Leading Off
● HI-Gov: On Friday, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa announced that she would challenge Hawaii Gov. David Ige in next year's Democratic primary rather than seek re-election to the House. Hanabusa represents half the state in Congress, and she's run statewide once before, losing the 2014 Senate primary to appointed incumbent Brian Schatz by a slim 49.3-48.6 margin, a difference of just 1,635 votes.
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Ige himself won the governorship that same year after defeating incumbent Neil Abercrombie in the Democratic primary, though Ige's massive 67-31 romp was as different as possible from the Senate squeaker. As Daily Kos Elections community member Skaje explained in an excellent piece just after Ige's win, Abercrombie had managed to offend just about every important major Democratic constituency in the state. Ige entered the race with little name recognition or support, but he benefited from just not being Neil Abercrombie. As Sjake summed it up, "Ige didn't need to offer specific alternatives to Abercrombie's decisions. All he had to say was 'I won't do that!'"
However, when folks rally around you because of who you aren't rather than who you are, it's easy for that support to soon disappear. While they were happy to dispatch Abercrombie, Ige's 2014 allies didn't have much loyalty to the new governor once he took office, and they may be more interested in working with Hanabusa, a protégé of the legendary late Sen. Daniel Inouye and a longtime fixture in state politics. It doesn't help that Ige's fundraising has been pretty weak so far: At the end of June, he had just $250,000 in the bank.
And while Ige doesn't seem to have turned off as many people as his predecessor did, he's made some missteps during his tenure. Notably, Ige fell far short of his pledge to provide air conditioning to 1,000 school classrooms by early 2016. But as Honolulu Civil Beat's Nathan Eagle wrote a few months ago, Ige's major problem may just be that he "has not produced many tangible results to please voters." Instead, says Eagle, Ige has focused on "important objectives that don't make for easy sound bites or snappy headlines, such as eliminating unfunded liabilities and updating the tax system."
Hanabusa did not directly attack Ige as she kicked off her bid, but she gave a preview of her strategy in an interview with a local ABC affiliate. Hanabusa told the station that her campaign will "offer a choice to the voters of someone who is a fighter, leader and able to tackle difficult problems," adding that voters want a governor who will "stand up for the state." Not exactly red meat, but Hanabusa seems to be ready to argue that she, unlike Ige, has what it takes to solve the tough problems that plague the state.
But while Hanabusa is a major force in Hawaii politics, we don't yet know if she'll have a clear shot at Ige in the primary. The most likely third wheel appears to be Kaua'i Mayor Bernard Carvalho, who said last month that he would be "seeking a higher office," though he did not specify which one. Another possible gubernatorial contender has, however, set his sights lower: Sen. Josh Green had expressed interest in running for governor at the beginning of the year, but on the same day as Hanabusa made her announcement, Green declared for the lieutenant governorship instead.
Hawaii is one of the most Democratic states in the nation, and whatever happens in the primary, Team Blue's nominee will be heavily favored next year. Still, Republican Linda Lingle did win the governorship in 2002 and 2006, so GOP chances can't be discounted entirely. Their bench, however, is extremely limited: Republicans hold just five out of 51 seats in the state House and not a single seat in the entire state Senate. One GOP legislator, though, is thinking about the race: State House Minority Leader Andria Tupola recently set up a campaign fundraising account and says she'll spend "the next several weeks gathering input from people [and] mobilizing my campaign."
Senate
● AL-Sen: The Senate Conservatives Fund, a group that mostly just tries to make life as difficult as possible for Republican leadership, has thrown its backing to former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore in his runoff against Sen. Luther Strange. In the first round of the GOP primary, SCF had endorsed Rep. Mo Brooks, who finished a dismal third. Amusingly, SCF explained its decision to go with Brooks over Moore by saying that while Moore was "a good man and a strong conservative," the organization simply did not "have confidence that he can win the runoff."
