Hello folks! I am back with my 2018 Senate Ratings. Three months after my first ratings, it’s time to do an update (the next update will be in January 2018). Thanks all who commented on my first ratings, I always appreciate feedback. There are a handful of changes and that gets the bulk of my attention but I note some other things of interest. Onto the ratings:
Safe D Seats (14): CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, RI, VT, WA
No change among the amount of Safe Democratic seats. 14 of the 25 Democratic seats that are up are considered safe. Seats of interest:
- California: Dianne Feinstein
Feinstein is running for reelection despite being age 85 and she could be in some trouble given the way she’s angered progressive activists in deep blue California for being not liberal enough. The question is can progressives unite around one anti-Feinstein candidate? If so, expect a primary similar to 2014’s Mississippi Senate GOP Primary with McDaniel vs. Cochran. However, the difference is that in California, all the candidates from any party run in a jungle primary, with the top 2 advancing to the runoff. So there’s a chance that like with California’s senate election last fall, the top 2 in the runoff could be a pair of Democrats. Regardless, whether it’s Feinstein vs. a Republican, or Feinstein vs. a liberal challenger in the runoff, expect an easy Democratic victory.
- New Jersey: Bob Menendez
Menendez’s corruption trial continues to go on, and he’s probably going to be found not-guilty if only because of how hard it is to be found guilty in those types of trials. I think it’s best for him if he steps aside even if he is acquitted and allows someone else to take his place, but either way, this seat is still safe for Democrats.
Likely D Seats (3): MI, VA, PA
- Michigan: Debbie Stabenow
Months after the initial Kid Rock rumbles and the musical artist actually named Robert Ritchie has still not declared. Let’s face it folks: he’s probably not running. In that case, the candidates who have declared are former state Supreme Court Justice Robert Young and businessman John James, neither of whom are Tier I nor Tier II challengers. The one lurking “ace in the hole” is Fred Upton, longtime Rep. from MI-06, which is in the southwestern corner of the state. He’s considering retiring or running for senate as a last hurrah before retirement. In 2012, he would’ve been Tier I, but today I struggle to see him as that, if for only because of how his hands got dirty with the way healthcare went down back in May (remember, it was his amendment that saved AHCA in the house) and Stabenow could hammer him for that. Even if he runs, I think Stabenow is a very strong favorite to keep her seat.
- Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr.
Casey has a legitimate opponent in the form of Rep. Lou Barletta from PA-11, a district that stretches across the eastern part of the state outside of the Philly suburbs. A US Rep. is normally a Tier I opponent, but Casey is still a strong incumbent who has won twice before and has good name recognition and poll numbers. And Lou Barletta is very Trumpy, with hardline immigration views. In an environment that could be strongly anti-Trump and with Trump having low approval ratings, that could not be a good thing.
Lean D Seats (6): MT, OH, WV, WI, FL, ND
- Montana: Jon Tester
Jon Tester is probably the luckiest person in the US senate, taking that title from Claire McCaskill (more on her in a bit). Tester himself is a pretty strong senator who has done well for himself in Montana. But he’s been helped immensely in this cycle by the promotion of Ryan Zinke, his only potential Tier I opponent, to Interior Secretary. Three months after our first rating, the best opponent for Tester is still State Auditor Matt Rosendale, a man who previously had severe fundraising problems. And he still has fundraising problems. While Tester raked in $1.2 M in fundraising in 2017’s 3Q, Rosendale pulled in just over $400,000. Tester also fundraised $2 M in 2Q and has $5.4 M in hand. Rosendale has…. a lot less than that. It seems all but certain that Rosendale will be the main opponent for Tester and boy does he have to be happy. If this weren’t such a red state, this would be a Likely D seat.
