New Orleans' Oct. 14 jungle primary to replace termed-out Mayor Mitch Landrieu is less than a month away, and a new poll indicates that it's an extremely tight three-way race to get to the November general election. Market Research Insight, once again polling on behalf of a group of business people (including John Georges, the owner of the local paper The Advocate), just barely puts City Councilwoman LaToya Cantrell in the lead with 27 percent of the vote, while two former judges, Michael Bagneris and Desiree Charbonnet, take 26 and 25 percent, respectively. Businessman Troy Henry, who badly lost to Landrieu in 2010, is a distant fourth with just 4 percent. Like Landrieu and most of the city's voters, all four candidates are Democrats.
Last month, MRI found Charbonnet leading Cantrell 25-23 with Bagneris at 19, so Bagneris may be gaining ground as the campaign marches on. Bagneris challenged Landrieu for re-election in 2014, and lost 64-33, making us quite skeptical that his second bid would go much better, and indeed, his fundraising was pretty meh until recently. However, Bagneris brought in $260,000 from early July through mid-September, a much stronger total than his previous hauls, and he has $103,000 on-hand.
Bagneris seems to be benefiting, at least financially, from a recent controversy over New Orleans' old Confederate monuments. In the spring, the Landrieu administration removed several statues commemorating Confederate leaders and a separate monument to Reconstruction-era violence, and Landrieu himself gave a widely praised speech celebrating their departure. But Bagneris, who like all the major candidates is black, has spoken out against his old rival's actions, arguing that Landrieu's move "divides the races" and saying there should have been a citywide vote before the monuments were removed. By contrast, Cantrell was one of the city councilors who voted for the statues’ removal in 2015, while Charbonnet has said the city should move on from the controversy.
Bagneris' stance on the monument issue seems to have helped him make inroads with some influential local business people. Last month, businessman Frank Stewart, who published newspaper ads denouncing Landrieu over the monuments, hosted a breakfast for Bagneris; in attendance were, as The Advocate's Tyler Bridges puts it, "some three dozen friends and associates capable of writing big campaign checks." Stewart, who had been a longtime supporter of the Landrieu family, claims his decision had "no relationship whatsoever" to Bagneris' position on the Confederate monuments, but he almost immediately contradicted himself: In the very same interview with the Times-Picayune, Stewart says Bagneris had told him "that if he were mayor, he would've had a referendum. That's why I'm backing him."
But despite Bagneris’ new stable of rich donors, Charbonnet still is very much the leader in the money race. Charbonnet hails from a well-connected family, and she's close to plenty of political insiders, allowing her to quickly amass a large war chest when she resigned from the bench to prepare her mayoral bid. Over the last two months, she’s raised another $352,000, leaving her with $507,000 in the bank as of Sept. 4. (In a quirk, Bagneris' fundraising report runs through Sept. 13 while everyone else's' ends on Sept. 4.) Cantrell, by contrast, has struggled financially in comparison to her two main rivals: From July 7 to Sept. 4, she raised $141,000 and has $126,000 on-hand.
MRI also released polls of the three likely runoff pairings. They have Cantrell leading Charbonnet just 41-40, and outpacing Bagneris 44-38. However, Charbonnet laps Bagneris 50-26, which MRI suggests is a sign that the two could be drawing from the same group of voters.
Charbonnet's campaign responded to the MRI survey showing a tight race by dropping an internal poll from a local firm called BDPC that gives her a much more comfortable lead: Charbonnet still takes the same 27 percent, but Cantrell is well behind, edging Bagneris 17-14 for second. It’s not surprising to see Charbonnet out in front, since she’s been decisively outspending her foes during the campaign: Over the last two months, she’s spent $507,000 to Bagneris' $337,000 (though again, Bagneris' report covers an extra nine days), while Cantrell deployed $194,000. And with her sizable bank account, Charbonnet will likely maintain her spending advantage over the last month, but even her own poll shows that this race is far from decided.
However, the main field of contenders does appear to be set, since at this late date, it looks unlikely that any other candidates will be able to surge ahead. Henry, who entered the race just before the July filing deadline, brought in just $26,000 over the last two months, and he has very little left over. Businessman Frank Scurlock, the only white candidate with any money, had been doing some self-funding, but in a sign that he lacks confidence in himself, he recently clawed back $270,000 for what he says is a business deal. And finally there’s Tommie Vassel, an accountant who used to serve on the city Sewerage & Water Board. He’s raised very little cash from donors, though his company loaned him $150,000. Still, this trio isn’t going anywhere.
For his part, Landrieu has not taken sides. However, a PAC allied with the outgoing mayor recently interviewed Charbonnet and Cantrell as a prelude to a possible endorsement; Bagneris, unsurprisingly, was not invited. While Cantrell won a spot on the city council in 2012 by beating a Landrieu-backed candidate, she's since praised his legacy on the campaign trail; Charbonnet, by contrast, has been quieter about her views on the mayor. In terms of major players, there’s also Rep. Cedric Richmond, who represents most of the city in Congress. He hasn’t publicly endorsed anyone yet, though it's no secret that he favors Charbonnet.
The city’s high crime rate—always a perennial topic in New Orleans elections—remains the dominant focus of the campaign. However, a new issue was unexpectedly injected into the race in late July, when a strong thunderstorm led to heavy flooding. While city officials originally insisted that all pumps were working properly, residents soon learned how dire the condition of the city's drainage system really is. It’s not clear how this issue will play out at the ballot box, but while all the candidates have bemoaned the present state of affairs, they’ve struggled so far to offer a clear plan to fix things.
