Leading Off
● GA Redistricting, GA State House: Late on Friday and without warning, Georgia's Republican-dominated state House rammed through a bill that would re-gerrymander their districts to protect their lopsided majority. Donald Trump won Georgia by just 50-45, but Republicans captured nearly two-thirds of the state House seats in 2016 thanks to their ultra-partisan gerrymander. Apparently even that 118-to-62 majority isn't safe enough for Republicans. Redistricting normally only takes place immediately after the census, and redrawing the lines in the middle of the decade simply because they were at risk of losing seats is nothing short of an attempt to nullify elections.
Campaign Action
If the similarly GOP-dominated state Senate and Republican Gov. Nathan Deal agree to these changes, Georgia would redraw the lines for eight Republican-held seats and one Democratic district. These changes would reduce the proportion of voters of color in certain districts where these Democratic-leaning voter demographics had threatened to oust Republican incumbents. This new map could even lead to Republicans regaining a veto-proof majority, preventing Democrats from blocking gerrymanders in the 2020s even if Team Blue wins the critical 2018 election to succeed term-limited Gov. Deal.
What's more, seven of the nine districts Republicans are trying to fiddle with are in the northern Atlanta suburbs, and two of them are located entirely within the 6th Congressional District, as shown at the top of this post. That's where the upcoming special election to replace Trump's new health secretary, Tom Price, is about to take place. While this effort doesn't directly affect the state's congressional lines, if Republicans are futzing with legislative district borders in this part of the state, it's a sign they're worried about the race for the U.S. House too. Stephen Wolf has more here.
Georgia Republicans are no strangers to just this sort of attack on democracy. After they won their first unified control over state government since Reconstruction in 2004, the party swiftly passed a mid-decade gerrymander of the congressional map that almost led to them gaining seats in 2006 even as Democrats picked up scores of seats in other states in that year's anti-GOP wave election. Republicans similarly replaced the court-drawn state Senate map with their own gerrymander to protect their newfound majority in that same election.
If these changes become law, expect to see Democrats and civil rights groups launch a barrage of lawsuits challenging these plans as illegal racial or partisan gerrymanders in violations of the Voting Rights Act or the Constitution's Equal Protections Clause. Given the recent string of court victories against racial gerrymandering and the possibility that the Supreme Court could soon impose limits on partisan gerrymandering, Georgia could soon find itself embroiled in one of the country's biggest redistricting fights.
Senate
● FL-Sen: Sen. Bill Nelson is something of an endangered species in Florida as the last remaining Democrat to hold statewide office, but a new University of North Florida survey indicates he isn't quite on the brink of extinction yet in 2018. The pollster finds the senator winning a fourth term by a 44-38 margin over Republican Gov. Rick Scott, who faces term-limits next year and is considering a Senate bid. Nelson sports a decent 42 percent approval rating with only 28 percent disapproving, while voters only narrowly approve of Scott's job performance as governor by a 46-40 spread.
Scott is incredibly wealthy and could self-fund tens of millions in this expensive state, just like he did in his two gubernatorial elections. However, the governor's strong support for Donald Trump could come back to haunt him if Trump remains unpopular on Election Day. It's still very early in the cycle, but few other major Republicans have made much noise about challenging Nelson. If Scott does pull the trigger, Florida could be in for yet another heavily contested and costly Senate race.
● ND-Sen: Rep. Kevin Cramer is now engaged in a competition with himself to see just how much of a colossal asshole he can be. Speaking last week of his women colleagues who wore white to Donald Trump's congressional address to honor the suffrage movement, Cramer bleated it was a sign of mental instability:
"But by the way, did you notice how poorly several of them were dressed as well? It is a syndrome. There is no question, there is a disease associated with the notion that a bunch of women would wear bad-looking white pantsuits in solidarity with Hillary Clinton to celebrate her loss. You cannot get that weird."
His attempts to explain away his remarks have not gone well, and his latest effort is just embarrassing:
"These are not victims of some, you know, egregious action by their male-dominant counterparts. I referenced, you know, the bad-looking pantsuits, if you will. That's not a literal statement. I wouldn't know a good-looking pantsuit from a bad-looking pantsuit."