What's changed since then? Who knows what motivates the likes of SCF, but every poll of the runoff (including those from Strange allies) has shown Moore ahead. And Steve Bannon in particular has reportedly been pushing the far-right to rally around Moore, mostly as a means of screwing Mitch McConnell, who's been backing Strange to the hilt. Meanwhile, Strange seems to have few buddies outside of McConnellworld these days: Trump's own press secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, has made absurd excuses to avoid saying whether Trump still supports Strange, even though he endorsed him just before the primary.
● AZ-Sen: Rep. Trent Franks' name unexpectedly came up as a potential GOP primary challenger to Sen. Jeff Flake when it was reported that Franks had met backstage with Donald Trump just before Trump's berserk rally in Phoenix late last month. Franks now confirms that the meeting did in fact take place, and he even said that the Flake race was discussed. However, Franks says he's not interested, saying "God himself would have to tell me to do it"—and it doesn't sound like the congressman has gotten any orders from up on high.
Franks did say that he might yet seek a promotion to the Senate at some point in the future, but we might not believe it even if we do see it. Back in 2011, when the seat Flake eventually won first came open, Franks' own consultant told reporter Dave Catanese that Franks would run. But in a stunning turn of events, Franks reversed course at the last possible second and sought re-election instead. Flake was already running at the time, so given that Franks didn't want to face him when he wasn't an incumbent, it's little surprise that he's still not interested now that Flake is a senator.
● WV-Sen: A new poll from Research America on behalf of MetroNews finds Sen. Joe Manchin, one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for re-election next year, in remarkably healthy shape. The survey, which is the first public poll of West Virginia all year, finds Manchin leading Rep. Evan Jenkins by a comfortable 50-40 margin and beating state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey by an even wider 52-38 margin.
Manchin also sports a solid 51-34 job approval rating, but it's here where you start to wonder if these numbers are just too rosy. Donald Trump's approval score is just 48-39, which would be a stunning 33-point collapse given that he carried the Mountain State 68-26 last fall: Nationally, Trump's job approval is only about 15 net points lower than his, uh, minus-2 point margin of "victory."
The only other poll of this race was conducted by Harper Polling, a Republican firm, which found similar numbers in the Jenkins matchup, with Manchin ahead 51-39, but a much wider margin for Morrisey, whom the senator led 57-35. However, that survey was conducted 10 months ago, just after Trump's election, so the data is very stale—and we'll need a lot more before we can truly assess where Manchin stands.
P.S. The firm that had long conducted polls for MetroNews, R.L. Repass, was acquired by Research America late last year. Rex Repass, who founded and ran R.L. Repass, continues to run the firm and was responsible for this poll.
Gubernatorial
● GA-Gov: Last month, former President Jimmy Carter appeared to endorse ex-House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams in next year's Democratic primary, declaring that "she's going to be—possibly, and hopefully for me—our next governor of Georgia." Soon thereafter, however, Carter insisted that he wasn't taking sides, and he reinforced that notion over the weekend when he hosted state Rep. Stacey Evans, Abrams' primary foe, at his Plains home. A spokesperson said once again that Carter wasn't backing either Democrat.
On Tuesday, Evans also announced that she was resigning from the state House to focus on her campaign. Abrams recently resigned as well for the same reason.
● IL-Gov: We don't typically cover gubernatorial candidates' picks for lieutenant governor simply because they so rarely have an electoral impact—unless, that is, they cause problems for the top of the ticket. And that's what we have here: Over the weekend, Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider withdrew his endorsement of state Sen. Daniel Biss' campaign for governor because of Biss' running mate's views on Israel. Specifically, Schneider took exception to Chicago Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa's membership in the Democratic Socialists of America, which supports the so-called "Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions" movement against Israel, as well as Ramirez-Rosa's own remarks last year saying that divestment from Israel is "a conversation [that] needs to be had."