- West Virginia: Joe Manchin III
The most fascinating senator in America, Joe Manchin exists as the last of his kind, a true favorite son. Even as West Virginia has taken a hard right turn in the last 16 years, it still loves its one Democratic senator, Joe Manchin. Cook Political has this seat inexplicably as a toss up, if only because it’s West Virginia and a Democrat. That’s BS logic. Last fall, West Virginia elected a Democrat as governor (though he switched parties this year), while giving nearly 70% of the vote to Trump. Trump carried every state senate district in the state, yet the state senate is only 22-12 GOP. Ticket splitting still exists in West Virginia. Many people have compared Manchin to former Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor, who was in a similar situation in 2014: a blue senator in a deep red state who had no trouble with reelection in the past. Pryor of course was doomed to lose in a landslide in the 2014 senate wave. The problem with that take is that data doesn’t back it up. In August 2013 (15 months before Election Day), as Harry Enten notes back in his days at The Guardian, Pryor held a +5.5 favorability rating and led challenger/eventual victor and current US Senator Tom Cotton by an average of 2.3 points. What about Joe Manchin? In August 2017, (15 months before Election Day), Joe Manchin has a +17 favorability rating of 51/34. Morning Consult in July had him at 57/31. And what about his challengers? He currently is set to face either Attorney General Patrick Morrisey or Rep. Evan Jenkins (WV-03). In August, a West Virginia Metro News poll had him up 51/37 over Morrisey and 50/40 over Jenkins. In September, the notoriously right-wing and not very credible Zogby Analytics had him up 45/38 over Morrisey and 49/36 over Jenkins. In June, the also right-wing and also not very credible People’s Pundit Daily had him up 50/41 over the mysterious “Generic Republican” which is impressive given that “Generic ____” always polls better than real candidates. No matter who polls this race, credible or not, non-partisan or right-leaning firms, everyone has found that Joe Manchin is still very popular in West Virginia and that he is doing very well against his opponents, who are Tier I challengers. Not just was his smallest horse race lead 7 points, but his smallest percentage was 45%, with the bulk being close to, if not over, 50%. Those are all clear signs that he’s the prohibitive favorite. Could things still change? Sure. But comparing him to Pryor at this juncture in the campaign is both wildly inaccurate and unfair to how strong Manchin is. Like with Tester, if this were not a very red state, it would be a likely D seat. But we’ll leave it in Lean D for now.
- Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin
Perhaps the most stunning whiff of all for Republican recruitment efforts has been Wisconsin. Montana and the aforementioned Tester is a solid runner up, but the difference is that Wisconsin has 5 Republicans as US Representatives. And Tammy Baldwin isn’t nearly as strong of an incumbent as Jon Tester is. And Wisconsin is also a state where the GOP is very competitive. Yet the best current challenger is Leah Vukmir, a state senator with low name recognition. Could Vukmir put up a great showing and win this seat? Sure. But she’s at best a Tier II opponent and that’s pushing it. I’d probably put her as a Tier III. Baldwin is a solid incumbent, not super vulnerable (when compared to others *cough* Flake *cough*), but her approval ratings are pretty iffy, with a lot of voters still not even knowing who she is. The combination of the incumbency advantage and the fact that the GOP has not conjured up a top opponent even though they absolutely could, both gives Baldwin the clear advantage in this race and perhaps a message that the GOP believes she’s stronger than she appears.
- Rating change: Likely D → Lean D = Florida: Bill Nelson
Our first rating change comes in the form of Florida. I was a bit aggressive last time around in the matchup between three term senator Bill Nelson and incumbent governor Rick Scott. Scott’s approval ratings have been on an upswing recently, and polls have showed this race close. However, Scott isn’t really a “popular governor”, it’s just he was unpopular not all that long ago. He’s still a very divided figure in the state of Florida and both of his statewide races came in strong GOP years and yet the only managed to eke out both wins. Nelson has the incumbent’s advantage and I still favor him in this race. It’s hard to fathom Bill Nelson losing to Rick Scott, but sure, it could happen. I don’t see it as likely, but this race isn’t as safe as my initial thought.
- Rating Change: Tilt D → Lean D = North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp
I’m abolishing the Tilt rating because if I had left it in, Heitkamp would have been the only tilted race. And I feel comfortable upgrading this rating to Lean D. Back in July I was mostly waiting to see who her opponent would be and it looks like it will not be a Tier I. Statewide US Rep. Kevin Cramer, a bonafide Tier I, has not said no but doesn’t appear to be running. He’s accumulated some recent baggage, and state senator Tom Campbell said early in the year that if Cramer ran for senate, he would run for US Rep and vice versa. Well given that Campbell is in the race and the only current opponent, that likely means that Cramer isn’t running. Outside of Campbell, there’s the potential for other candidates, as North Dakota has no shortage of Tier I GOPers, but we’re starting to close in on the end of the declaration period. Most all people who will declare candidacy for a 2018 office have done so already and it’s starting to seem like Campbell may be Heitkamp’s best opponent. And he’s only a state senator. The fact that most other North Dakotan Republicans aren’t interested in this race suggests that Heitkamp is a strong incumbent and every piece of reputable data suggests that, including her terrific approval ratings from Morning Consult. And then there’s the fact that she beat a Tier I opponent last time around in a pretty neutral environment (and a strongly anti-D one in ND). While Campbell is a wealthy man who will have a lot of money at his disposal, Heitkamp is a darn good politician and she is still the favorite for all those aforementioned reasons, plus the incumbency advantage.