So I insulted the way women were dressed, but I didn't mean it literally! Man, is that perfectly Trumpian or what? It all makes perfect sense, though: Cramer has claimed he's Trump's top choice to challenge Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp next year. At the rate he's going, he might just be Heitkamp's top choice, too.
Gubernatorial
● AL-Gov: In response to a Facebook page trying to recruit him, Troy University Chancellor Jack Hawkins Jr. only says he's "humbled and flattered" in seeking the governorship next year, but for now, he's only focused on his school. That response, of course, is far from a no. There's no word which party Hawkins would run under, though in 2009, he considered seeking the GOP nod. Hawkins has been chancellor of Troy University, a public school located about an hour southeast of Montgomery, since 1989.
● CO-Gov: Ex-Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar has been mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate to succeed termed-out Gov. John Hickenlooper for a while, but the former secretary of the interior doesn't seem to be in a hurry to decide. Salazar publicly acknowledged his interest for the first time a few days ago, and he tells the Denver Post he'll likely make up his mind "[p]robably by the end of the summer." Salazar sounds genuinely unsure what he'll do, since he went into his backup plan if he sits the race out: writing a book "that would tell the history of the Southwest and the history of the U.S.-Mexico border in a way that could help raise the consciousness of Americans."
Two weeks ago, an "unnamed "Democratic close to" Rep. Ed Perlmutter told the Colorado Statesman that the congressman would likely announce if he'd run by the end of February, but if Perlmutter has made a decision, he's kept it to himself. Around the same time, The Gazette reported that, according to people in Perlmutter's inner circle, the congressman's decision will at least be partially dependent on what ex-Sen. Ken Salazar does: If that's true, it looks like Perlmutter will be waiting a few months.
A number of other Democrats are also eyeing this seat, and Salazar could scare many of them out if he runs. However, Salazar is unlikely to have a clear primary if he does go for it. Salazar is no one's definition of a political outsider: In addition to his stints in the Senate and the Obama cabinet, Salazar also served as head of Hillary Clinton's transition team in August, and he also founded the Denver division of the prominent international law firm WilmerHale. A strong primary challenger could draw blood by portraying him as a part of an unacceptable status quo. Right now, ex-state Sen. Mike Johnston and businessman Noel Ginsburg are in, while some other Democrats are publicly considering.
On the other side, the GOP picked up a new candidate, though he doesn't look especially formidable. Lew Gaiter, a county commissioner in Fort Collins' Larimer County, announced he was in over the weekend. Gaiter is friends with 2016 Senate nominee Darryl Glenn, who attended his kickoff, but he doesn't seem to have the same far-right fire-in-the-belly that propelled the little-known Glenn to the GOP nod last year. Gaiter described himself as "pretty conservative," and says he believes in leaving people alone to live their lives if they're not impacting anyone else.
Wealthy ex-state Rep. Victor Mitchell is the only other declared GOP candidate. However, prominent suburban Denver District Attorney George Brauchler is talking about jumping in, while state Attorney General Cynthia Coffman and state Treasurer Walker Stapleton are reportedly considering, and it won't be easy for Gaiter or Mitchell to match any of them.
● FL-Gov: Back in mid-February, Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn said he'd decide if he'll seek the Democratic nod, "Within the next month or two." Buckhorn has now moved up his timeline quite a bit, telling the National Journal on Monday that he'll decide "within days."
● IL-Gov: It'll be a while before the Democratic field to take on first-term Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner coalesces, and that means it'll probably be a while before we see any good polling featuring head-to-head matchups between the incumbent and actual challengers. But in the meantime, there's a new survey from Democratic pollster Anzalone Liszt Grove, taken on behalf of the American Heart Association, that pits Rauner against an unnamed "Democratic candidate" and finds him trailing by a painful 47-32 margin.
Now, as we always caution when polls test "generic Democrat" or "generic Republican," it's easy for these numbers to be inflated. Respondents get to imagine their most ideal Platonic form of a candidate, whereas in reality, parties nominate flawed people who wind up getting hammered by attack ads. And given Rauner's personal wealth (his net worth is reportedly $1 billion, and he already seeded his re-election campaign with $50 million), there will be no shortage of attacks.
