative. Although a non-binding state Supreme Court ruling indicated this past spring that the law may ultimately be unconstitutional for state-level general elections, the court’s advisory opinion likely won't affect state-level primaries (and federal races). While the state legislature may yet still try to rectify the situation to avoid near-certain lawsuits and legal chaos, for now the dynamics of the primary race for both parties could be totally upended by the new electoral system.