Tossup (4): AZ, IN, MO, NV
- Rating Change: Tilt R → Tossup = Arizona: Jeff Flake
Jeff Flake is in a whole lot of trouble in Arizona, from every side, and I think it’s fair to say that he’s the most vulnerable senator up in 2018. The reason? He could feasibly lose to both the right or the left. He’s a very conservative Republican, which makes Democrats hate him, yet he’s taken the Never Trump stance against the President, which makes loyal Trumpers hate him. His most recent approval ratings are NSFW bad and he’s facing a primary challenge from Bannon and Trump backed immigration hardliner Kelli Ward. If he were to survive that primary, he would likely emerge from it with a divided base and depressed support from Trump fanatics. And then there’s his Democratic opponent. Last time around we had this race as a Tilt R, but remarked that it would become a tossup if Democrats landed a top tier challenger. And they got the best available, and only Tier I challenger out there: US Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-09). Since she is a member of the House of Representatives, she comes in with a war chest similar to Flake’s and her nature is important. While Arizona shifted towards the left big time in 2016 (Trump won it by just 3 and with less than 50% of the vote), it is still a decently conservative state. Running a far left liberal would not be smart and while Sinema’s moderate liberal nature angers progressives, she’s the right candidate to run a senate race in Arizona, a state Democrats have not won a senate race in since 1988. Flake’s current state is basically this.
- Rating Change: Tilt D → Tossup = Indiana: Joe Donnelly
When we looked at this race back in July, Donnelly did not have any major challengers, so I left it in Tilt D. Now, he has two pretty good opponents, Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer. Those two will duke it out in what figures to be a nasty primary, if it’s any consolation to Donnelly. The other advantage is that both are from very rural nowhereville areas. Donnelly hailed from the northern Indiana/South Bend-Michigan City area when he was in the house, an area that is necessary to a Democratic victory, so the fact that neither’s main demographic is the same as Donnelly’s is important. All signs say that Donnelly is pretty popular. As I said in July, no one gives him the credit he deserves for being an above average politician, and that I think he would’ve beaten Richard Mourdock even without the “God intended rape” comment. The state is still Indiana however, and Donnelly is still only a first termer. He is an incumbent so I think he’s a slight favorite, but the quality of opponent is just too high to justify this being in the Lean D category. There’s basically no polling on a Donnelly vs. Rokita or Donnelly vs. Messer matchup so it’s hard to know where things stand at the moment, but tossup seems like a safe category for now.
- Missouri: Claire McCaskill
McCaskill’s bid to get a third term out of Missouri is still a toss up one. DDHQ has this inexplicably as a Tilt R race but let’s look at this legitimately. McCaskill is set to take on Wonder Boy Attorney General Josh Hawley, who Republicans are just drooling over. They’ve promised him an insane amount of cash to fund his race and pretty much the entire party is high on him. How great is he though, and what has he actually done? Hawley was a lawyer who ran for and won the Attorney General of Missouri race last fall. That’s about it. His margin wasn’t super impressive, 58-41. Not really different from President Trump’s 57-39 margin in Missouri. I haven’t gotten to see enough of Hawley to know how good at politics he actually is. He’s formidable but he’s also not the second coming of Christ. And McCaskill is probably the most criminally underrated politician in the country. In the 2Q, McCaskill raised over $3 M and she repeated that in 3Q, most recently with over 30,000 individual donations. She’s also held a ton of town halls across Missouri recently. She seems to be angling for the populist, anti-corporation image as opposed to Hawley’s Super PAC funded campaign, which might not be a bad idea. All of the polls we have for this race have McCaskill losing. However, all of the polls were also commissioned by questionable right-wing firms (Club for Growth, Remington) with not-very-reputable history. Tossup seems very appropriate for this race.
- Nevada: Dean Heller
Welcome, to another episode of “how to fuck everything up”, Dean Heller edition. Dean Heller is still running for re-election, Jacky Rosen is still his opponent, and he’s still in a ton of trouble. But I’m going to talk about him just to bring up his dreadful poll numbers and how badly he messed up on health care. As for ugly polling, PPP found Heller trailing Rosen 42/41 in June, which is a really bad sign given that Rosen is largely unknown and incumbents generally always lead challengers that far out from Election Day, especially little known challengers. As for polling against the notorious “Generic Democrat”, Heller trailed 50-31 back in July and held a 22% approval rating!!!!!! Not as bad as Jeff Flake, but Heller is in a whole lot of trouble. And that was before the worst of his debacle with healthcare. Let’s review what happened: Heller said he was anti-Medicaid cuts for several months, held a presser with the pro-Medicaid/popular/centrist governor to affirm that. He then made no public stance on BCRA, a vicious anti-Medicaid bill until he voted no when it was going down. Then he got word that his billionaire donors were going to choke off his campaign funds, so he reversed his position and voted to open debate on Skinny Repeal, a kind bill to Medicaid but terrible to everything else. Then once it was clear that McCain was the 3rd vote to kill Skinny, Heller still voted yes! After that, he began drafting and put his name on a bill to demolish Medicaid worse than any plan before (Graham-Cassidy). And then that bill went down. Basically, Heller is in a ton of trouble and might be Joe Heck-ing his way out of a senate seat.