But all caveats aside, 32 percent is still a rough place for any incumbent to be, especially a Republican running in a blue state where, thanks to decades of endemic corruption and governmental sclerosis, voters often seem to sour on their elected leaders. Interestingly, the Heart Association paid for this poll to gauge support for a tax on sugary drinks, which voters back 56-41; their original press release didn't even mention Rauner, but presumably they leaked the horserace data to demonstrate that the governor is even less popular than a proposed new tax.
Rauner's money, though, assures that this will be a difficult race no matter how it unfolds—or whom Democrats nominate. So far, three candidates are running, most prominent among them businessman Chris Kennedy, a son of Robert F. Kennedy, but several others are considering. And with Rauner's position looking uncertain at best, the field may yet grow.
● OH-Gov: Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley has been considering seeking the Democratic nomination next year, but she's also running for re-election this November. However, if Whaley wants to seek both offices at once, her job got a lot easier last week when the filing deadline for the mayoral race passed and Whaley learned she was running unopposed.
● TN-Gov: Wealthy businessman Randy Boyd stepped down as commissioner of the state's Department of Economic and Community Development back in January and soon began talking about running for governor, and on Monday, he announced he was in. Boyd, who also owns two East Tennessee minor league baseball teams, joins state Sen. Mark Green in the GOP primary. However, a number of other Republicans are eyeing this open seat, so they'll likely have plenty of company before too long. On the Democratic side, ex-Nashville Mayor Karl Dean has the field to himself, but state House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh says he's leaning towards running.
House
● CA-34: If Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez doesn't win the upcoming special election for this safely blue downtown Los Angeles seat, it won't be because he didn't get enough endorsements. Ex-Rep. Xavier Becerra, who represented this district until he became California's attorney general earlier this year, threw his support behind Gomez on Friday. Becerra joins Sen. Kamala Harris, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, the state Democratic Party, and a number of major unions in Gomez's corner. A number of other Democrats are also in and; in the all-but-certain event that no one takes a majority in the April 4 jungle primary, the top two candidates will advance to a June 6 general election regardless of party.
● GA-06: With the April 18 primary now six weeks away, the special election for Georgia's 6th Congressional District is starting to heat up. Signaling some worry about the intense outpouring of enthusiasm for Democrat Jon Ossoff, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC close to Paul Ryan, launched the first ads of the race last week, a $1.1 million campaign that (seriously) "attacked" Ossoff for dressing up as Han Solo when he was in college. Judging by anecdotal evidence, at least, the effort has some real potential to backfire, as most online comments have been along the lines of, "This guy seems cool—I just donated! #jonshotfirst".
Perhaps, though, the ads are faring better with older, Jabba-supporting voters (known to be a very pro-Hutt cohort), since Ossoff responded with a trio of spots of his own. (The reported buy is much smaller, though: just $75,000 so far.) Ossoff's first ad directly pushes back at the CLF's attempt to paint him as inexperienced, with a narrator describing Ossoff as "a national security aide with top secret clearance" who "fought to stop" "waste and abuse by military contractors." The spot adds that in his work as an investigative filmmaker, Ossoff "took on corrupt foreign officials who were stealing U.S. tax dollars and helped send them to jail."
Ossoff himself narrates the second ad, laying out his priorities, including fixing Obamacare, because "repealing it makes no sense." At the end, he also goes right at Trump, saying, "When President Trump embarrasses our country or acts recklessly, I'll hold him accountable." The final spot, meanwhile, is focused entirely on Trump. It shows Ossoff in a high-tech command center as a digital clock counts down above him: "Imagine you had thirty seconds to make a life or death decision affecting thousands of Americans," he says. "That's what we expect of our President. Sound judgment. That's why it's so concerning to see President Trump act so impulsively. He's not only embarrassing us on the world stage. He could start an unnecessary war." Concludes Ossoff as the clock strikes zero: "We can't let Donald Trump put us at risk."
