The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● MI-Gov: On Tuesday, Republican state Attorney General Bill Schuette kicked off his long-awaited gubernatorial campaign to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Rick Snyder. Schuette has served as attorney general since winning office in 2010. His lengthy career in public office includes serving on the state Court of Appeals from 2002 to 2008, the Michigan state Senate from 1994 to 2002, GOP Gov. John Engler's agriculture director from 1991 to 1994, and even the U.S. House representing the Midland area from way back in 1984 through 1990, when he badly lost a Senate campaign against Democratic incumbent Carl Levin.
Campaign Action
Schuette has appeared to have been plotting to run for governor next year ever since he became attorney general. He has already been raising funds that he can transfer to a gubernatorial committee, having brought in nearly $2 million this cycle and finishing the month of July with $1.55 million in cash-on-hand. A strident social conservative, he has been burnishing his credentials with the Republican base by fighting the Obama administration at every turn.
This record includes legal action to block same-sex marriage, thwart a requirement that transgender public school students can use restrooms of their gender identity, support Arizona's racial profiling immigration law, undermine Obamacare, and decimate organized labor. While Schuette's record as an arch-conservative should help endear him to Republican primary voters, it could bring him trouble in a general election in a historically Democratic-leaning swing state where the outgoing Republican governor has been unpopular for years.
Schuette's entry into the race sets up a likely primary with Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, but Calley has also played coy about his gubernatorial intentions for most of the year while he continues to raise funds for his lieutenant governor campaign, which he can also transfer over if he decides to seek a promotion. Calley stated on Monday that he won't announce his campaign in the immediate future, but will instead hold a listening tour in October and November. Hard-right state Sen Patrick Colbeck and wealthy physician Jim Hines have already been running for governor for months, but Schuette instantly becomes the primary front-runner compared to those relatively little-known rivals.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Appointed Sen. Luther Strange's latest ad ahead of the Sept. 26 special election Republican primary runoff once again hits familiar themes about how the incumbent is a Christian conservative who is fighting to pass Donald Trump's agenda in the Senate. Strange throws out his usual buzzwords bemoaning the "liberal media," calling to "drain the swamp" in Washington, and advocating for term limits. He closes by once again highlighting his backing from the NRA and National Right to Life, while also touting his endorsement from Trump himself.
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: Former state party vice chair Dita Bhargava is the latest Democrat to dip her toes into the gubernatorial waters, kicking off the "exploratory" phase of her campaign on Tuesday (thanks to Connecticut campaign public finance laws, candidates often stay in exploratory mode long before "officially" declaring). Bhargava ran for state House in 2016, but lost 60-40 against an incumbent Republican in an ultra-affluent and historically GOP Greenwich seat that lurched from 56-43 Romney to 56-40 Clinton.
In a highly polished announcement video, Bhargava introduced her biography and hit major progressive policy themes while promising to fight for a future where women can succeed and diversity is an asset. She also took square aim at the problems with the state budget and recent history of major businesses leaving the state, with The CT Mirror describing the former Wall Street senior trader as relatively pro-business, (although they also note Bhargava campaigned on paid sick leave.) Those soft attacks indirectly throw shade at Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy, who isn't seeking a third term next year amid an abysmally low approval rating and could prove to be a major liability for those seeking to maintain Democrats' hold on the governor's office.
Bhargava joins a primary that is already teeming with fellow Democratic contenders, though none have the high profile of an immediate front-runner. Middletown Mayor Dan Drew is already an official candidate, while former West Hartford Mayor Jonathan Harris, former federal prosecutor Chris Mattei, and Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim have all launched exploratory committees.
● NV-Gov: Democratic state Senate Majority Leader Aaron Ford had seemed for quite some time to be strongly leaning toward running for Nevada attorney general next year, but he previously hadn't closed the door on running for governor to succeed term-limited GOP incumbent Brian Sandoval. Unsurprisingly, he finally confirmed on Tuesday that he will indeed run for attorney general, taking that unlikely gubernatorial bid fully off the table. Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak is thus far the only prominent Democrat to have officially joined the race for governor, although a few others are still considering it.
House
● CA-49: Butthurt politicians threaten their opponents with defamation lawsuits from time to time in the U.S., but few are dumb enough to actually follow through—except for the likes of Darrell Issa. The ultra-wealthy Republican congressman barely survived a challenge last year from Marine veteran Doug Applegate, who got under Issa's skin with a TV ad arguing (quite accurately) that Issa had used his many years in office to make himself even richer.
