MO-Sen: In a major surprise, Republican Rep. Ann Wagner announced on Monday that she would not run against vulnerable Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill next year, depriving the GOP of a big-name challenger who'd (mostly) given every indication that she wanted to go for it. But Wagner's greatest strength was also one of her greatest flaws: As a former state party chair and RNC committeewoman, Wagner had a proven ability to raise tons of money. That, however, also marked her as consummate insider—and in a GOP primary, that can be a deadly albatross.
Indeed, we've been flagging that very problem for Wagner ever since November, and since then, it's metastasized from purely theoretical to genuinely threatening as a potential campaign from state Attorney General Josh Hawley began to gather steam. Hawley, a rigid conservative, hasn't ruled out a bid, and he has some influential supporters backing his play. We also know he's ambitious: He's just 37 and was only elected to his current post last fall.
He also lacks something else dogging Wagner: a voting record in Congress, which the Washington Examiner's David Drucker reports "some Republicans" say has made Hawley "the preferred recruit" of the NRSC. But in Republican politics, preferred recruits seldom have a clear path to their party's nomination, and Hawley might discover just that if he runs.
That's because Wagner's exit opens the door for all sorts of politicians, not just Hawley. And that door’s already ajar: Shortly after the news broke, Rep. Vicky Hartzler, an anti-gay extremist who represents a big swath of rural west-central Missouri, issued a statement saying that she "has not ruled [] out" a bid of her own.
Plenty of other Republicans have been mentioned over the course of the year, too, and more may yet surface. Drucker suggests that Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, whose name hadn't previously come up, "could seed a campaign with a couple of million dollars," and indeed, he probably could—his estimated net worth skyrocketed in 2014 (the most recent year disclosures are available) to almost $16 million.
It's still eminently possible that Hawley would coast in the primary, but as Drucker notes, he has issues of his own. Hawley ran ads during his race for attorney general attacking "career politicians just climbing the ladder, using one office to get another," something hypothetical opponents could easily flip against him. And as an unnamed GOP strategist observes to Drucker, Hawley's "never had to prove himself" but rather has "this golden-boy glow from afar."
Almost every Missouri Republican seeking statewide office last year won easily, Hawley among them. A more difficult race, whether an intra-party face-off or a general election against the hard-working McCaskill, would test him in a way he's never been tested before.