And the first ad from a GOP candidate has now dropped, too, though it's a weird one. Former state Sen. Dan Moody, who's reportedly putting $300,000 behind this buy, is out with a minute-long spot that looks like a particularly whacked-out nature video, featuring footage of distressed-looking donkeys and elephants. A narrator delivers a meandering, metaphorical discourse on how poorly these animals behave until finally, 41 seconds in, Moody finally appears, shoveling up behind them, because he's "repeatedly proven he's willing to joyfully do the hard stuff." It's a poop-themed ad. We get it.
Finally, we also have a new survey of the race, from Republican pollster Trafalgar Group. The poll finds Ossoff tied at 18 with the best-known Republican running, former Secretary of State Karen Handel. Another Republican, wealthy businessman Bob Gray is at 13, while four other Republicans are in single digits. (Former state Sen. Ron Slotin, the only other Democrat tested, takes 3 percent.) The only other poll we've seen came from another GOP firm, Clout Research, which found the same players in the top three spots, but with much more spacing between them (Ossoff 32, Handel 25, Gray 11). With most candidates not yet on the air, a lot can and will change.
● MT-AL: The field is now set for Montana’s May 25 special election to replace GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke, who was just confirmed as Trump's interior secretary last week. On Sunday, Democrats selected well-known country musician Rob Quist, who had been endorsed by former Gov. Brian Schweitzer. Quist defeated state Rep. Amanda Curtis 90-69 on the fourth ballot cast by delegates; Curtis had been chosen at a similar convention back in 2014 to serve as the Democrats’ Senate nominee after Sen. John Walsh dropped out following a plagiarism scandal.
Republicans, meanwhile, chose businessman Greg Gianforte, who lost a bid for governor last year, on their first ballot at a gathering on Monday night. Gianforte is extremely rich—he sold a software company to Oracle, reportedly for $300 to $400 million—and plowed over $5 million of his own fortune into his 2016 campaign. But even though Donald Trump carried Montana by 20 points, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock defeated Gianforte 50-46.
In part, Bullock won because Democrats successfully painted Gianforte as a wealthy carpetbagger (DGA ads called him “a millionaire from New Jersey”) who, among other things, had sought to block public access to a river along which he owned property—this in a state with deep reverence for hunting and fishing. That issue won’t go away, though of course, Gianforte can once again flood the Montana airwaves, where advertising is cheap.
Quist’s Montana roots, on the other hand, are not in question, and he’ll offer an interesting test-case for Team Blue: He's running as a populist outsider (he was a Bernie Sanders supporter) with a real focus on rural communities in a state heavily dominated by white working-class voters. He's not a complete newcomer to politics, though, seeing as he served on the state's arts council for 11 years (which explains his connection to Schweitzer). Lots of pundits and operatives have called for Democrats to adopt a message more like Quist's; we'll have to see if it resonates.
Republicans, at least, are taking Quist seriously enough that they've already launched a $700,000 ad campaign against him. The spot, from the Congressional Leadership Fund, follows the predictable GOP red-state playbook: It attacks Quist for supporting "a government health care plan even more expensive than Obamacare" and "devastating cuts to America's military budget." Concludes the narrator: Quist is "too liberal and out-of-touch for Montana."
● SC-05: The GOP primary has gotten most of the attention in this special election, which is no surprise since Trump carried this northern seat 57-39. But last week, former Goldman Sachs senior advisor Archie Parnell confirmed he would run, making him the first declared Democratic candidate. Parnell's Wall Street ties may give him access to some money, but he'll need a lot to go right to be competitive in a district this red. The filing deadline is March 13, with the general election taking place June 20.
