This is the sort of retirement that makes Republicans queasy and Democrats salivate: GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo, who has represented southern New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District for more than two decades, will reportedly retire at the end of this term. Had LoBiondo, one of the more pragmatic members of the Republican caucus, opted to run once more, Democrats would have been hard-pressed to unseat him: He’s never won re-election by less than double digits and has almost always prevailed by 20 points or more.
But with LoBiondo gone, everything will change. The 2nd District voted for Donald Trump by a 51-46 margin, but four years earlier, it went for Barack Obama by an even wider 54-45 spread. Now that it’s open, that swinginess makes this seat a prime target for Democrats. And one name we’re sure to hear about is state Sen. Jeff Van Drew, who has been the focus of recruiters’ ardor every cycle since 2006. He’s never gone for it, but with incumbency no longer an obstacle, a congressional bid will look a lot more appealing now. Whatever Van Drew decides, though, this will be a top-tier race next year.
And there are almost assuredly more retirements to come. Indeed, an unnamed “Republican campaign official” told Politico on Tuesday not to be “surprised” if “several” more House GOP members announce their departures this week; the rest may be waiting until after Election Day. And food for thought: The rate of Republican departures is already higher than it was back in 2006. That year, Democrats netted 30 seats. They need 24 to retake the House in 2018.