Issa prepared a legal complaint about the ad during the peak of the 2016 campaign, but bizarrely, he waited to file it until the day before the election. He should have waited forever. Earlier this year, a state court judge dismissed the case, finding that Applegate had said nothing inaccurate, and he further ruled that Issa had violated a California law against lawsuits designed to intimidate the exercise of free speech (known as an "anti-SLAPP" law.)
That latter ruling allowed Applegate to recover his attorneys' fees from Issa (something not usually awarded in American legal proceedings), and now the judge has ordered Issa to pay Applegate and his campaign $45,000. Given the very high bar that U.S. defamation law poses to plaintiffs—public figures like Issa must demonstrate that defendants acted with "actual malice"—it was absurd for Issa to pursue this claim in the first place. But now he's also done his 2018 opponents a solid, too, because if they run ads substantially similar to Applegate's old spot, there's not a word Issa can say.
And indeed, that opponent could once again be Applegate, a newcomer who surprised the political world last year by pushing the previously invulnerable Issa to the brink. Soon after his narrow half-point loss, Applegate declared he'd seek a rematch, but Issa's softness has also drawn a couple of other Democrats into the race, environmental attorney Mike Levin and real estate investor Paul Kerr. And not only did Issa show weakness, but the broader Republican brand took a hit in this suburb San Diego district in 2016, as California's 49th District flipped from supporting Mitt Romney by a 52-46 margin to backing Hillary Clinton 51-43. That means it'll be in play once again next year, albeit with a slightly poorer but definitely no wiser Issa still on the hot seat.
● MI-11: Following his surprise retirement on Monday after just two terms in office, the field to replace Republican Rep. Dave Trott continues to take shape in Michigan's 11th District, which loops around to contain some of the Detroit metro area's most upscale northwestern suburbs. Wannabe Santa Claus and former Republican Rep. Kerry Bentivolio acknowledged that he's considering another go of things, but if you look up the term "accidental congressman" in your political lexicon, there's probably a picture of Bentivolio complete in Christmas regalia.
The high school teacher, reindeer rancher, and Santa Claus-for-hire was waging a GOP primary challenge as a Ron Paulist gadfly against then-Rep. Thad McCotter when the incumbent failed to qualify for the ballot after aborting his quixotic presidential campaign. That left Bentivolio as the only Republican on the primary ballot in 2012, and he overcame a write-in campaign from an establishment GOP candidate to win the nomination. Bentivolio then went on to win the general election in this heavily gerrymandered district after Democrats were caught unprepared, but he promptly lost the 2014 primary by a 66-34 landslide to the establishment-backed Trott, who had previously been a foreclosure attorney and heavily self-funded his campaign.
Bentivolio ran as an independent in 2016 and won 4 percent of the vote, which could help cost the GOP this seat if he were to repeat that effort in 2018, but he could simply end up just running as a Republican again without an incumbent to face. However, Bentivolio almost certainly won't have a clear path to the nomination if he runs. The Detroit News reports that state Sen. Mike Kowall is the latest Republican to express interest in running, saying that he'll make an announcement "in the coming days" about whether he'll stick with his campaign for secretary of state or switch to the 11th District. The News also relays that Troy City Councilman Ethan Baker, who was once an aide to Ronald Reagan and Nancy Reagan, indicated he's thinking about it, but there's no direct quote.
On the Democratic side, physician Anil Kumar tweeted late on Monday that he is considering another campaign. Kumar was the 2016 Democratic nominee and narrowly lost the 2014 primary. Although he raised little money both times, Kumar self-funded a significant $760,000 in 2016 and $831,000 in 2014. Kumar held Trott to a surprisingly modest 53-40 win despite receiving no outside support from national Democrats, and his wealth could consequently make him a serious contender if he runs a third time without having to face an incumbent.
This seat backed Trump just 50-45, making it the only Michigan district that swung Democratic last year after it had previously supported Mitt Romney 52-47, and it should be highly competitive in next year's general election.
● PA-08: Unlike his brethren in all other GOP-held congressional districts containing parts of the Philadelphia suburbs, Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has so far been on cruise control in his bid for a second term, with no notable Democrats making any noise about challenging him in his Bucks County-based 8th District. However, he may end up having to worry about his right flank after former Bucks County prosecutor Dean Malik formed an exploratory committee to challenge the incumbent in the GOP primary. Malik says he's still considering the race and will likely decide "in the next couple of months."
