As is often the case in non-presidential election years, a ton of attention has been paid this election cycle to the top of the ballot. In 2017, that means the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, particularly the former (which has been viewed as considerably more competitive than the election in the Garden State). But there is a real story to be told downballot in Virginia, as my colleague Carolyn Fiddler reminded us earlier in the week. The Virginia House of Delegates, despite an outsized GOP majority, could well become the story on Election Night.
Few legislative chambers in the nation have as yawning a gap between how their state behaves in statewide elections and the balance of power in the chamber than the HoD, drawn by Republicans to ensure an impenetrable GOP majority. For the first three elections under the map, that mission was most certainly accomplished—the GOP majority has been hovering in the range of 2 to 1, currently resting at 66 Republicans to only 34 Democrats.
The good news for Democrats: the current field, plus movement toward the Democrats in Virginia, have rendered it practically impossible for any other outcome than a Democratic gain in seats.
The bad news for Democrats: the road to an actual legislative majority is an arduous one. For the Democrats to seize control of the House of Delegates, they’ll need to win roughly one-third of the GOP-held seats where they were able to field a challenger. That, to say the least, is a tricky mountain to climb, especially given there are only a small handful of open seats available in this cycle (Virginia doesn’t have term limits).
An analysis of the key districts at play, and in particular an analysis of the precincts that make up these competitive districts, tells us that major gains are certainly possible, and that while seizing the majority is highly unlikely, it is not completely out of the realm of possibility.
In the analysis that follows, we will look at many of the districts that are potentially in play, looking at the “critical precincts” in each district that may well give us hints at which districts are breaking to (or, alas, away from) the Democrats as the night wears on. To try to put a number on where we might expect these districts to be on Election Night, we looked at both turnout and performance in three elections: 2016 Presidential, 2015 House of Delegates (or, if unopposed, the most recent contested HoD race, where possible), and 2014 Senate (picked for it’s close margin and because GOP gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie was the Republican candidate in that race).
Let’s start the analysis, as Carolyn did earlier in the week, with the seats most likely to shift into the Democratic column, and then work our way toward the longshots that are only likely to fall in a true blue wave.
Probable Democratic Pickups (2)
HD-02 (Prince william and stafford counties)
As Carolyn noted earlier in the week, it is going to be a long night for the Democrats if this one doesn’t flip to the blue team. This is a district Hillary Clinton carried by 16 points, but unlike other GOP-held districts, it also went pretty handily to Mark Warner in 2014 (Warner won it by 7). If turnout drops as one would expect compared to a presidential turnout, there are still enough votes in the reliably Democratic precincts in Prince William County to make Democrat Jennifer Carroll-Foy a betting favorite, probably in the 8 to10-point range.
The key precinct to watch here is in Prince William County: Potomac View (PWC #705). It is a precinct that almost perfectly matched the district-wide vote totals in 2015’s race where Republican Mark Dudenhefer barely reclaimed the seat for the GOP. Also, in Stafford County, if the Democrats are even within 20 points in the large precinct of Roseville (Stafford #202), it’s a bad night for the GOP here. Hillary Clinton managed to get within single digits here, but both Gillespie and Dudenhefer romped here.
HD-42 (Fairfax county)
Republican Dave Albo has been stunningly effective at holding onto this district for close to two decades. With his retirement this year, however, Democrats have a golden opportunity to win a district carried both by Hillary Clinton (by 20 points) and Mark Warner (by a much more modest 3-point margin).
The key here is probably West Springfield (Fairfax #840). A non-presidential drop-off is also key. Clinton won this precinct by 27 points, but Warner won it by a much more modest 8-point margin, and Albo won it easily in 2015. Also, Democrat Kathy Tran needs to run up the score in Laurel Hill (Fairfax #628), a large precinct where Clinton and Warner cruised, and the only large precinct that Albo was in any danger of losing back in 2015. Turnout in 2013/2014 was only about half of what it was last year—Tran will want more raw votes to come out of that deep blue treasure trove of votes.
