The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● PA-15: Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent, one of the least-conservative Republicans left in the House and a frequent Trump critic, announced on Thursday evening that he would not seek an eighth term next year, saying the White House had "taken the fun out of dysfunction." Dent, who first won his Lehigh Valley seat in 2004, had always won re-election with ease, and Democrats have never seriously targeted him. Although Republicans redrew this seat, which includes the cities Allentown and Bethlehem, to become several points redder in the last round of redistricting, Dent's departure gives Democrats a much better chance to capture it than if he stuck around again.
Campaign Action
While Trump carried Pennsylvania's 15th District 52-44, Mitt Romney won it by a narrower 51-48 margin four years before, and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey actually won this seat by a small 50-48 spread during his 2012 re-election campaign. But Republicans should be able to keep this race competitive: In 2014, even as deeply unpopular GOP Gov. Tom Corbett was losing re-election 55-45 statewide, he still just barely won the 15th 50.3-49.7.
A few days before Dent announced his departure, he picked up a primary challenge from state Rep. Justin Simmons, who argued that the congressman "sides with the Democrats and gloats at sticking it to Republicans and the president." Dent very much does not want Simmons to succeed him, and he predicted on Friday that a "centrist, pragmatic Republican" would join the race "imminently."
Since Dent's decision to call it quits, a second legislator has already jumped in, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Mackenzie may or may not be the pragmatist Dent has in mind: The Morning Call describes him as "more conservative than Dent," but also says he's more friendly with the congressman than Simmons is (though given the animosity between Simmons and Dent, that wouldn't be hard). Democrats would prefer to face a tea partier like Simmons rather than a more low-key opponent in the Dent mold, but they'll be looking to put this seat in play no matter who the GOP nominates.
A few other Republicans are eyeing this seat. Morning Call reports that Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein, who won a gold medal in cycling at the 2000 Olympics, has said he's interested, though there's no quote from Nothstein. Dauphin County Commissioner Mike Pries tells the paper that he's been asked to run, and that he is thinking about it.
Senate
● CA-Sen: Throughout her 25 years in the Senate, Democratic incumbent Dianne Feinstein has often rankled the progressive base in California, but at the same time she has rarely ventured too far to the center to anger the party mainstream enough to earn a major primary challenger. However, after Feinstein's recent comments urging giving Trump the benefit of the doubt this early in his presidency despite his long list of harmful policy changes and proposals, some California Democrats are giving a second thought about challenging the 84-year-old incumbent, who still has not fully committed to running for re-election despite raising money like she will.
The latest name to surface as a challenger from the left is Joseph Sanberg, whom Politico describes as a wealthy financial entrepreneur, though Sanberg has yet to declare his interest publicly. Sanberg is a co-founder of investment firm Aspiration.com and was a founding investor in the online meal delivery service Blue Apron, meaning he may be able to self-fund a serious amount even for such an exorbitantly expensive state. Sanberg also successfully lobbied for the establishment of CalEITC4ME, which is the state version of the earned income tax credit for low-income households. He was also president of the college Democrats while at Harvard and undoubtedly has some major connections.
Sanberg doesn't appear to have run for office before, but he has taken some steps that look like a prospective candidate, having launched a new statewide ad and website while also hiring some consultants who are prominent in Democratic circles. Nevertheless, defeating Feinstein will likely be monumentally difficult given her long tenure, the extreme costliness of campaigning in such a big state, and California's top-two primary, where all candidates run on a single ballot and the top two finishers advance regardless of party.
Just getting into a top-two general election with Feinstein would require the GOP to have a very weak candidate, and almost certainly multiple ones of them unless Feinstein and one other Democrat near perfectly split the vote in the primary. Given the shambles that California Republicans are in at the statewide level, that's not impossible—it happened in the open 2016 Senate race—but it's not guaranteed. Sanberg has to hope that another prominent progressive challenger like term-limited state Senate President Kevin de León doesn't also jump in, which would considerably raise the odds that Feinstein faces a Republican.
Actually beating Feinstein in the general election could prove near-impossible if she could consolidate Republican support and that of more moderate Democrats, but an all-Democratic general election could have brutal consequences for downballot Republicans. GOP turnout might fall considerably if there is no Republican general election candidate for Senate and for governor, the latter of which looks like a much more distinct possibility with an open-seat race in 2018. Progressives may not be able to dislodge Feinstein if she runs again, but vigorously challenging her from the left could ironically end up costing Republican candidates dearly for House and the state legislature.
● VA-Sen: After spending months flirting with a bid against Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina, the 2010 California Senate nominee, 2016 GOP presidential primary candidate, and Ted Cruz's seven-day running mate, announced that she would take a pass. However, a different failed 2016 GOP candidate may jump in instead.
Ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore said in late February that he was interested, and he told CNN on Friday that he's still considering. Gilmore lost the open 2008 Senate race to Democrat Mark Warner by a brutal 65-34 and actually got demoted out of the undercard debates during the presidential primary, so he has little dignity left to lose. So far, Confederate fan boy Corey Stewart, the head of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors and almost-2017 gubernatorial nominee, is the only noteworthy Republican who has entered the race. A Gilmore-Stewart primary isn't the race Republicans need, but it's sure as snot the race they deserve.
Gubernatorial
● ID-Gov, ID-01: While Attorney General Lawrence Wasden was mentioned as a possible GOP candidate for governor or for Idaho's 1st Congressional District this cycle, he announced on Thursday that he would seek a fifth term instead.
● NV-Gov: Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani has talked about joining the Democratic primary for a while, and while she hasn't committed to anything, she told a recent gathering of Washoe County Democrats on Thursday, "99.9 percent, I'm running for governor." If Giunchigliani flips that remaining 0.01 percent of doubt, she'll face fellow Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak in the primary. Giunchigliani sought higher office back in 2011 and lost an open seat race by 61-39 for mayor of Las Vegas against independent Carolyn Goodman, whose husband Oscar Goodman was the outgoing mayor.
And as we like to remind readers, politicians sometimes sound very likely to run but don't in the end. Back in March of 2015, Michigan Republican Jack Brandenburg said he was "90 percent there" when it came to whether he'd run for an open House seat; ten months later, he didn't run. There's also Florida Republican David Simmons, who said at the beginning of April of this year that he was "98 percent headed towards a run" against freshman Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy, but has yet to make his move five months later even as other candidates have jumped in.
House
● AL-05: On behalf of BamaCarry, which describes itself as "Alabama's only 'No Compromise' gun rights group," WT&S Consulting takes a look at next year's GOP primary for this red northern Alabama seat. They give Rep. Mo Brooks, who recently lost the special primary for Senate, a clear lead with 56 percent of the vote. State Sen. Bill Holtzclaw is a distant second with 22 percent, while businessman and veteran Clayton Hinchman takes 5. It is unclear if BamaCarry has a dog in this fight. Brooks pissed off Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell when he ran for the Senate, and a key McConnell ally is aiding Hinchman's campaign.
● CO-02: Back in July, businessman Mark Williams stepped down as head of the Boulder County Democratic Party while he considered a bid for this open seat, and he's now announced he's in. Williams, an Air Force veteran who is the CEO of a consulting business, will face Joe Neguse, the former head of the Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies, in next year's Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Jared Polis. After Polis announced he was leaving this seat to run for governor in June, a few other Democrats expressed interest in this Boulder-area seat, but things have remained fairly quiet here so far. Clinton won 56-35 here.
● HI-01: Rep. Colleen Hanabusa announced at the beginning of the month that she was leaving behind this Honolulu seat to challenge Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary, meaning that we have an open seat race here for the third cycle in a row. Thankfully, though, Hanabusa's field coordinator Reena Rabago tells Civil Beat that the congresswoman will not resign to focus on her bid for governor.
Hawaii has a bizarre special election law that requires all candidates to run on one ballot, with no primary or runoff. In 2010, after then-Rep. Neil Abercrombie resigned during his own gubernatorial bid, Republican Charles Djou won the ensuing special election with just 40 percent of the vote. Hanabusa and ex-Rep. Ed Case took a combined 59 percent of the vote, but because they split the Democratic vote, Djou's 40 percent was enough to send him to Congress for a few months. (Hanabusa unseated him 53-47 that November.) Clinton won this seat 63-31, and another crazy special election here is the last thing Democrats would want in what's usually a very blue seat.
There are plenty of local Democrats who could run here, including some of the people who ran in the crowded 2014 race to succeed Hanabusa when she left to unsuccessfully run for the Senate. State Sen. Donna Mercado Kim, a former state Senate president, was the 2014 primary runner-up, losing to Mark Takei (who died of cancer last year) 44-28. Kim tells Civil Beat's Chad Blair that she is "seriously looking at" another run, but since her mother has been ill, she wants to see how she's doing before making a decision. Last time, Kim began the race as the frontrunner, and she had the support of EMILY's List. However, Kim voted against legalizing same-sex marriage in 2013, which did not please progressives. Kim also said during the campaign that she wanted Hawaii to obtain an exemption from Obamacare.
State Rep. Kaniela Ing also tells Blair that he's considering, saying that unnamed progressive groups want him to run. However, Ing represents Maui in the state House, which is entirely located in the 2nd Congressional District. It's not uncommon for Honolulu-based politicians to just run for whichever seat is open at the time (about 70 percent of the island is in the 1st, while the balance is in the 2nd). For instance, Hanabusa herself ran for the open 2nd in 2006 and narrowly lost the primary to now-Sen. Mazie Hirono four years before she won this seat. But it's a lot more unusual for politicians from other Hawaiian islands to make a serious drive for this Honolulu seat.