Ramirez-Rosa was first elected to the city council in 2015 at the age of just 26, making him the council's first-ever gay Latino member, and he also served as a Bernie Sanders delegate to the Democratic convention last year. Just last week, Biss announced that Ramirez-Rosa would join his team, which is competing against billionaire venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker, businessman Chris Kennedy, and a handful of other candidates for the right to take on Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner next year.
Schneider says he spoke with both Ramirez-Rosa and Biss about his decision, but the Biss campaign has yet to comment. Ironically, last cycle, as Schneider was waging a comeback bid for the House seat he'd been ousted from in 2014, he lost the endorsements of some prominent Illinois Democrats over his opposition to the Iran nuclear deal. Schneider wound up in fairly close race in his own primary but went on to beat GOP Rep. Bob Dold!, the man who had unseated him two years earlier.
● ME-Gov: Democrat John Baldacci served as governor of Maine from 2003 to 2011, and now he's looking at a comeback bid, saying on Thursday that he would consider running again if he doesn't see enough "moderation" among the current field of candidates. Baldacci also flirted with a run in 2013, but it never went anywhere.
Regardless of what he thinks of the current crop of contenders, though, Baldacci doesn't have the hallmarks of a particularly strong candidate. Baldacci left office in 2011 dreadfully unpopular: A Critical Insights poll taken shortly before the end of his second term a dreadful 35-55 approval rating in 2010. Time might have improved matters a bit, as a 2013 PPP survey found him with a 40-46 favorability score, but we have no more recent data to know whether voters are now interested in having their termed-out former governor back.
Several other Democrats are already running, with Attorney General Janet Mills likely starting with the most name recognition, and the primary might soon get more crowded. The Bangor Daily News reports that state Sen. Mark Dion, who represents part of Portland, has said he's considering, which is the first we've ever heard from him.
Lee Auto Malls Chairman Adam Lee has also talked about running for a while, and while he hasn't ruled anything out, he did offer a bit of an odd comment recently. Lee predicted that, if others don't run, the party would unify around Mills, saying, "I'll be right there with them getting behind a candidate that probably is the most qualified" but "probably cannot win" a general election, concluding, "So, it's kind of grim." Lee doesn't seem to have elaborated, though, on why he's so pessimistic about Mills' chances.
● MN-Gov: Over the weekend, Ramsey County Commissioner Blake Huffman dropped out of the race for the GOP nomination. Don't worry—there are plenty of other Republicans running.
● NY-Gov: Longtime state Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb is the latest Republican to express interest in challenging Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo next year. Kolb, who also flirted with bids for Congress in 2010 and 2012, tells auburnpub.com that he's been encouraged by unnamed GOP leaders and members of the business community.
However, Kolb acknowledged that he'd need to determine if he could "raise enough funds to support a credible campaign," which would be a tough task in this very expensive state. Kolb conceded that Cuomo's $25.6 million war-chest would be "tough to compete against," though he added that he believed the governor is vulnerable (but what else is he gonna say?). Several other Republicans have talked about running here, though no one notable has taken the plunge.
● OH-Gov: Toledo-area Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who is one of just four Democrats to represent the state of Ohio in the House (thank you, gerrymandering), endorsed former Rep. Betty Sutton's campaign for governor over the weekend. Kaptur served alongside Sutton in Congress for three terms, until Sutton lost her bid for re-election in 2012 to GOP Rep. Jim Renacci in an incumbent-vs.-incumbent battle fomented by the GOP's redistricting plan.
Sutton faces three other notable Democrats in the primary for Ohio's governorship, which will be open next year: former State Rep. Connie Pillich, state Sen. Joe Schiavoni, and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. However, the field could yet grow. Richard Cordray, who heads up the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is still refusing to answer questions about whether he might join the race, despite some reports earlier this summer saying he was gearing up to run.
However, as a federal employee, Cordray is largely barred from engaging in political activity, so he can't really comment unless he quits his position, which runs through July. But time is just about up for Cordray: As the Los Angeles Times notes, the first Democratic debate is on Sept. 12. Cordray would also have a lot of work to do to assuage progressives that he did the right thing by leaving the CFPB early and very likely giving Trump an opportunity to replace him with someone bent on tearing down the agency. There's perhaps a small chance that Cordray's own deputy could succeed him, but that's not something he'd want to pin his hopes on. Whatever he decides, we'll find out soon enough.
