Election Day is breathing down our necks. Or it would be, if it were a thing that’s alive with lungs.
Anyway, Nov. 7 is literally just days away, breathing or not. Here’s what you should be paying attention to between now and then, and on Tuesday, and on Wednesday, probably, because you likely won’t be up all night tracking this stuff because you’re a normal human with work the next day and maybe want to get up in time to go for a run or make your kid’s lunch before school or something.
Don’t worry, though: We're not normal humans at all and will definitely be following all this and more into the wee hours, so come follow our liveblog starting Tuesday night at 7 p.m. ET at Daily Kos Elections.
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Meet Virginia: It’s the hottest game in town. Between a governor’s race featuring barrage of racist ads from Republican Ed Gillespie (and the attendant hand-wringing when a Latino organization had the temerity to run its own ad calling him out for those racist ads), a lieutenant governor’s race that’s flown mostly under the radar (because, unlike four years ago, it doesn’t feature a Republican who thinks yoga is evil), and an attorney general contest that features a progressive incumbent running against an attorney who once had his law license suspended when he forgot to pay his bar dues (because attention to deadlines and detail isn’t important in lawyering … wait), it’s easy to get caught up in all the excitement in the Old Dominion and forget about the rest of the country. But we’ll get to those other races, too, I promise.
- But while we’re talking Virginia, we’ve got to talk House of Delegates. Not only because it has a weird name (yes, it’s basically the state’s House of Representatives, but after being the House of Burgesses, they couldn’t be expected to settle for something so mundane), but also because crazy cool things are happening in elections there this year. Some crazy bad things, too, but we’ll get to that.
First of all, current status: The Virginia House has 100 seats. Currently, Democrats hold just 34 of them, and Republican hold the remaining 66.
- Not great, but lots of room for improvement for Team Blue. Hooray!
Prospects: Pretty good! … considering.
- The Democrats’ meager 34-member caucus in the House seems pretty odd in light of the fact that Democrats have won every—every—statewide election in Virginia from 2012 on.
- But Republicans controlled redistricting of this chamber in 2011, and they gerrymandered it pretty skillfully.
- Another factor has limited Democrats’ ability to make significant inroads against the Republican majority in recent elections: a dearth of candidates.
- In 2015, only 21 Democratic challengers took on incumbent Republican lawmakers in the House.
- But this year, it’s a completely different story: Democrats are running in 54 of the GOP’s 66 seats.
- With only 12 unchallenged Republicans, Republican resources are spread thinner this cycle than they’ve ever been in modern Virginia political history.
- On the flip side of the equation, only six Democratic lawmakers are facing Republican challengers, and of those, only three can be considered “serious” in terms of dollars raised and the partisan voting propensities of the districts.
Democrats need to flip 17 seats to win a majority in the Virginia House.
- That’s an almost inconceivable success rate for a single legislative chamber in a single night—without even beginning to take into consideration factors like gerrymandering.
- Coincidentally, Republicans currently occupy 17 House districts that Hillary Clinton won in last fall’s presidential election, but expecting Democrats to flip all of those seats is … unrealistic.
Fun fact! Democrats netted just one seat in each of the past two election cycles!
Okay, that’s not really fun. But it’s more fun that the two cycles preceding that.
- Democrats lost seven seats in 2011 after losing six seats in 2009.
So picking up, like, four seats would be a huuuuuuuuuuuuuge win for Virginia House Democrats next Tuesday. But maybe they can do even better than that. Why? Reasons!
- Democratic challengers are putting up strong fundraising numbers. Take, for example, Democratic challenger Karrie Delaney’s performance in the most recent fundraising period: She came in eighth in terms of cash-on-hand—an area in which GOP incumbents generally dominate, since they entered the election cycle with pre-built war chests.
Anyway, I’m awfully bullish about Democrats’ prospects in the Virginia House this fall. I’ve been evaluating every little piece of information I can get my paws on (including this marvelous visualization from the Virginia Public Access Project that estimates absentee ballot requests by county and region compared to 2013), and …
[[[drumroll]]]
My official prediction is now in the range of five to eight pickups. (You can read more about which districts and why here.)
Oh, and Ed Gillespie isn’t the only one pushing racist and terrible campaign communications this cycle.
- The mail pieces the Republican Party of Virginia has been dropping in House races are just gross.
- But you don’t have to take my word for it: See for yourself.
- And let’s not forget this piece, this piece, and this piece, which isn’t racist so much as it’s a sad attempt by the Republican to run away from his own party.
Jersey Bounce: Not only is there a gubernatorial race in New Jersey next week, but the entire state Assembly (their version of the House of Delega … I mean Representatives) and Senate are up, too.
- And that’s all I have to say about that because Democrats will win the governorship and keep their legislative majorities and why on earth did the DNC send “six-figure investment” there that could have, say, pushed a couple of Virginia House candidates across the line?
Why Georgia: There’s a special election in Georgia next Tuesday, and normally that wouldn’t be a thing, but if the Democrat wins the Republicans won’t have a veto-proof supermajority in the state Senate any more, and that would be really helpful for a Democratic governor if one gets elected next year.
Washington is Next: Several special elections are happening in Washington on Tuesday, but one of them will decide if Republicans get to keep obstructing a truly progressive agenda or if Democrats will win trifecta control of the governor’s mansion and both legislative chambers. By flipping Senate District 45, Manka Dhingra will finally give Democrats a majority in the chamber. And she’s on track to win.
But wait, there’s more! Here’s a list of the other statehouse specials happening on Tuesday
- Georgia: SD-39, HD-04, HD-26, HD-42, HD-60, HD-89, HD-117, HD-119
- Maine: HD-56
- Massachusetts: HD 1st Berkshire, HD 3rd Essex
- Michigan: HD-01, HD-109
- Mississippi: HD-38, HD-54
- Missouri: SD-08, HD-23, HD-151
- New Hampshire: HD Sullivan-1, HD Hillsborough-15
- New York: SD-26, AD-27, AD-71
- South Carolina: HD-113
- Washington: LD-07 (House & Senate), LD-31 (House & Senate), LD-37 (Senate), LD-48 (House & Senate)
On Wisconsin: Tired of all this election talk? I’ve got you! Here are some policy shenanigans from the Badger State.
- Wisconsin’s GOP-controlled legislature is still in session, and before the end of the year, they’re going to take up bills that would restrict abortion and a measure to allow people to carry concealed guns without training or a permit.
But some GOP lawmakers seem to have awfully thin skins. I mean, why else would they have blocked the progressive group One Wisconsin Now on Twitter?
And with that, I bid you Happy Election Day. See you on the flip side!