The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● PA-07: On Thursday evening, GOP Rep. Pat Meehan announced he would not seek re-election in the wake of a sexual harassment scandal. It's a dramatic end for someone who had enjoyed a long and prominent career in local and national politics, but one that he very much brought upon himself.
Campaign Action
We'll start with a look at the battle for Meehan's House seat, where the GOP has quite the headache on their hands. The current version of Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, located in the Philadelphia suburbs, narrowly backed Mitt Romney in 2012 before flipping to narrowly back to Hillary Clinton in 2016, and it'll be tough for Republicans to defend as an open seat in what's shaping up to be a very difficult political environment.
But to complicate things further, the state Supreme Court struck down the state's Republican-drawn congressional map on Monday as an unlawful partisan gerrymander. And indeed, this inkblot of a district, likened to "Goofy kicking Donald Duck," is the most emblematic example of just how badly the GOP tortured the lines to produce the outcome they wanted. Unless Republicans succeed with their long-shot bid to convince the U.S. Supreme Court to keep the current map in place, whatever district replaces the current 7th is likely to be much more Democratic.
However, while we can make an educated guess, no one can say for sure what the new district will look like, nor how blue it will be. It's also not certain who will be crafting the new boundaries. The GOP-controlled legislature has until Feb. 15 to pass a new map, but Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf has pledged to veto anything he views as a gerrymander. If a stalemate comes to pass, the court will draw up its own seats. For now, we have what we've coined a Schrödinger's seat, where candidates are considering running for a district that may not—in this case, almost certainly will not—exist by Election Day.
And it's a particularly sticky situation for national Republicans, who still want to find a credible candidate rather than just cede a seat. An unnamed local GOP operative told Roll Call's Bridget Bowman that the party wants to recruit "a woman with a prosecutorial background," though this source didn't offer up any names that might match the description of this unicorn candidate. A different Republican name-dropped state Sen. Tom McGarrigle, former Delaware County Council Chairman Mario Civera, and state Reps. Alex Charlton and Nick Miccarelli as potential candidates, but there's no word on how interested any of them are.
Meanwhile, a few Democrats had been running before Meehan's collapse, but others may now be interested. Indeed, state Rep. Greg Vitali filed with the FEC on Friday, though he has not said anything publicly. Vitali has been in the legislature since 1993, but he doesn't seem to have a good relationship with the party leadership. Last year, Vitali said he very much wanted to be the top Democrat on the House Environmental Resources and Energy Committee, which he called "my focus since I came up here." State House Minority Leader Frank Dermody, however, picked someone else, and while Dermody's team said they just felt Vitali would be a bigger asset on a different committee, Vitali insisted he may have paid a price for "being outspoken."
Given the uncertainty over redistricting, we wouldn't be surprised if the field evolved somewhat slowly, but we're certainly surprised to find ourselves here. Just a few weeks ago, the GOP would have welcomed someone as prominent as Meehan running in a challenging race to keep a swingy seat like this one red. Meehan was the district attorney for populous Delaware County before George W. Bush chose him to serve as the U.S. attorney for the Philadelphia area in 2001. With his prosecutorial background, Meehan ultimately sought a promotion to the governorship, and he spent much of 2009 in furtherance of that quest, though he had a tough time gaining traction against then-state Attorney General Tom Corbett, who ultimately won the GOP primary (and the general election).
The GOP was therefore delighted when Meehan did an about-face and announced he would run for an open House seat in Delaware County that the Republicans had lost in the 2006 wave, and he won the general election 55-44. Republicans then radically redrew the seat the next cycle, and Meehan decisively won re-election three times against little-known Democrats. Indeed, on the strength of his electoral track record, Republicans wanted Meehan to challenge Democratic Sen. Bob Casey this year, but he passed and said he'd seek re-election.