Likely R (2): TX, TN
- Texas: Ted Cruz
This is still Beto vs. Lyin’ Ted. It’s still a democratic longshot. FWIW, Beto is fundraising like crazy, having outraised Cruz ($3.8 M vs. $3.6 M) in the last two combined quarters.
- Rating Change: Safe R → Likely R = Tennessee: Open (Corker)
This is the big change from last time. Recently, Republican Senator Bob Corker announced he would not be seeking a third term. Now Tennessee is a very red state. It hasn’t elected a Democrat to Senate since Al Gore in 1990. Harold Ford Jr. came very, very close to winning this seat during the Democratic wave in 2006, but that result is hard to picture now. That said, a Democrat could win, it just wouldn’t look like what Ford’s map did. It would have to be off the backs of huge black turnout, combined with support from what Democrats remain in Tennessee and flipping suburban GOP voters blue. Long shot? Yes. But who knows. It’s not safe and a far right Bannon-picked GOP nominee combined with a strong centrist Democratic nominee could be a potential problem for Republicans.
Safe R (4): UT, WY, NE, MS
These are all very red states where Bannon is planning an insurgency against the incumbents. Could that create an opening? Maybe. But not likely.
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One note about Alabama: The Alabama special election to replace Jeff Sessions has been interesting, to say the least. Roy Moore is a man from the 19th century running in the 21st century and that has made this race exciting. Alabama Democrats have a pretty good candidate in Doug Jones. He’s a former attorney who says the right things, has no baggage and no political experience, and seems like a nice man. There’s really nothing to attack him on. Meanwhile, Moore has an insane amount of baggage to the point that The Hill is power ranking the craziest s*** that he’s said. But this is Alabama, and even that much baggage might not be enough to sink a Republican candidate. Moore did almost lose statewide election in 2012 to an unknown candidate, which gives Democrats a sliver of hope. Recent polls have showed Jones within striking distance but it is a Hail Mary. Regardless, it’s going to be the closest Senate race in Alabama since Jeff Sessions won the first time in 1996 and that was a very different Alabama than the one we have today (PVI was R+8, today it’s R+13). Even a close race would be a huge boost for Democrats going into 2018. If Jones pulls it off, it will be because of low GOP turnout, high black turnout, and enough normally hardcore white GOP voters, particularly educated ones around the big cities (Birmingham, Huntsville, Montgomery), to get turned off from Moore because of his ludicrous past comments.
Summary and upshot for 2018 and beyond: So what does all of this mean? Can Democrats capture a majority in 2018? It’s a long, longshot. They’d have to sweep the tossups and find a way to steal Texas or Tennessee. Possible in a wave election, but unlikely. However, I do have a belief, that in a 50-50 senate, Susan Collins (R) of Maine would switch caucuses and begin caucusing with Democrats. Why? For one, she’s left of center. According to GovTrack, she was more liberal than Tester, Heitkamp, King, Warner, Nelson, Manchin, and Donnelly in 2016. That’s 7 of the Democrats’ 48 senators. In a Republican party that’s moved farther and farther to the right, Collins looks increasingly out of place. And then there’s the basic fact that she owes nothing to Republican voters in general. According to an election analysis from 2014, she would’ve won re-election without a single Republican vote. There’s the fact that the misogynistic Reps. who populate the Republican congress have said degrading things about her and that the President attacks anyone who doesn’t agree with him. And then there’s the part about her probably losing a Republican primary in 2020. After the BCRA was voted down, PPP found her to be very unpopular with Republicans and in serious trouble of losing a future primary. If I’m Chuck Schumer in a 50-50 senate, I do what Tom Daschle did to Jim Jeffords back in 2001. I offer Collins the opportunity to have any committe chair she wants (except for Judiciary, obviously) and promise not to run anyone against her from the left in a 2020 election. That offer would both boost her power in the senate and basically guarantees her reelection in 2020. I have no idea how she turns that down.
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Thanks for reading, comments are always appreciated!