Irma struck Cuba late last night as a Category 5 hurricane and crawled along its north coast, causing significant devastation. But now it’s re-emerged back over the water and is already showing signs of re-intensification.
At 2pm Eastern:
...IRMA LINGERING OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
DAYBREAK...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
Hurricane-force gusts have been reported in some outer bands crossing Miami-Dade, and power outages are already beginning.
Now that Irma is within range of the Key West radar position fixes will happen every hour. In addition recon is back on the way---they can’t do it over land (dropsondes are fine to drop in the ocean, not so much on land). I expect recon to find a strengthening hurricane. I also expect Key West’s radar to fail at some point tonight, and best of luck to the staff at NWS Key West, who are hunkering down in their bunker of a building right now. The turn is beginning to happen now.
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017
The interaction of Irma's circulation with Cuba has resulted in
some weakening of the hurricane. Data from an Air Force plane
indicate that the maximum winds are now 110 kt. However, once the
circulation moves away from Cuba, restrengthening is forecast and
Irma is expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane for the next 2
days while moving very near the Florida peninsula.
The eye has been moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 8
kt. The hurricane is about the reach the southwestern portion of
the subtropical high, and the expected turn to the northwest and
north-northwest should begin soon. The track guidance is tightly
packed and takes the hurricane over the Florida Keys and near or
over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC forecast is in the middle of
the guidance envelope and given the good agreement among models, the
confidence in the track forecast is high.
Irma is now under the scope of Key West radar, so hourly updates
will begin at 1600 UTC.
Yes, Irma’s track shifted (this actually began late Thursday) and instead of Miami’s catastrophic blow, it looks like Naples and possibly the Tampa Bay area.
updates as they come in.
Saturday, Sep 9, 2017 · 7:32:18 PM +00:00
·
terrypinder
Speaking of Traffic I see some traffic heading inland from Tampa on I-4 and I-75. If you’re in South Florida, it’s too late if you want to leave. There’s still some time if you’re in Tampa.
I-16 in Georgia is contraflowed from Savannah inland now.
Saturday, Sep 9, 2017 · 7:40:02 PM +00:00
·
terrypinder
Jose’s worst conditions appear to have missed the Leewards
Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017
...EYE OF HURRICANE JOSE PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 61.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has changed the Hurricane Warning to
a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
The government of Sint Maarten has changed the Hurricane Warning to
a Tropical Storm Warning.
The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.
Saturday, Sep 9, 2017 · 7:41:56 PM +00:00
·
terrypinder
I’m still trying to track down references for the number of people who chose to stay behind in the Florida Keys but it appears to be more than a few.
In Key West the highest point on the island is, ironically, the cemetery.
Saturday, Sep 9, 2017 · 9:11:42 PM +00:00
·
terrypinder
5PM Update
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017
...EYE OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA
WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
DAYBREAK...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 80.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
Note that the central pressure has dropped. It will be some time before the winds catch up, but I expect they will.
Saturday, Sep 9, 2017 · 9:19:57 PM +00:00
·
terrypinder
This will probably be the worst storm in the Keys since Betsy, probably Donna, and may rival the 1935 Labor Day storm. I think the eye will go between Key West and Marathon but it is a very large windfield at this point.
Saturday, Sep 9, 2017 · 9:29:34 PM +00:00
·
terrypinder
Seeing people share Jose model runs on social media and tearing out what's left of my hair.
I love that I live in an era where this information is so readily available, but most people don’t know what they’re looking at and they’re just sharing stuff. Anyway, no, Jose is not going to New York City on September 19th.
It is going to linger in the Atlantic for some days after it passes the Leewards tonight and tomorrow. Where it goes after that is not known.