Despite being gerrymandered halfway unto death, the demographics of the well-educated suburban 7th District still gave Democrats an opening against Meehan, but his strong war chest and moderate reputation made him a very tough opponent … that is, until everything changed when The New York Times reported that he had used thousands in taxpayer dollars to settle a misconduct complaint leveled against him by a former staffer. This staffer, whose name was withheld by the paper, said that the congressman created a hostile work environment for her when he became romantically interested in her and "jealous" when he found out she was dating someone else.
Meehan's painfully clueless attempts at damage control made things even worse for him, especially when he said he believed the aide was his "soul mate." But while he was initially defiant and said he planned to seek a fifth term, party insiders managed to pressure the guy who had looked like one of their strongest incumbents just days earlier into getting lost. Meehan finally got the message, but not without one more icky moment.
In his retirement letter, the congressman insisted that to him, the term "soul mate" had no romantic connotation and was instead "a uniquely close person who is joined with you on a daily basis, in which you both share the routine successes and strains of a work day." He further denied any feelings of jealousy, while throwing in the ultimate passive-aggressive jab, writing that when he found out his former aide "was planning to move abroad and marry someone she had only known for a short while, I knew it would mean the termination of the long professional relationship we shared." If only he would be the one to move abroad. In any case, good riddance.
4Q Fundraising
Click here for our chart rounding up all Senate fundraising numbers. As per usual, we'll have a chart of House numbers after the reporting deadline, which is Jan. 31.
● CA-Sen: Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): $1 million raised, additional $5 million self-funded, $9.8 million cash-on-hand
● IN-Sen: Joe Donnelly (D-inc): $1.2 million raised, $5.3 million cash-on-hand
● RI-Gov: Allan Fung (R): $175,000 raised
Senate
● MS-Sen: After Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley announced he wouldn't challenge GOP Sen. Roger Wicker, attention immediately turned to state House Minority Leader David Baria. The National Journal's Kimberly Railey writes that national Democrats are courting Baria for what would be a very tough race in a conservative state, and he says he'll decide by late February. The filing deadline is March 1.
Both parties are waiting to see if state Sen. Chris McDaniel will challenge Wicker in the June primary. While McDaniel would face an uphill battle against Wicker, a primary upset could give Democrats a shot at this seat, and they want a candidate in place if lightning strikes. But if Baria says no, it may be very tough for Team Blue to find a viable candidate. Railey writes that Democrats have mentioned former Gov. Ray Mabus (who went on to be Barack Obama's Navy secretary), state Rep. Jay Hughes, and Attorney General Jim Hood, but they're pessimistic any of them will run.
● WI-Sen: Restoration PAC, a group primarily funded by billionaire Richard Uihlein, is up with a new $200,000 TV buy for businessman and veteran Kevin Nicholson. This takes their total investment here to $1.5 million, and we have a long way to go before the August GOP primary. The new spot once again extols Nicholson as an outsider, businessman, and veteran. The narrator briefly addressed Nicholson's time as head of the College Democrats of America by declaring, "Like Reagan, a passionate convert to conservatism," and say he's the best suited to beat "ultra-liberal Tammy Baldwin." Nicholson faces state Sen. Leah Vukmir, whose allies have not yet aired any ads, but also has a billionaire in her corner.
Gubernatorial
● MA-Gov: After a year of half-heartedly flirting with a bid, former state Sen. Dan Wolf told the Boston Globe he wouldn't seek the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Gov. Charlie Baker.
● ME-Gov: Waterville Mayor Nick Isgro recently expressed interest in joining the GOP primary to succeed termed-out Republican Gov. Paul LePage (himself a former Waterville mayor), and he's scheduled a Monday news conference to talk about "critical issues and opportunities for Maine's future," where he's set to announce something.
● MN-Gov, MN-05: In a surprise, Attorney General Lori Swanson announced Sunday that she would run for re-election rather than seek the Democratic nomination for governor. Political observers widely expected her to run to succeed retiring Gov. Mark Dayton, and we'll discuss how her decision will affect the Democratic race in a future Digest.
