The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● TX Redistricting: Late on Tuesday, a federal court in San Antonio struck down Texas' congressional map on the grounds that the Republican lawmakers who drew it had engaged in intentional racial discrimination in violation of both the Voting Rights Act and the 14th Amendment. The court ordered lawmakers to swiftly lay out their plans to redraw the map. The new districts will take effect for the 2018 midterm elections if this ruling survives a likely appeal to the Supreme Court.
Campaign Action
Meanwhile, Texas' Republican Gov. Greg Abbott didn't sound too keen on calling a special session over redistricting, stating that he feels "confident the Supreme Court will overturn [the ruling]." If he doesn't do so ahead of the court's Friday deadline, the court itself could redraw the map after its upcoming Sept. 5 hearing.
If the Supreme Court ultimately sustains this ruling, Democrats and Latinos could gain one congressional seat. However, that's a major disappointment compared to the two or even three seats that plaintiffs had hoped for. Specifically, the court invalidated Republican Rep. Blake Farenthold's 27th District, which is based in Corpus Christi and branches northwest toward Austin and northeast toward the Houston area, and Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett's 35th District, which connects San Antonio and Austin via a narrow tendril.
However, the court did not strike down Republican Rep. Will Hurd's 23rd District, a huge beast that stretches from El Paso to San Antonio, something that multiple redistricting experts had expected to happen. The court also declined to strike down any districts in the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area even though plaintiffs—and an analysis by Daily Kos Elections—have repeatedly demonstrated that Republicans could have easily drawn another district in the region that would allow Latinos to elect their candidate of choice. In a new post, Stephen Wolf takes a detailed look at what could happen next in Texas.
Senate
● ND-Sen: On Wednesday, state Sen. Tom Campbell became the first major North Dakota Republican to enter the race against Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. Campbell reportedly is wealthy, and a campaign consultant suggested back in April that if he ran, Campbell could immediately drop $2 million into his fledgling Senate bid. North Dakota is a very conservative state, and Heitkamp will be a top GOP target next year. Heitkamp has not yet announced if she'll seek a second term, but her fundraising strongly indicates that she's in.
At the beginning of this cycle, Rep. Kevin Cramer, who represents the entire state in the House, was the top choice of national Republicans. Campbell himself reportedly said that while he would run for Congress, he would campaign for whichever seat Cramer wasn't running for.
However, Cramer spent the first half of 2017 making embarrassing statement after embarrassing statement, most notably criticizing female congressional Democrats for their attire, and national Republicans reportedly decided months ago that Campbell would make a better candidate. Cramer himself still has yet to announce his 2018 plans, and it's unclear if Campbell jumped in the race believing that Cramer wasn't running, or the state senator just decided he wasn't going to defer to him anymore.
● NV-Sen: Clark County District Attorney Steve Wolfson never seemed like a particularly likely candidate for Senate, but the Nevada Democrat didn't quite close the door on a campaign back in March when Team Blue had no noteworthy candidate in the race. However, following Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen's entry into the contest last month with major support from key party groups, Wolfson announced on Wednesday that he will run for re-election as district attorney next year instead.
Gubernatorial
● FL-Gov: On Wednesday, Republican state Sen. Jack Latvala finally made his long-awaited gubernatorial campaign official by formally announcing he will run to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Rick Scott. Latvala has acquired a reputation as a relative moderate and starts the race with nearly $4 million in the bank as of the end of July, while serving as the state Senate's appropriations committee chair should give him connections to raise some serious dough in this expensive state.
Latvala so far only faces state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, who has been raising millions since 2015, in the GOP primary. However, it could soon become a more crowded affair as Rep. Ron DeSantis and state House Speaker Richard Corcoran have been considering whether to join the race. While Latvala's moderate image may ruffle some feathers with the primary base, he may yet be able to prevail with just a plurality if multiple rivals split the ultra-conservative vote.
● PA-Gov: Last December, former Republican Lt. Gov. Jim Cawley hadn't ruled out challenging Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf as the latter seeks re-election next year. However, Cawley recently took a new job at Temple University to be vice president of institutional advancement, leading him to tell PoliticsPA "That is a pretty full plate and is how I see me spending my time through 2017 and 2018." While that isn't an explicit "no" to a gubernatorial campaign, taking this sort of position is a pretty definitive sign that the former lieutenant governor won't be running to lead the Keystone State next year.
House
● AL-05: On Tuesday evening, Rep. Mo Brooks took just 20 percent of the vote in Alabama's GOP Senate primary, while ex-state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore and appointed Sen. Luther Strange took 39 and 33 percent, respectively. Brooks quickly announced that he would run for re-election to his Huntsville-area 5th District next year, but while the GOP nominee should have little trouble in this 65-31 Trump seat, Brooks may be in for another tough primary battle.
Brooks did carry his northern Alabama seat on Tuesday, but his margins were not impressive. According to our calculations, Brooks took 41 percent of the vote in the 5th District, while opponents Roy Moore and Sen. Luther Strange grabbed 28 and 27 percent, respectively. Brooks' showing at home was far better than his statewide performance, but 41 percent is not a great performance for a four-term congressman. A credible opponent may be able to convince primary voters to dump Brooks, and he may already have one.
Businessman Clayton Hinchman, an Army Ranger who lost his right leg in Iraq, entered the race a little while ago, and he has an important ally. As the Washington Examiner's David Drucker noted in July, Hinchman's general consultant is none other than Ward Baker, who served as executive director of the NRSC in 2016 and is an advisor to the high-profile Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely tied to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Until Tuesday, Brooks was running against Strange, who had the support of McConnell and the SLF. It's likely that McConnellworld was helping Hinchman in part to distract Brooks during the final weeks before Election Day. Now that Brooks' role in the Senate race is over, it's unclear if McConnell and his allies will turn their attention elsewhere, or if they decide to make an example of Brooks by driving him out of Congress. A Tuesday night tweet from Josh Holmes, a former McConnell chief of staff who remains close to the majority leader, however, hints that Brooks' battle with the McConnell network isn't over.