● SC-Gov: State Rep. James Smith sounds likely to seek the Democratic nod next year, but if he does, he might have some primary competition. The Post and Courier reports that state Sen. John Scott says he will decide by the end of September and that Smith's own decision won't impact his own. Both legislators represent seats in the Columbia area and likely start with little statewide name recognition. However, Scott could have the edge if race plays a role in the primary. Scott, like most Democratic primary voters, is African-American, while Smith is white. State Rep. Justin Bamberg, who is black, is also considering getting in, but he says he will defer to Smith.
● VA-Gov: Democrat Ralph Northam just launched a pair of new TV ads, and for the first time, he's going ever-so-slightly negative on Republican Ed Gillespie, but neither spot is very good. In the first, speaking directly to camera, Northam declares that he supports "bipartisan tax reform" but says Gillespie "disagrees" and has a plan that's "just another tax cut for the wealthy." Harsh stuff!
While that ad might be bland, the second spot is simply misbegotten. Northam again speaks to the camera, but this time, he responds directly to Gillespie's first negative ad, declaring, "I sponsored this ad because Ed Gillespie's attack ad about sanctuary cities is not true. If I'm governor and you commit a violent crime, it doesn't matter where you're from—you're going to prison."
The problem here is that Northam pretty much violates rule number one for campaign ads, which is to never repeat your opponents' attacks against you. The second part of Northam's message is just fine—he should just cut the first part, or say something that won't remind voters of Gillespie's ad, like, "I want to tell you the truth." Better yet, have a credible third-party validator, who can vouch for Northam's moral compass, say it for him.
House
● HI-01: Democratic Rep. Colleen Hanabusa's decision to run for governor means that, for the third straight cycle, we have an open seat race in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District. Hillary Clinton carried the district, which includes most of Honolulu, by a wide 63-31 margin.
The latest chapter of this story picks up in 2014, when Hanabusa left to unsuccessfully run for the Senate and Mark Takai won the crowded primary to succeed her 44-28. That November, however, Takai only held off ex-Rep. Charles Djou, a Republican who briefly held this seat after a strange 2010 special election win, by a small 52-48 spread. In May of 2016, Takai announced that he would not seek a second term because of pancreatic cancer, and he died two months later. Hanabusa decided to stage a comeback, and every notable Democrat deferred to her; she won easily last fall. But with Hanabusa leaving again, there's no clear frontrunner.
Given its blue lean, Democrats are likely to hold this seat, but it's not quite a given. Back in 2010, Djou won the special election with just 40 percent of the vote thanks to an unusual set of procedures that won't obtain next year. In that race, all the candidates ran on one ballot, and it took just a plurality to win. Hanabusa and ex-Rep. Ed Case took a combined 59 percent of the vote, but because they split the Democratic vote, Djou's 40 percent was enough to send him to Congress. A few months later, Hanabusa unseated Djou 53-47, and she held him off 55-45 in 2012. But Djou did come surprisingly close to beating Takai during the 2014 GOP wave, and he lost a non-partisan race for mayor of Honolulu last year to Democratic incumbent Kirk Caldwell just 52-48. It's unclear if Djou is interested in yet another bid, but given his pair of close defeats, Democrats should keep an eye out.
● KS-02: We may have another GOP candidate for this open Topeka-area seat soon. Antonio Soave, who stepped down as Gov. Sam Brownback's commerce secretary in June after two years on the job, emailed supporters, "Our plan is to make an announcement regarding our bid for the U.S. House of Representatives on or about September 14th." You can tell he's serious because he referred to himself as "our," something only done by political candidates, monarchs, the Borg, and political newsletters written by multiple authors.