Swanson's announcement came days after Politico reported on Friday that Democratic Rep. Keith Ellison was strongly considering leaving the House to run for attorney general after Swanson launched her presumptive gubernatorial bid. Ellison has reportedly been unhappy in the House and would rather be active in the legal fight against the Trump administration. However, there was no indication in the Politico article that Ellison was interested in challenging Swanson for re-election if it came down to it.
● OH-Gov: In the previous Digest, we wrote up a poll from Fallon Research of Ohio's gubernatorial race that showed Republican Mike DeWine with a shockingly large 49-28 lead on Democrat Richard Cordray. The survey was conducted for an organization that calls itself the "1984 Society" and holds itself out as nonpartisan: The Cleveland Plain Dealer described it as a nonprofit, bipartisan group of former Ohio Senate employees and senators who wanted good independent polling for the political community."
But the name, it turns out, isn't a reference to George Orwell's seminal novel. The University of Virginia's Kyle Kondik points out it's actually a reference to the year that the Ohio state Senate flipped to the GOP, making the group's claim to be nonpartisan appear somewhat, well, Orwellian. Just something to bear in mind when analyzing those doubleplusungood poll results
● PA-Gov: Democrat Tom Wolf began 2014 with little name recognition, but the wealthy businessman began advertising at the end of January and never stopped, and he ended up winning every single county in the primary less than four months later. The GOP primary to face now-Gov. Wolf isn't until May, and two Republicans have taken a page from his old strategy book and have begun airing TV ads early.
Businessman Paul Mango took to the airwaves in September, and the Philadelphia Inquirer's Andrew Seidman says he's spent $820,000 on TV since then. State Sen. Scott Wagner only began running spots in mid-December, but Seidman writes he's dropped $880,000 into commercials in just that short amount of time. So far, their ads have been mostly biographical: Mango stressed his time in the Army Rangers, while Wagner used his waste disposal business to argue he's ready to "put big government in the dumpster." House Speaker Mike Turzai and attorney Laura Ellsworth are also running.
● TN-Gov: Businessman Bill Lee, a former member of the state Higher Education Commission, is up with the first TV spot of the August GOP primary. Lee's minute long-ad features him talking about his wife's death from a horse riding accident, and how he decided afterward to do all he could to make life better for his employees. Lee then says he hopes to do the same for the people of Tennessee. Lee's campaign says the commercial will air the week of Jan. 27, though they did not reveal the size of the buy.
House
● AL-05: On Thursday, state Sen. Bill Holtzclaw announced he was ending his GOP primary bid against Rep. Mo Brooks. Holtzclaw had been running since late August, but he raised very little money by late September. Oh well, we'll always have the billboard to remember him by. Clayton Hinchman, a businessman and Iraq veteran, is also running, but he's also struggled with fundraising. This northern Alabama seat backed Trump 65-31, and while Brooks' 2017 Senate bid went badly, he looks like a safe bet to win re-election.
● CA-49: Air Force veteran and attorney Christina Prejean has announced she was joining the Democratic field for this competitive suburban San Diego seat. Prejean served in Afghanistan before going to law school (she was an extern for Judge Gonzalo Curiel, whom Donald Trump said was unqualified to preside over the Trump University lawsuits because he was of Mexican descent). As an attorney, Prejean has represented women veterans and service members who say they were sexually assaulted in the military. Prejean grew up in this area but currently lives outside the seat in the city of San Diego, though she says she plans to move to the 49th District.
On the GOP side, San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar confirmed she would run, and she unveiled endorsements from San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and Rep. Ed Royce. Gaspar unseated a scandal-tarred Democratic incumbent in an officially nonpartisan race 50.3-49.7 as Clinton was carrying her seat 57-37. That year, Gasper supported Trump in the state's primary (by which point he was already the presumptive GOP nominee), but after the Access Hollywood tape was released, she said she wouldn't back him anymore, declaring, "I have no reason to believe that he'll be presidential." This year, Gasper was chosen to chair the Board of Supervisors, a title that customarily rotates among the members.
