Well we’ve turned the page to 2018 and with it, it’s time to look at the political landscape entering this year. Simply put, 2018 is pivotal to the balance of power across the United States. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for election, as will 34 of the 100 seats (at the current moment) in the United States Senate, 36 of the 50 governorships, and seats in 87 of the 99 state legislative chambers. There will also be countless ballot initiatives and mayoral races that will affect policy nationwide. The potential exists for November 6, 2018 to be the effective end of President Trump’s term, both with legislation and the judiciary. So the stakes are very high.
So what is the outlook? This piece will assert that, using all current empirical evidence available, a wave is brewing off the political coasts, one that could range from a sizable storm to a catastrophic tsunami. Regardless of the size, the nature of the wave is going to have the political winds strongly blowing at the backs of the Democrats, indicative of an extremely hostile environment to Republicans.
But before we can get deeper into the implications, it’s first essential to examine said evidence:
The Generic Congressional Ballot
The most important poll of all to watch when gauging the political environment is the GCB. It is simple, as it plainly asks voters which party they plan to vote for in the upcoming election. Yet the evidence it provides is invaluable. You can read more about it here and here, but I’ll boil down the main facts about it. For one, it’s a pretty accurate poll historically. In the last 8 elections that the poll has been around (2016-2002), the average error between the national house popular vote and the final average of the RealClearPolitics aggregate of the GCB is 2.48 points, with a median of 2.6 points.
So the GCB is pretty closely correlated with the final national house popular vote. Which then makes us ask the important question, what is the GCB currently showing? The FiveThirtyEight tracker ended the year with Democrats leading 49.9% to 37%, or D+12.9. The RealClearPolitics aggregator has Democrats leading 49.1% to 36.3%, or D+12.8. The average of the last 6 live interviewer/gold standard polls has Democrats leading 51.66% to 37.83%, or D+13.8:
Most Recent Live-Interviewer GCB Polls
Pollster |
dates |
D |
R |
Margin |
CNN |
12/14-12/17 |
56 |
38 |
D+18 |
Marist |
12/4-12/7 |
50 |
37 |
D+13 |
Monmouth
|
12/10-12/12 |
51 |
36 |
D+15 |
NBC/wsj |
12/13-12/15 |
50 |
39 |
D+11 |
PPP |
12/11-12/12 |
51 |
40 |
D+11 |
Quinnipiac |
12/13-12/18 |
52 |
37 |
D+15 |
Put simply, those margins should horrify Republicans. If Democrats enter Election Day 2018 with a similar 13/14 point GCB lead, they will be extremely heavy favorites to capture the majority in the House of Representatives. Factors like geographic distribution, partisan gerrymandering, and incumbency help the Republicans in their quest to hold the House. They can survive up to around a 7 or so point popular vote loss. They cannot survive a 14 point loss. Or a 10 point loss (if the error went in their favor). Or a 17 point loss (if the error went against them). Republicans must have the results of this poll change in the next 10 months or else Election Day 2018 will be a bloodbath. The bad news for GOPers? It rarely changes substantially over 10 months, and if it does, it normally moves against the ruling party. Verdict: GCB points to a blue tsunami
Special Election Results
But, you say that polls are polls and results are all that matters? Well, let’s see what the evidence from results in 2017 says. Over 70 special elections were conducted after the 2016 elections and the results were tracked and compared to the presidential level leans by our good folks at Daily Kos Elections in this spreadsheet. Democrats have overperformed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margins by an average of 10 points, and Barack Obama’s 2012 margins by an average of 7 points. That’s indicative of a double digit Democratic lead in the GCB. The results were across the board too, with Democrats doing well in Michigan, New Hampshire, Iowa, Oklahoma, Kansas, Montana, Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, South Carolina, and New York. Name a state where there was a special election either legislatively or congressionally in 2017, and Democrats likely overperformed. But, but you say that these were low turnout, so the results don’t matter? The problem with that argument is that it evidence that arguably adds to the Democrats’ case. Midterm elections are all about turning out voters. Democrats struggled with that big time in 2010 and 2014 and it foreshadowed a pending red wave. Now it’s the Republicans are struggling. Who wins low turnout elections is indicative of which party is more excited to vote and will likely have the turnout advantage in the Midterms. And right now it’s Democrats who are winning. You can read more about these points on special elections here and here. Verdict: Special election results point to a pretty large sized blue wave
The Enthusiasm Edge