Malik had previously run for this seat in the 2010 and 2016 cycles, the last two times there was no GOP incumbent on the ballot, but dropped out before the primary each time. Fitzpatrick has so far worked to cultivate a moderate image in this swing seat, where Donald Trump's 48.2-48.0 win and Mitt Romney's 49.4-49.3 edge gave it the slimmest margin of victory for the GOP presidential nominee of any seat in the country in both 2016 and 2012.
Beating an incumbent with steadfast establishment support won't be an easy task, but Fitzpatrick's effort to portray himself as a moderate could risk angering the GOP base after he voted against Trumpcare in the House and opposed Trump during last year's general election, both of which Malik cited as his main reasons for potentially running. If Malik does end up pulling off the upset and winning the primary in this suburban swing seat, Democrats could be major beneficiaries, but they'll first have to land a credible candidate.
● PA-11: Former federal prosecutor Joe Peters had reportedly been considering running to succeed Republican Rep. Lou Barletta in the open 11th District, and he has now acknowledged publicly that he is indeed thinking about running in the Republican primary here. Peters previously served as communications director for Democratic state Attorney General Kathleen Kane, who later declined to run for a second term in 2016 amid scandal (and was ultimately sentenced to 10-to-23 months in prison).
Peters previously lost the 2004 general election for state Auditor by 52-45, and he ran to succeed Kane as attorney general in 2016, but lost the GOP primary by 64-36 last year. However, he won the Wyoming Valley region in northeastern Pennsylvania by a landslide in that primary and likely won the territory covering the 11th District, which contains a large chunk of the Wyoming Valley and parts of the Harrisburg region. This seat favored Trump by a punishing 60-36 and should remain solidly in Republican hands.
● TX-32: Lillian Salerno, who served as an official in the U.S. Department of Agriculture under President Obama, is the latest Democrat to seek the nomination to take on Republican Rep. Pete Sessions next year after she announced her candidacy on Tuesday. Salerno doesn't appear to have run for office herself before, but The Dallas Morning News describes her as someone who has had "a long career" in politics and was born and raised in Dallas, where this seat is located. Salerno also has experience as a businesswoman whose company developed health care equipment.
Salerno joins a Democratic primary that includes former Hillary Clinton staffer Ed Meier and civil rights attorney Colin Allred, who is also a former NFL player. Sessions hasn't faced a close general election in well over a decade, but Democrats are eager to put the 32nd District into play after this highly educated and diversifying suburban north Dallas seat swung hard from 57-41 Romney to 49-47 Clinton.
● WI-08: Brown County prosecutor Beau Liegeois announced on Monday that he will seek the Democratic nomination to challenge first-term Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher in the 8th District, which includes Green Bay and northeastern Wisconsin. Liegeois also serves as a military lawyer in the Wisconsin Army National Guard, but he hasn't run for office before.
Despite a history as a relatively swingy Republican-leaning district, the 8th swerved rightward in 2016 from 51-48 Romney to a bruising 56-39 Trump. Gallagher won what was then an open seat in 2016 by a 63-37 landslide against a touted Democratic elected official, outrunning both Trump and even GOP Sen. Ron Johnson's 59-38 re-election victory in the 8th. Democrats previously held the predecessor version of this seat from 2006 to 2010, but its demographics could make it a prohibitively tough target in an era where Trump has helped the GOP make inroads with working-class white voters.
Mayoral
● Seattle, WA Mayor: On Tuesday, Seattle Mayor Ed Murray resigned hours after a younger cousin named Joseph Dyer submitted a declaration accusing the mayor of sexually abusing him in the 1970s, when Dyer was 13. Murray denied the accusations in his resignation letter, arguing that his "personal issues" should not affect the city government. City Council President Bruce Harrell, who lost the 2013 race and chose not to run this year, will become interim mayor. Harrell will have five days to decide if he'll continue on as mayor for the remaining few months of Murray's term, or if the city council will select another member.
Murray, a Democrat, looked like he'd have an easy time winning re-election this fall at the beginning of the year. However, a lawsuit was filed alleging that Murray had sexually abused a person in the 1980s who was a minor at the time; several other claimants stepped forward with similar allegations, though they didn't file suit. Murray announced shortly before the filing deadline that he would not seek a second term, while denying the claims. Not long after Murray dropped out, the plaintiff withdrew the lawsuit. Murray considered launching a write-in campaign to stay in office, but he instead endorsed ex-U.S. Attorney Jenny Durkan's bid to succeed him.
This November's nonpartisan race pits Durkan against urban planner Cary Moon. Durkan called for Murray to resign just before he did, while Moon has called for him to quit since May.