Soave, who played semi-professional soccer in Italy in the 1980s and later wrote a romance novel titled, "The Consequence: A Soccer Romance," lives just outside this seat in the 3rd District, but he told the Kansas City Star that he's interested in the 2nd. Several other Republicans are campaigning in the primary, while Democrats hope that ex-state House Minority Leader Paul Davis will give Team Blue an opening in this 56-37 Trump seat.
● MA-03: On Tuesday, Democrat Ellen Murphy Meehan announced that she would not run for this open Merrimack Valley seat. Murphy Meehan, who works as a consultant for smaller urban hospitals, is the ex-wife of Marty Meehan, who represented this seat until 2007. Meehan said he would back his former spouse if she ran, but the Boston Globe's Frank Phillips writes that her decision to stay out of the primary clears the way for other people close to the former congressman and current president of the University of Massachusetts system to get in. And sure enough, Phillips reports that business consultant Lori Trahan, who served as chief of staff to Meehan, is "expected to take a serious look" at running here.
No notable Democrats have announced that they're running to succeed retiring Rep. Niki Tsongas yet, but another big name is laying the groundwork. Daniel Koh resigned as chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh last month and recently opened up a fundraising committee, though his website says he's only "exploring." Walsh had previously pledged to endorse Koh, and he quickly made good on that promise on Tuesday, so it's very likely Koh's going to run. Boston is located outside the 3rd District, but Koh is from the area, and he should have the connections to raise a credible amount of money.
Meanwhile, we also have word of another potential Democratic candidate. The Lowell Sun reports that state Rep. Colleen Garry is considering, though she hasn't said anything publicly. It's not clear how serious Garry is, though the Sun says she's less likely to run than state Sen. Barbara L'Italien, who is one of several Democrats who has expressed interest. Clinton won this seat, which includes Lawrence and Lowell, 58-35, though a few local Republicans are considering running here.
● MT-AL: Democratic state Rep. Tom Woods told the Bozeman Daily Chronicle on Friday that he's considering a bid against freshman Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte, but he doesn't sound ready for a tough campaign. Woods says he's been advised that he'll need to raise about $3 million to run, which he's not happy about. Woods complained that candidates are judged "not on quality of character or passing legislation, it's based on how much money you have—it's absurd." Woods says he'll decide over the next month.
● NJ-02: Here we go again. Political columnist and radio host Harry Hurley writes in ShoreNewsToday that "many political observers believe" that after New Jersey's state elections in November, Democratic state Sen. Jeff Van Drew "will run next year in the Congressional midterm elections." Van Drew has considered challenging longtime GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo every single cycle since 2006 and never gone for it. LoBiondo has consistently won with ease in this coastal South Jersey seat, and Van Drew may be one of the few Democrats capable of giving him a real fight, but we are deep, deep, deep into Lucy and the football territory here. This seat also swung from 54-45 Obama to 51-45 Trump, potentially making it less appetizing than it once was.
● OH-16: On Tuesday, businessman and former football player Anthony Gonzalez announced that he was joining the GOP primary for this open seat. Gonzalez had a well-regarded football career at Ohio State, and he was named an Academic All-American. After Gonzalez played for the Indianapolis Colts, he went on to serve as chief operating officer for an education technology company in San Francisco before recently moving back to Ohio. Gonzalez will face state Reps. Christina Hagan and Tom Patton in the primary to succeed gubernatorial candidate Jim Renacci. This seat, which includes part of the Akron, Canton, and Cleveland areas, went from 53-45 Romney to 56-39 Trump.
● OK-01: GOP Rep. Jim Bridenstine has insisted that his current term will be his last, but he may be gone a bit sooner than 2019. On Friday, Donald Trump announced that he would nominate Bridenstine, who once served as director of the Tulsa Air & Space Museum, to lead NASA. If Bridenstine is confirmed by the Senate, there will be a special election for his Tulsa seat, which backed Trump 61-33, but it's not clear when. The Tulsa World's Randy Krehbiel writes that, if Bridenstine were to resign by mid-October, there could still be time for a special this year, but if he remains in Congress past that point, his seat would likely remain vacant until November of 2018.