Both sides have plenty of candidates in the June top-two primary to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Darrell Issa. On the Democratic side, Prejean faces Marine veteran Doug Applegate, who narrowly lost to Issa in 2016; environmental attorney Mike Levin; real estate investor Paul Kerr; and former Hillary Clinton presidential campaign policy adviser Sara Jacobs. On the GOP end, Gaspar is taking on Board of Equalization Chair Diane Harkey, who has Issa's support; Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, who is a notoriously weak fundraiser; and San Juan Capistrano City Councilman Brian Maryott, who has pledged to put $100,000 of his own money into his bid.
The two candidates with the most votes will advance to the general election regardless of party. With so many contenders on both sides, it's looking likely that one Democrat and one Republican will advance, but the top-two is an unpredictable system. This seat went from 52-46 Romney to 51-43 Clinton, and it's a top Democratic target.
● IL-10: Physician Sapan Shah, who is one of a few Republicans competing in the March 20 primary to take on Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider, is up with the first TV ad of the race. Shah tells the audience that his immigrant parents helped him achieve the American dream, and he will "Bring real world experience to Washington." This seat, which takes up Chicago's northern suburbs, has hosted a number of close and expensive battles in recent years, and Republicans have done well here down-ballot. However, the district moved from 58-41 Obama to 62-33 Clinton, and it's going to be very tough for the GOP to unseat Schneider in this political climate.
● IN-06: Businessman Greg Pence is out with his first TV ad ahead of the May GOP primary for this safely red seat, and he doesn't mention his famous little brother once. Instead, Pence talks about his time in the Marines and his business career.
● PA-18: Both parties' House committees are starting to reserve TV time ahead of the March 13 special for this 58-39 Trump seat. Politico reports that the NRCC has placed a $1 million buy that will start Monday and last until Election Day (though a GOP source tells Politico they’ll likely spend more), while the DCCC is starting a $236,000 buy for the next two weeks.
GOP outside groups have been airing ads here for the last few weeks to help GOP state Rep. Rick Saccone ward off former prosecutor Conor Lamb. The Congressional Leadership Fund, which is run by allies of Speaker Paul Ryan, has also started their $1.5 million ad campaign. Their first spot ties Lamb to House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, whom national Republicans are convinced will be toxic to Team Blue's candidates.
The animated commercial features a narrator arguing that Lamb would be one of Pelosi's sheep and would vote for her agenda. As some cute sheep pass by and baa, the narrator rattles off all usual stuff you'd expect that he says Lamb and Pelosi like: "Higher taxes. Wasteful spending. Job-crushing regulations. A weaker military." Expect a whole lot more GOP ads like this, complete with lame Lamb puns, in the next month-and-a-half.
● TX-29: EMILY's List has endorsed state Sen. Sylvia Garcia in the March 6 primary for this safely blue Houston seat. Garcia, who has the support of retiring Rep. Gene Green, represents most of this seat in the legislature already, and she's the only elected official running. But healthcare company CEO Tahir Javed, who hosted a 2016 fundraiser for Hillary Clinton, reported raising $253,000 in the first three weeks of the race, so it looks like he'll at least have the resources to get his name out.
● TX-32: EMILY's List has backed Lillian Salerno, a former U.S. Department of Agriculture official, in the March 6 Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Pete Sessions. This Dallas-area seat went from 57-42 Romney all the way to 48.5-46.6 Clinton, and for the first time in a long time, Sessions is a Democratic target. Former TV investigative reporter Brett Shipp likely has the most name-recognition at this point in the race, but it remains to be seen if he can run a serious campaign. Ed Meier, a former staffer for Hillary Clinton, had by far the most money of all the Democrats at the end of September, while NFL player turned civil rights attorney Colin Allred is also in. If no one takes a majority of the vote in March, there will be a May Democratic primary runoff.