Tossups/Potential Democratic Pickups (5)
HD-12 (Giles, montgomery, pulaski and radford counties)
Unlike most of the targets on the agenda for the Democrats on Election Day, HD-12 is not a NoVa-centered district. It is a district along the Virginia-West Virginia border which merges ruby-red rural precincts with a dash of Dem-friendly territory around Blacksburg. Democrats have come close here in the past, with the notable exception of 2015. This year, Democrats have one of their star recruits in this district in the person of Chris Hurst.
Here, the key to a Democratic victory is not a key precinct: in fact, it is a county that has historically proven quite hostile to the blue team. Indeed, the surest way that a Democrat can win in HD-12, it would seem, is to contain the damage in Giles County. Giles is a ruby-red county that casts between one-quarter to one-third of the votes in the district. Hillary Clinton barely won the district, but Sen. Mark Warner won it rather comfortably (he beat Gillespie by an eight-point margin). The difference was Giles: Clinton lost the county by 48 points, while Warner lost the county by only 23 points. The bottom line for Hurst—in order to win, he needs to come a lot closer to mimicking Warner’s performance there.
HD-13 (Manassas park city and prince william county)
For a number of Democrats, a pickup in this NoVa district would be the most emotionally satisfying, on a number of levels. Veteran GOP Del. Bob Marshall has been a thorn in the side of progressives, governing far to the right of a district that has been trending blue for some time. In particular, he has run a particularly vile campaign this go-round versus Danica Roem, who is seeking to become the first transgender candidate elected to state legislative office in America. Marshall has proven to be a tough out for the Democrats, however, getting re-elected (and often quite comfortably) for the better part of two decades.
This time around, however, the prevailing winds might work against him. Few districts shifted more over the past several years than this one: Hillary Clinton won it by more than 14 points even though Sen. Mark Warner actually narrowly lost the district back in 2014. A key precinct to watch, and emblematic of this shift, is Yorkshire (PWC #212). This is a precinct that Marshall carried by 12 points in his 2015 victory, but Hillary Clinton won by over 26 points. The key here will not only be margin, but also turnout. Yorkshire has had a particularly steep slide in non-presidential turnout in the past several elections. If Democrats can boost the numbers here to even one-half of the 2016 turnout numbers, it seems likely those additional votes will be on their side of the ledger.
HD-31 (Fauquier and prince william counties)
Del. Scott Lingamfelter has been one of those Republican incumbents who has always won as of late, but never easily. Seeking his ninth term, Lingamfelter has won most of his contested races with 56 percent or less of the vote, including a 50-49 cliffhanger in 2013 against then rising Democratic prospect (and now state Senator) Jeremy McPike. Lingamfelter has typically run up the score in the district’s Fauquier County precincts, and may need to do so again to hold off the stiff challenge of Democrat Elizabeth Guzman.
For Guzman to win, she is going to need a big number out of Spriggs (PWC #207), a large precinct in Prince William County. When turnout is lighter there, it is a modestly blue precinct. But it became a dark blue precinct in 2016, sparked by a huge turnout boost. In 2015, it had the sixth-biggest turnout in the district. In 2016, it had the second biggest turnout. Guzman not only needs a double-digit margin here, but she probably also needs the turnout to be huge.
HD-32 (Loudon county)
This Loudon County district, held since 2009 by Republican Del. Thomas A. (Tag) Greason, is one of those districts that has seen an immense recent shift. The key for Democrat David Reid will be to sustain the gains Democrats made here last year, when a district that went to Mark Warner by just under 2 points became a district that went to Hillary Clinton by 19 points.
Integral to that shift were precincts like Eagle Ridge (Loudon #616). Eagle Ridge is a precinct that went from modestly red to legitimately blue in a two-year span. In 2014, Gillespie won it by 4 points. Greason improved on that in 2015, winning by 17 points in this precinct. It was a key component in his 53-47 win over Elizabeth Miller. But in 2016, Donald Trump lost the precinct by more than 20 points. So, Eagle Ridge could well prove to be a bellwether: if Greason loses here, he’s probably getting smooshed in the bluer parts of the district. If so, it’s hard to see how he will gain enough votes elsewhere to hold onto this seat.