Speaking of who’s excited to vote, it REALLY matters in Midterms. And we have ways to track that. While the special elections are indicative of that, there are also polls as well. In the recent CNN poll, 49% of Democrats said they were excited to vote, while only 32% of Republicans did. You can find other numbers of that sort, but quite simply, Democrats are more excited to vote than Republicans are. And you can find supporting evidence from Virginia and Alabama. In the Virginia gubernatorial election, turnout in Democratic counties (like NoVA) was much higher than in the Republican counties (like SW VA). And in Alabama, turnout in the black belt counties (e.g. Democratic counties) was around 75% of what it was in 2016, while the very red counties were about 55-60% of what 2016 was. These facts are very bad news for Republicans, plain and simple. Verdict: enthusiasm edge points to a blue wave
The Other Results from 2017
Outside of the special election results, there are the normally scheduled election results in Virginia and in New Jersey. And the numbers were pretty darn good for the Democrats. They gained seats in both chambers of the New Jersey legislature and easily won the governor’s race. And in Virginia, Democrats gained at least 15 seats in the House of Delegates and swept the statewide elections for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General. While statewide races can be tough to gauge due to circumstances sometimes, the brutal facts of the state legislative races point to very good things for the Democrats. As was said before hand, 0-5 seat pickup was great for Republicans, 5-10 seat pickup was good for Democrats, 10-15 seat pickup was very good for Democrats, and 15+ was a harbinger of blue tsunami. They picked up at least 15, tied another, and had weird legal stuff going on in #17. Verdict: other results from 2017 point to a blue tsunami
Retirements and Recruitments
Who is retiring from seats and who is being recruited to run for seats is generally a good indication of the type of political environment we are dealing with. In the US Senate, Republicans have managed to field good candidates in some of the races that are considered to be high priority, like West Virginia, Missouri, and Indiana. But they have also had some baffling whiffs, like in Wisconsin and Montana. Meanwhile Democrats managed to convince all of their vulnerable incumbents to seek reelection (which probably wouldn’t have happened if Clinton was President) and have fielded top notch recruits in the key pickup opportunities of Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee. In the US House, Republicans have seen some of their key incumbents run for the exits, opening up vulnerable swing seats, such as WA-08, PA-15, MI-11, FL-27, and NJ-02. Democrats’ only key retirements have come in places where their incumbents are running for higher office, and they are recruiting very well, with many candidates lining up in the key districts, but also A-list candidates in tougher seats, like KY-06, KS-02, and NY-21. All of these factors are very typical when looking at past waves like 2006, 2010, and 2014. Verdict: the retirements and recruitments point to a blue wave
Fundraising
The ability for one party to fundraise more easily than the other is another key indicator of enthusiasm. On one hand you can look at DNC vs. RNC fundraising numbers and, like dozens of not-very-intelligent political reporters, conclude that Democratic fundraising is in a catastrophic crisis. Or you can look at GA-06’s special election, where Democrats knocked the doors off the hinges, or at Virginia where Ed Gillespie got crushed by Ralph Northam in fundraising, or at Alabama where Doug Jones crushed Roy Moore in fundraising, or at the Q3 House fundraising report, where Democrats slaughtered Republicans in fundraising. I choose to look at the one with a lot more data points. Additionally, the DCCC and the DSCC have been out fundraising the RSCC and the RCCC. It’s pretty clear Democrats have a significant fundraising edge, and the DNC numbers lag because everyone hates the DNC and because it doesn’t have the same defined purpose as a campaign or the DCCC/DSCC. Verdict: fundraising points to a blue wave
The Bottom Line
So there we have it. Of the six important factors, all six point to a blue wave. All six are flashing red, telling Republicans to sound the alarms. The environment that is present now is more than enough to sweep the Democrats into power nationwide. The question is, will it stay? As The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman notes in this piece, the Democrats’ biggest enemy is time. There are still 10 months until Election Day, 10 months for this environment to change. Now again, historically, the only changes that happen over a period of that duration tend to go against the ruling party, so there isn’t a lot of hope for Republicans. But they have to do everything they can to try and protect themselves.
But as for now, this is the way it stands. The current environment would yield 30+ Democratic pickups in the House of Representatives, somewhere between 1-3 Senate pickups, and probably 8-12 Gubernatorial pickups. That is the environment Republicans are staring down the barrel. They have to do everything they can to change that. Because if we enter Election Day and Democrats still have a 12-14 point GCB lead, you can say goodbye to a Republican congressional majority, probably in both chambers.
Bonus: Programming note
Thanks all for reading! This piece begins my New Year’s bonanza. Next in the series we will have updates to my Senate and Governor ratings (each will include more long-term looks than normal), my first House ratings, and my first State Legislature ratings. Adios!