No matter what, though, the parties will pick their nominees through primaries, and if no one takes a majority of the vote, there will be a primary runoff. The GOP nominee should be the heavy favorite to win in a conservative seat Team Red has held since the 1980s, though special elections have certainly been erratic in the Trump era.
Five Republicans had already entered the race to succeed Bridenstine: ex-Army intelligence officer Andy Coleman; state Sen. Nathan Dahm; ex-Tulsa County District Attorney Tim Harris; businessman Kevin Hern; and pastor Danny Stockstill. Hern, who owns and operates 10 local McDonald's restaurants, loaned his campaign $450,000 last quarter, giving him a huge early financial edge. At the end of June, Hern had $539,000 in the bank; Harris was a distant second with $63,000 on-hand.
● PA-10: On Friday, Donald Trump nominated GOP Rep. Tom Marino to serve as director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy. If the Senate confirms Marino to serve as "drug czar," there will be a special election for this conservative seat in rural northeastern Pennsylvania. Under state law, there would be no primaries: Instead, local party delegates would pick their nominees. This seat went for Trump 66-30 last year, and even unpopular GOP Gov. Tom Corbett won the seat 58-42 as he was losing re-election 55-45 in 2014, so the Republican candidate would be the heavy favorite.
A few months ago, there were reports that Marino had been chosen as drug czar, and while he (temporarily) withdrew his name from consideration over what he said was "a critical illness in my family," that brief moment gave us a sense of the potential GOP field to replace him.
In April, Bradford County Commissioner Doug McLinko and state Rep. Fred Keller both said they would run for an open seat. David Weber, Marino's deputy chief of staff and reportedly a pal of Eric Trump, and former Pennsylvania Farm Bureau President Keith Eckel both saw their names surface but refused to say anything at the time because Marino wasn't officially gone yet. Lycoming County Commissioner Tony Mussare and state Rep. Jeff Wheeland, and state Sen. Gene Yaw was mentioned, while state Sen. Mario Scavello said he'd consider if Yaw didn't run. None of these Republicans have said anything publicly since Marino was officially nominated on Friday.
Team Blue will have a very challenging time winning here, but one notable politician has made noises about a comeback bid. In late May, ex-Rep. Chris Carney said the DCCC was trying to convince him to run, and that he was thinking about it. Carney won the last version of this seat in 2006 against a scandal-tarred Republican incumbent and held it in 2008, but lost to Marino in the 2010 GOP wave. The Republican legislature soon redrew the 10th to make it even redder, and while Carney has talked about running for the House or Senate several times over the last few years, he's never gone through with it.
● PA-11: This week, businessman Dan Meuser, who served as revenue secretary under ex-Gov. Tom Corbett, announced that he would seek the GOP nod for this open Wyoming Valley seat. Meuser is the first Republican to enter the race to succeed Senate candidate Lou Barletta, though others have expressed interest, and state Rep. Stephen Bloom set up a fundraising committee a few weeks ago. This rural seat went from 54-45 Romney to 60-36 Trump, though a few noteworthy Democrats are considering running here.
● PA-15: There's an old saying in politics: "Never write if you can speak; never speak if you can nod; never nod if you can wink." GOP state Rep. Justin Simmons probably wishes he'd at least followed that first bit. Simmons has been mulling a primary challenge to Rep. Charlie Dent in this Lehigh Valley seat, arguing last week that "[o]n every major issue, from Obamacare repeal, [to] tax reform, [to] spending, Dent sides with the Democrats and gloats at sticking it to Republicans and the president."
Dent proceeded to go nuclear, releasing friendly private messages Simmons sent him last year, including a request from February asking, "Charlie is there any chance you can help me out by hosting or sponsoring my March event with my contested primary," and an August text asking, "Do you think there's any chance the party can replace Trump on the top of the ticket?"