HD-67 (fairfax and loudon counties)
The 67th is a bit of a confounding district. Looking at last year’s results, it seems utterly impossible for the GOP to hold on here: Donald Trump got beat here by nearly 23 points! But the same district gave Mark Warner a much more modest win in 2014 (under six points), and Republican Del. Jim LeMunyon has cruised here with relative ease since first being elected to office back in 2009. His toughest battle here came in 2013, when he still defeated Democrat Hung Nguyen by a relatively comfy 54-45 margin.
This time around, he has two problems: he has to worry if that outsized 2016 shift was temporary or real, and he has to worry about Democrat Karrie Delaney, who is easily the toughest opponent LeMunyon has ever faced. A key precinct to judge his fortunes here will be Waples Mill (Fairfax #916). Few precincts have been as “Choose Your Own Adventure” on Election Night recently as this one. Back in 2013 (LeMunyon ran unopposed in 2015), the incumbent won here with ease over the Democrat, winning the precinct by 18 points. In 2014, Warner won it, but barely (only about 1 point). In 2016, however, Hillary Clinton easily bested Donald Trump here, snagging this precinct by a 13-point margin. Only two precincts have consistently been better for Republicans than this one. If he doesn’t walk out of here with a considerable edge, he could be endangered.
Tilt/Leans Republican Retention (4)
HD-21 (Chesapeake city and virginia beach city)
There are two reasons why it is a little tougher to be optimistic about this southeastern district than the others we’ve discussed thus far. For one thing, Republican Ron Villanueva has consistently run ahead of the generic Democratic performance here. For another, this is the rare bird among the competitive districts that saw little difference between 2014 and 2016: Warner won the district by 3.3 percent, and Clinton did so by 3.5 percent.
That said, a district consistently carried (albeit narrowly) by Democrats has to be considered a target. If Democrat Kelly Convirs-Fowler is to have a shot, it’s going to come in places like Windsor Oaks (VBC #36). Windsor Oaks, like a half-dozen others in the district, is a place that Villanueva carried in 2015 even as both Warner and Clinton carried the precinct with relative ease. If Villanueva is up in these kinds of precincts by a solid margin, he’s on his way to re-election. But if Convirs-Fowler can keep those precincts close or even lead them, she has more than a puncher’s chance.
HD-40 (Fairfax and prince william counties)
Unlike most of the districts in our analysis to date, the 40th district features an incumbent who is really being challenged for the first time. Del. Tim Hugo, who was first elected in a 2002 special election, has never won with less than 57 percent of the vote. But this time around, he is contending with a legitimate and well-funded Democrat (Donte Tanner), and he is dealing with a district that seems to be shifting beneath his feet: few districts have shifted more than the 19-point shift the 40th district has seen between Warner in 2014 and Clinton last year.
So, the question for Tuesday night is this: is the present-day HD-40 the one Hillary Clinton won by 8 points last year, or is it the one that Ed Gillespie won in 2014 by 11 points? A key precinct that might answer that question is Willow Springs (Fairfax #851), which is one of those Gillespie/Clinton districts. If Tanner is tied or close in this precinct, he might be in the game districtwide.
HD-51 (Prince william county)
The 51st district has shown signs of competitiveness on the rare occasions in which it has been contested. Four years ago, incumbent GOP Del. Rich Anderson edged Democrat Reed Huddleston 54-46. However, Democrats didn’t field candidates here in 2011 or 2015. This time around, though, Anderson has a top-flight challenger in Democrat Hala Ayala.
HD-51 had a pretty strong anti-Trump trend in 2016. Back in the 2014 Senate race, Gillespie actually won the district by 7 points, which is actually the same margin by which Trump lost the district in 2016. If there’s one precinct that seems to have shifted even more substantially over the years, keep an eye on Bennett (PWC #203). Bennett is a precinct that was comfortably red in the not-so-distant past, but it is also a precinct that Trump carried by just 1.5 percent last year. Anderson and Gillespie both carried the district by 18 points. If Anderson doesn’t run up double digits here, it could be a red flag for the GOP.