If McConnell decides to continue his war on Brooks, he already has a ready-made line of attack. During the Senate race, SLF ran ad after ad featuring clips of Brooks disparaging Donald Trump during last year's presidential primary. Brooks was backing Ted Cruz, but the SLF made it sound like Brooks was siding with Nancy Pelosi over Trump, and the congressman never found a good way to fight back.
Brooks' meh performance at home on Tuesday hardly indicates he's doomed, though. As we've seen before, it's easier to convince primary voters to deny an incumbent a promotion than to convince them to fire him. In March of last year, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio lost the presidential primary at home to Trump by a brutal 46-27 margin. But Rubio decided to run for re-election, and in late August, he turned back a primary challenge from wealthy businessman Carlos Beruff 72-18.
And while McConnell's allies may help Hinchman raise money, it's very unlikely that they'll direct much outside money to a House race in a year where there will be a ton of competitive Senate races to get involved in. But if Hinchman has the resources he'll need to get his name out, Brooks could still be in for another rough ride.
● KS-02: State Rep. Kevin Jones is the latest Republican to join the race for Kansas' open 2nd District, which includes Topeka, Lawrence, and eastern Kansas outside of Kansas City. While serving as a legislator in 2015, Jones interestingly enough appeared on the game show "American Ninja Warrior," where contestants perform feats of strength and dexterity to navigate an obstacle course. Unfortunately for Jones, who is a retired Army Green Beret, he lasted only three seconds until landing in the water, though he seemed to take it in stride. Meanwhile state Sen. Caryn Tyson reportedly told a local journalist that she is considering her own GOP primary campaign, though there's no direct quote.
GOP Rep. Lynn Jenkins announced back in January that she won't seek re-election in this 56-37 Trump seat, but there hasn't yet been a mad dash of Republicans declaring for what on paper should be a strongly GOP seat. However, state Sen. Steve Fitzgerald and Basehor City Councilor Vernon Fields are already running in the Republican primary.
● UT-03: And that's a wrap! The Associated Press called the Republican primary for Provo Mayor John Curtis in Tuesday's special election to replace Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who resigned in June to cash out by joining Fox News. With 91 percent of precincts reporting, Curtis leads former state Rep. Chris Herrod 41-31, with consultant Tanner Ainge taking 28 percent. Despite facing an ex-legislator who won endorsements from the party convention and prominent hard-right groups like the Club for Growth, Curtis nevertheless prevailed in this staunchly Republican seat, which includes Provo and Sandy, even though the mayor openly opposed Trump in 2016.
As America's most heavily Mormon congressional district, Utah's 3rd District backed quasi-native son Mitt Romney by 78-19, but Donald Trump won it by a much weaker 47-24 over Evan McMullin, with Hillary Clinton actually taking third place at 23 percent. However, as a Mormon and conservative independent, McMullin took many votes from Mormon Republicans who detested Trump but were otherwise steadfast GOP voters. Indeed, Republicans running for Senate and governor cleared 70 percent here last year.
Curtis should be a commanding favorite to win the Nov. 7 general election, but he'll at least face a Democratic foe with the means to get her message out. Physician Kathryn Allen won the Democratic nod, and she capitalized on national outrage over Chaffetz's failure to investigate the Trump administration as chairman of the House Oversight Committee, raising significant funds earlier this year before he called it quits. Allen finished June with $479,000 on hand, but it would likely take the stars to align here for Democrats to even come close in such a historically dark-red seat.
Mayoral
● Seattle, WA Mayor: Tuesday was vote certification day, two weeks after the top-two primary for the Seattle mayoral race, and with all votes finally counted, there weren't significant changes from the first day's results. Ex-U.S. Attorney Jenny Durkan and urban planner Cary Moon will advance, finishing with 28 and 18 percent respectively. The more establishmentarian Durkan fell from 32 on Election Day, consistent with the usual pattern of the further-left candidate gaining ground as Seattle election results are slowly counted—though the effect was somewhat blunted because the left-ish vote gains were split between Moon and third-place finisher Nikkita Oliver. Oliver finished at 17 percent, 1,170 votes behind Moon, not close enough to trigger a recount.
Moon has been trying to tie herself to Oliver as the votes were counted (presumably hoping to win over Oliver's voters), but on Tuesday, Oliver made it clear she won't be endorsing either candidate soon, and in particular, wasn't having it with Moon, singling out her wealth and self-funding as cause for skepticism. There's also a significant demographic split between the voters for Moon (who, like Durkan, is white) and Oliver (who is African-American)—maps show that while Durkan performed well throughout the city, Moon's votes were clustered in mostly-white, upper-middle-class parts of the city while Oliver's votes were clustered in poorer, younger, and more diverse parts of the city—so it's not immediately clear what happens to Oliver's voters.
In addition, it's looking like Durkan is consolidating labor behind her for November; two unions that hadn't endorsed anyone before the primary, ILWU (the Longshoremen) and the Building & Construction Trades Council, are now backing her.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now?: Back in 2014, California Republican Paul Chabot lost an unexpectedly close race to now-Rep. Pete Aguilar 52-48 in the Redlands-area 31st Congressional District, only to lose their rematch 56-44 last year. Chabot, who also lost a state Assembly bid in 2010, has had enough of most of his would-be constituents, though. The New York Times' Emily Badger reports that Chabot has not only moved to Texas, he's started a business called "Conservative Move" to help fellow blue state social conservatives flee to like-minded communities.