Simmons did not question the messages' authenticity. Instead, he argued that he's soured on Dent because he "asked for his endorsement before President Trump became our nominee and before Charlie went off the rails against President Trump." Simmons also insists that his question about replacing Trump came after the infamous Access Hollywood tape came out in October. However, as The Morning Call's Steve Esack points out, the message was sent over a month ago before the tape was released, so the explanation doesn't make sense. In any case, Dent clearly is not messing around when it comes to this potential foe. Also, don't send friendly texts, emails, letters, tweets, or Facebook messages to people you may run against later.
● SD-AL: For months, the GOP primary for this open seat has been a duel between Secretary of State Shantel Krebs and ex-state Public Utilities Commission member Dusty Johnson, who has the support of Gov. Dennis Daugaard. However, state Sen. Neal Tapio, who first won office last year, tells the Public Opinion that he's preparing to join in, and that he'd self-fund $300,000. Tapio pitched himself as an "an outsider candidate" whom establishment donors probably wouldn't like, as well as "President Trump's staunchest supporter." No notable Democrats have entered the race for this seat, which spans the entire state and backed Trump 62-32.
● TX-23: On Friday, ex-Rep. Pete Gallego announced that he would not enter the Democratic primary against GOP Rep. Will Hurd in this swing seat. Gallego won this seat, which stretches from the outskirts of El Paso east to San Antonio, in 2012 but lost to Hurd 50-48 in the 2014 GOP wave. Gallego sought a rematch last year but lost 48-47 as Clinton was winning the district 50-46. Gallego filed with the FEC in early July to raise money for a third campaign against Hurd but insisted he was still considering; it turns out he meant it. (As we like to remind readers, not every politician who files with the FEC ends up jumping in.)
Democrats had hoped that court-ordered redistricting would make this seat bluer, but a federal court recently ruled that this district could stay intact. Hurd is a very strong fundraiser who is quite good at generating favorable media coverage, but he will still be a top target next year. Former federal prosecutor Jay Hulings is running, and he's close to two influential Texas Democrats, Rep. Joaquin Castro and his twin brother Julian, a former San Antonio mayor and housing secretary under Obama. Former Air Force intelligence officer Gina Ortiz Jones is also in, and a few other Democrats are considering.
● WV-01: This northern West Virginia seat was in Democratic hands for decades until Republican David McKinley pulled off a close win during the 2010 GOP landslide, but it's looked very secure for Republicans since then. In 2014, Democratic state Auditor Glen Gainer tried to wrest this seat back into the blue column, but the incumbent pulled off a decisive 64-36 win. It doesn't help that this area has only gotten redder and redder up and down the ballot, with Trump winning here 68-26. However, one interesting Democrat is considering getting in: Ralph Baxter, the former head of national law firm Orrick, filed with the FEC last week, though he tells MetroNews that he's still considering.
Baxter considered running for the Senate in 2013, though he took a pass. As we noted then, Baxter's family hails from West Virginia and he grew up in Wheeling. He received local acclaim for moving Orrick's back-office operations there over a decade ago, but he was born in San Francisco and lived there at least until 2013. The GOP absolutely loves to pummel Democrats with even the flimsiest connection to the City by the Bay (remember this offering from the Georgia 6th special a few months ago?) and they'll likely return to that playbook if Baxter gets in.
Baxter may have the resources to fight back, however. Orrick is a prominent law firm, and as its one-time chief, Baxter should have the connections to raise a credible amount of cash, or perhaps is even rich enough to self-fund. Still, this is an incredibly tough seat, and Team Blue will need a lot of luck to put it back in play next year.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now?: Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, who just resigned from office last week after a 15-year reign of terror, is now joining a pro-Trump super PAC called America First Action. It's hard to see how a disgraced ex-lawman mired in lawsuits and investigations over his abusive if not murderous treatment of prisoners would offer much value to a PAC, but in Trumpworld, these are all wonderful qualifications.