HD-72 (henrico county)
The 72nd district features a GOP-held open seat, but unlike HD-02 or HD-42, it’s hard to characterize this as a race where Democrats should feel like they’re the betting favorites. The reason is the district—the tradition here is Republican, so much so that outgoing incumbent Jimmie Massie hasn’t faced a Democratic challenger since his inaugural victory in 2007. The Democrats have a solid prospect here, though, in teacher Schuyler VanValkenburg.
VanValkenburg is the most competitive Democrat to run in this district, which forms a suburban/exurban semicircle to the northwest of Richmond. And he runs in a district that might also be in the midst of a shift. The district saw a double-digit blue shift between 2014 and 2016, going from Gillespie +6 to Clinton +4. No precinct has shifted more markedly than Welborne (Henrico #418), which went from Gillespie +3 to Clinton +19. If the Democrats are to pull off an upset, this probably needs to be a precinct with a double-digit blue victory.
Longshots on the Road to a Majority (7)
HD-10 (Clarke, frederick, and loudoun counties)
The 10th district, represented since 2011 by Republican Del. Randy Minchew, feels like one of those districts that is just beyond the reach of a Democratic takeover. Minchew has won here with totals between 57-62 percent of the vote. However, there was a pronounced 2014/16 shift here, with a shift from Gillespie +8 to Clinton +4. That said, of the “Clinton 17” districts (those 17 GOP-held seats where Clinton bested Trump in 2016), this one feels like a particularly tough get.
For Democrat Wendy Gooditis to get there, she is going to need some help from Loudoun County. In particular, a precinct like Cool Spring (Loudoun #505), where Gillespie managed a 9-point win in 2014 but Clinton carried it by single digits in 2016. For Gooditis to have a shot at the upset, she needs to at least score wins in precincts like this, no matter the margin.
HD-50 (manassas city and prince william county)
Unlike the 10th district, the NoVa-based 50th district has all the hallmarks of a winnable district for the Democrats. After all, the incumbent (veteran GOP Del. Jackson Miller) notably lost a bid for PWC Clerk of the Court in April, falling to Democrat Jackie Smith by a 54-46 margin. Plus, the district had one of the stronger anti-Trump tilts last year, going from Gillespie +3 to Clinton +12. Part of the story, however, is that Democrat Lee Carter has been in a bit of a feud with the state party, which certainly dims the optimism here.
If Carter is in the game here, you’ll know by looking at a precinct like Dean (Manassas City #1). Dean is one of those precincts that Miller has historically won in a romp, but has been closely contested otherwise. Miller has never won the precinct by less than 22 points. If Carter is within single digits, or even manages to edge Miller here the way both Clinton and Obama managed to do during the presidential elections of 2016 and 2012, the Democrats might be en route to what would be a major upset.
HD-68 (richmond city, Chesterfield and henrico counties)
The 68th, centered to the west of Richmond, is one of those districts that looks like a golden prospect to people only looking at 2016 election data. After all, Hillary Clinton easily bested Donald Trump here, winning the district by a 51-41 margin. But this is a district that has been varying shades of red in almost every other statewide election this decade. Interestingly, the lone exception? Ralph Northam, who easily won the district in his lieutenant governor’s bid in 2013 (beating E.W. Jackson 59-40).
Republican Del. Manoli Loupassi has never been seriously challenged here, winning every one of his races here by double digits. For that to change this year, obviously Democrat Dawn Adams will need to replicate Hillary Clinton’s success from last year. To do that, she’ll need big performances out of precincts like Precinct 113 in Richmond. There are a handful of precincts in Richmond which have had two characteristics—big leads for Democrats, but leads that are tempered by a sharp non-presidential drop-off. To wit: while Senate turnout in 2014 was 67 percent of the Trump-Clinton turnout, it was only 52 percent in Precinct 113. Democrats need not only to run up the score here, they need a strong turnout, to boot.