● House: The NRCC recently unveiled the first 10 members of its Patriot Program to defend potentially vulnerable members. This week, their counterparts at the DCCC released the names of the first 19 members of its own Frontline incumbent defense program. Below is the list of members, as well as Trump's 2016 performance in their seats:
AZ-01: Tom O'Halleran, 48-47
CA-07: Ami Bera, 41-52
CA-24: Salud Carbajal, 37-57
CA-36: Raul Ruiz, 43-52
CA-52: Scott Peters, 36-58
CT-05: Elizabeth Esty, 46-50
FL-07: Stephanie Murphy, 44-51
FL-13: Charlie Crist, 46-50
IA-02: Dave Loebsack, 49-45
IL-10: Brad Schneider, 33-62
IL-17: Cheri Bustos, 47.4-46.7
MN-08: Rick Nolan, 54-39
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer, 49-48
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter, 48-47
NH-02: Annie Kuster, 46-49
NV-03: Jacky Rosen, 48-47
NV-04: Ruben Kihuen, 45-50
NY-03: Tom Suozzi, 46-52
NY-18: Sean Maloney, 49-47
Many of the 12 Democrats in Trump seats are on the list, but not all. Missing from the list are MN-01's Tim Walz (53-38); MN-07's Collin Peterson (62-31); PA-17's Matt Cartwright (53-43); and WI-03's Ron Kind (49-45).
Other Races
● VA-LG: Four years ago, the Virginia GOP nominating convention picked little-known minister E.W. Jackson to serve as their standard bearer, a decision that proved disastrous. This time, the GOP will choose their lieutenant governor nominee at a June 13 primary, but that's not stopping this race from becoming an utter shit-show. To sum things up: State Sen. Bryce Reeves is accusing GOP primary rival and fellow state Sen. Jill Holtzman Vogel, or at least someone close to her, of spreading false rumors insinuating that he had an affair with a campaign staffer. Reeves recently asked a judge to allow his lawyers to question two of Holtzman Vogel's neighbors and two GOP activists to see what they know. A third Republican, Del. Glenn Davis Jr., is running and has managed to stay out of this mess.
The Democratic primary is far more sedate. The candidates are former federal prosecutor Justin Fairfax, who lost the 2013 primary for attorney general to eventual winner Mark Herring 52-48; Gene Rossi, another former federal prosecutor; and Susan Platt, who served as Joe Biden's chief of staff in the Senate in the 1990s. While the general election will be overshadowed by the gubernatorial race, this is an important contest. The GOP has just a 21-19 majority in the Virginia Senate and if Democrats can net just one seat in the 2019 elections (or through a special election before then), the lieutenant governor will be tasked with breaking the tie. The lieutenant governor's office is also one of the few statewide elected offices in Virginia, and it can be a good stepping-stone to bigger things.
● Los Angeles, CA Measure S: The Los Angeles municipal primary election is on March 7, but the top-of-the-ticket item is a real snooze, since Democratic Mayor Eric Garcetti faces only minor opposition in his quest for a second term. Instead, the most hotly contested item is a ballot measure, Measure S. You wouldn't expect a measure about zoning and land use laws to generate much passion, but Los Angeles is one of those major cities that's choking on its own success, where skyrocketing housing costs are the main sources of dissatisfaction and in fact a potential threat to further growth and dynamism. The problem is, everyone has their own theory about what's driving those costs, and Measure S's proponents think that overdevelopment is what needs to be stopped.
Measure S is, ostensibly, about stopping the nexus between elected officials and developers, who allegedly give donations to officials in exchange for "spot zoning" changes (which, in theory, are already illegal in California) that let them build expensive new buildings. However, Measure S is a particularly broad response, which would create a temporary ban on all new projects in that lift land use restrictions or increase building heights or densities.
Opponents contend that the problem is not enough units in a city that people are pouring into, and Los Angeles needs 382,000 new units just to meet current demand; that increasing supply is the only way to bring down costs; and that passing the measure will bring new development to a halt, making it even less affordable for future generations of people who'd like to move to L.A. and participate in its otherwise thriving economy. Though most of the city's elected officials, business interests, and labor are all on the "no" side, the "yes" side has actually spent more money on the election. However, most of that money comes from one source, the AIDS Healthcare Foundation … for whom the main objection seems to be a literally "not in my backyard" objection to a particular new project next to its headquarters.
Grab Bag
● International: Daily Kos Elections published its latest International Elections Digest covering key electoral developments around the world. Left-wing populists could lose power in Ecuador's presidential runoff after a decade in power, and France's critical presidential race keeps lurching from one surprise to the next. Check out the full March edition for other stories on the Netherlands, Macedonia, East Timor, and other countries.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