Ing did play up his local ties, noting that he was student body president at the University of Hawaii Manoa and has spent years working in Honolulu in the legislature. Ing also argued that Honolulu is in danger of becoming too expensive for anyone to live but the "super rich," declaring that, "Every politician says we want to change that, but there are donors—that elite 1 percent—that add to the problem. The only way to change that is a grassroots campaign."
Blair also writes that the name getting the most buzz in Democratic circles is Attorney General Doug Chin. In Hawaii, the attorney general is appointed by the governor rather than elected statewide, but Chin has made a name for himself in recent months by repeatedly suing the Trump administration. Notably, Hawaii was the first state to sue to overturn Trump's Muslim travel ban. Blair also name-drops state Sens. Karl Rhoads and Stanley Chang (Chang took third place in the 2014 primary with 10 percent of the vote) and state Rep. John Mizuno, but it's not clear how interested any of them are.
● IL-06: Another Democrat has joined the primary to take on GOP Rep. Peter Roskam in this suburban Chicago seat. Sean Casten, who runs a clean energy business, jumped in on Thursday. Casten actually set up a campaign account with the FEC months ago and loaned his campaign $105,000 sometime before July 1, but this is the first time we've heard from him. A number of other Democrats are campaigning for this seat, which flipped from 53-45 Romney to 50-43 Clinton, and there's no clear frontrunner.
● NJ-07: Democrat Goutam Jois, who has worked as a civil rights and immigration lawyer, has joined the primary to face Leonard Lance in this central New Jersey seat. Jois, who has been working as a corporate lawyer, also won the title of “America's Funniest Attorney” in 2012 at the Gotham Comedy Club, though for better or for worse, we don't have any excerpts of his winning jokes.
Jois recently left the firm Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, which has been defending GOP Gov. Chris Christie in the Bridgegate scandal at taxpayer expense, though Jois says he's had no involvement with the matter. The 7th District has a large Indian-American community, which could help Jois in the primary. However, fellow Democratic candidate Peter Jacob, a social worker who lost to Lance 54-43 in 2016, is also Indian-American.
In addition to Jacob, bank vice president Linda Weber, teacher Lisa Mandelblatt, and lawyer Scott Salmon (who does not seem to have ever won the title of America's Funniest Attorney), are all running to take on Lance in this suburban seat, which moved from 53-46 Romney to 49-48 Clinton. Mandelblatt outraised Weber $157,000 to $117,000 from April to June and also loaned herself $100,000. At the end of June, Mandelblatt had $203,000 in her war-chest to Weber's $85,000, while Salmon and Jacob each had less than $50,000 on-hand. Lance had $351,000 available, not a massive sum for an incumbent in a seat located in the ultra-expensive New York City media market.
● VA-10: While the DCCC recruited state Sen. Jennifer Wexton to challenge GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock in this Northern Virginia seat, the Huffington Post's Eliot Nelson reports that they've chosen to assist several primary candidates rather than favor her. Part of their consideration seems to be that Wexton, who looked like the early frontrunner, isn't exactly dominating the money race in this expensive seat.
In fact, three Democratic candidates outraised Wexton from April to June. Alison Friedman, who worked at the State Department from 2009 to 2015 to combat human trafficking, entered the race just before the reporting deadline and quickly raised $404,000 and loaned herself another $49,000. Former Veterans Administration official Lindsey Davis Stover and former Naval intelligence officer David Hanson brought in $306,000 and $246,000, respectively.
Wexton, the only elected official in the bunch, raised $202,000, leading just local school head Deep Sran's $77,000 haul. (Another candidate, ex-Fairfax teachers union president Kimberly Adams only filed with the FEC in July.) Still, unnamed local Democrats tell Nelson they still favor Wexton, who won a critical special election in early 2014, though they seem fine with all their options.
This seat swung from a narrow 51-49 Romney win all the way to 52-42 Clinton, but Comstock won a very expensive re-election campaign 53-47. Comstock is going to have a very tough time if Trump is anywhere near as unpopular here next November as he is now, but she's a formidable fundraiser who has gotten out of tough scrapes before. Comstock raised $423,000 from April to June, and she had $722,000 in the bank.
● WV-01: Democrat Ralph Baxter, the former head of national law firm Orrick, filed with the FEC at the end of August, and he will reportedly announce he's challenging GOP Rep. David McKinley on Tuesday. Democrats held this northern West Virginia seat for decades until the 2010 GOP wave, but at 68-26 Trump, it's going to very tough to take it back.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now?: When we last heard from ex-Orange County Rep. Loretta Sanchez in January, the former 13-term congresswoman had just lost a race for the California Democratic Party's Central Committee months after she lost the U.S. Senate race to fellow Democrat Kamala Harris 62-38. But things may be looking up for Sanchez, who has been named as an executive producer for the show "Accidental Candidate." The program, which recently got a script commitment from NBC, will be about a small-town mother who decides to run for Congress as "the ultimate outsider against a powerful male incumbent," and the protagonist seems to be based in part on Sanchez.