HD-73 (henrico county)
The turf making up HD-73 has not been on a Democratic target, it seems, since shortly after the Earth’s crust cooled. Incumbent Del. John O’Bannon has held this seat since 2000 (fun fact—his predecessor? Eric Cantor!), and in that time has only faced a Democratic opponent one time—back in 2009. Democrat Debra Rodman will be tasked with taking on O’Bannon in a district that might be shifting a bit in the Richmond suburbs.
The district shifted markedly, from Gillespie +5 to Clinton +6. And if O’Bannon is going to be put in electoral peril, it is going to be on the backs of precincts like Pinchbeck (Henrico #412). This is a precinct carried rather comfortably by both Gillespie and Cuccinelli, but also carried rather easily by Clinton (won the precinct 51-42). It is also one of the larger precincts in the district.
HD-85 (virginia beach city)
Unlike the rest of the swing districts and longshots for 2017, this is a district that Donald Trump did manage to carry, albeit by a tiny margin (47-46). But unlike the rest, we also don’t have to go back to 2015 or 2013 to get a feel for this district. That’s because the two major-party candidates in this ancestrally red seat faced off in January. The results were close enough to declare this seat a definite sleeper race. Newly-minted incumbent Del. Rocky Holcomb is being challenged again by Democrat Cheryl Turpin, who held Holcomb to a 53-47 win in January.
The key for Turpin might be to goose turnout in the small handful of reliably blue precincts in the district, precincts like Village (VBC #76). In January, Turpin actually got margins decidedly better than Hillary Clinton here, as well as in the other three dark blue precincts in HD-85. The problem? Turnout here ran well behind the district average (which was not hot to begin with, given a special election just after the holiday season). If she can goose turnout in those blue pockets of the district, that may help her make up the gap.
HD-94 (newport news city)
The last time there was a gubernatorial election in Virginia, the Democrats came tantalizingly close to seizing this GOP-held seat, holding incumbent Del. David Yancey to a 51-49 win. This time around, the Democrats are counting on Shelly Simonds, the 2015 nominee who jumped into the race when the original Democratic standard-bearer dropped out.
The 2013 result, plus the modest Clinton win in the district (she led here 49-44), give the Democrats at least a modest chance here. To win, Simonds needs a better performance out of a large precinct like Nelson (NNC #210). This was a district that no recent Democrat has won save for Ralph Northam, but both Clinton and Warner managed to keep close to even. Simonds lost here 60-40. If she can keep her deficit here down to a modest margin of under 8 points, that could be as much as a 200-vote pickup for the Democrat.
HD-100 (norfolk city, accomack and northampton counties)
This Eastern shore district looks like a real tossup on paper. After all, the 100th is a district represented by Democrats as recently as 2014, when longtime Democratic Del. Lynwood Lewis moved to the state Senate (replacing, as it happens, Ralph Northam). It is a relatively rare GOP-held district in that Democrats carried the district in all four of the “major statewide” races of recent vintage (Clinton, Warner, McAuliffe, and Obama).
All that said, Republican Del. Rob Bloxom has won with ease in his two victories here, including a 58-42 win in 2015 over this year’s Democratic nominee, Willie Randall. For Randall to reverse that result, he is going to need a huge performance out of Norfolk City. When Warner and Clinton narrowly carried the 100th, Norfolk City made up more than 30 percent of the district’s turnout. But in 2015, when Randall got beat here by 16 points, Norfolk City only accounted for 23 percent of the district turnout. That won’t be enough to offset a near-certain Bloxom advantage in Accomack County, where there is actually a precinct that carries the family name.
Here is the critical bottom line: there are eighteen districts in this analysis. While many have narrow windows of success for Democrats, not one of them is a “no hope” race. And, if there really is a Democratic wave materializing downballot (as there have been for Democrats in legislative special elections all year), the unthinkable could happen—the Democrats could reverse a decade of adversity in the House of Delegates. If nothing else, the sheer volume of competitive races will make for an immensely interesting night.
