The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NC-09: Events in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District continue to unfold swiftly regarding Republican Mark Harris and the alleged electoral fraud carried out on behalf of his campaign. An important question mark at the center of the matter has at last been resolved, as the state’s Republican-led legislature passed a bill with veto-proof bipartisan support that will finally let Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper appoint majorities on the state and county elections boards after courts repeatedly struck down the GOP's efforts to stop him from doing so.
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The state board is currently investigating the fraud allegations, but in its current configuration, which had been ruled unconstitutional, it had been on borrowed time. Now, following the extension of a court order, the existing state board will remain in place until Dec. 28 or until it certifies the results in the 9th District, whichever comes first. Thanks to this new legislation, once the board is disbanded, it’ll be reconstituted under Cooper’s auspices, with Democrats in control. However, the current chair has asked that the court leave the existing board in place until they complete their investigation.
But whether the current board or its next iteration acts, Republicans appear increasingly resigned to the likelihood that it may void the fraud-tainted results in the 9th District and order a new election, which is why they included a provision in their new legislation that would also require a new primary if there's a do-over. Under existing law, the state board could only order a new general election with the same candidates because it certified the primary results long ago. (Harris allegedly benefited from similar fraud in his narrow primary win over incumbent Rep. Robert Pittenger, but despite complaints from Pittenger’s staff, the state GOP and NRCC reportedly sat on them.)
Harris' denials of knowledge of the election fraud scheme also grew less credible after a picture surfaced on Tuesday of him with McCrae Dowless, the operative who allegedly orchestrated the absentee ballot tampering, at a political event in Bladen County in March. Furthermore, former Charlotte City Council candidate Pete Givens has claimed Harris, who was his pastor, had introduced him to Dowless, contending that Harris had alluded to Dowless’ absentee ballot operations.
Undoubtedly, Republicans don't want to be saddled with Harris if a new election takes place, and Pittenger is an obvious contender for the GOP nomination. However, the congressman has refused to comment on whether he'd run, with a spokesperson saying he "is focused on the terrorism and security forums he has planned for 2019 and is excited about the future.”
Meanwhile, Republicans have signaled they want to restrict voting eligibility for a new election to those who were registered by the time of this year's regular election, thus barring newly registered voters and those who just turned 18 from participating. However, election law expert Gerry Cohen notes that federal law forbids registration deadlines more than 30 days ahead of any federal election, including primaries.
Senate
● OR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Sen. Jeff Merkley recently admitted that it's unlikely that the state legislature will change Oregon law to allow him to run for both president and for re-election in 2020, but that hardly means he will just need to choose just one office to seek this cycle. The deadline for him to file for re-election isn't until March 10 of 2020, and at least 13 states will hold presidential primaries or caucuses before then.
Merkley, who says he'll decide on a presidential bid by the end of this year, acknowledged that the results for this first batch of states "would give me a chance to decide on" whether or not to keep seeking the White House or to drop out and run for re-election.
Gubernatorial
● MS-Gov: On Tuesday, state Rep. Robert Foster announced that he was joining the 2019 GOP primary to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Phil Bryant. Foster, a freshman legislator from DeSoto County in the Memphis suburbs, pitched himself as a "conservative outsider." He may be best known for his social media outbursts: A day before Election Day, Foster tweeted, "Anyone who votes Dem. in 18 is either ignorant or evil."
Back in 2016, Foster was also one of six state house members photographed at a rally held by the Sons of Confederate Veterans and other groups that were urging Mississippi not to remove the Confederate battle emblem from its state flag. Foster, who was shown in front of an oversized Mississippi flag, claimed Monday that the dispute isn't "something I ever really talk about."
Foster joins Petal Mayor Hal Marx, who announced he was running for governor back in May with very little fanfare, in the GOP primary. The big name everyone's waiting on is Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, who says he'll likely announce his plans in the weeks leading up to the Jan. 8 legislative session. Mississippi politicos pretty much universally expect Reeves, who had $5.4 million in the bank at the end of 2017, to declare he's running.
However, it remains to be seen if any other notable Magnolia State Republicans jump into the August primary ahead of the March 1 filing deadline. The Clarion-Ledger recently listed a number of other potential candidates whom they all classified as considering, but there's little information about how interested all of them are.
Here's what we do know about the would-be contenders. Back in October, the paper wrote that some unnamed Republicans were looking to field a business leader, whom they argued could contrast well with Attorney General Jim Hood, the Democratic primary frontrunner. The names that came up the most were energy industry magnate Bill Lampton and billionaire Thomas Duff, whom Forbes recently listed as one of the richest people in the state.
We haven't heard anything else about either man's interest in running, or lack thereof. However, the paper's December list of potential candidates only names Duff, so it's possible that Lampton has quietly made it known that he's not interested.
This month, the Clarion-Ledger also classified businessman Gerard Gibert as another dude who was considering seeking the GOP nod. Gibert doesn't appear to have said much publicly about his interest, but last week, he tweeted that article out and said, "MS elex: Who's running for governor, other open seats in 2019 elections. Hmm…" Hmm … indeed.
The paper also lists state Supreme Court Chief Justice William Waller as considering. The Clarion-Ledger recently wrote that he's forbidden from declaring a party affiliation as a justice, and they don't classify him with one. Waller is the son of the late Gov. William Waller Sr., who served as a Democrat from 1972 to 1976 and appointed African-Americans to state administrative boards and commissions for the first time since Reconstruction.
Unlike many of his potential rivals, Waller actually has acknowledged he's thinking about jumping in. Back in November, when he announced that he would soon step down from the bench, Waller was asked about rumors that he would run for governor and responded, "I'm not closing any doors at this time," and "I will decide after I retire Jan. 31." The Clarion-Ledger also wrote this month that Waller "has long been considered a likely candidate."
House
● CA-15: Rep. Eric Swalwell is another one of the many Democrats who is considering seeking the White House in 2020, and he recently said he'd announce if he'll run for president after the holidays. Swalwell does not appear to have addressed if he'd retire from his safely blue Bay Area House seat if he ran for president, or if he would keep the possibility open that he'd seek a fifth term if a national campaign didn't go so well.
California will hold its 2020 presidential primary in March along with its top-two primary for congressional and state offices, and the deadline to file to appear on the ballot for any office is December of next year. That's two months before Iowa kicks off the presidential primary season with its Feb. 3 caucus, so Swalwell couldn't just wait to see how the early states voted before deciding whether or not to run for re-election.
However, it's possible that Swalwell wouldn't actually need to choose between his House seat and a presidential bid. Roll Call recently wrote that the Golden State's law "prohibiting most dual candidacies doesn't apply to presidential primaries," and that this law " technically only prohibits filing for two offices, not actually running for them." Because candidates for president and vice president don't have to file nomination papers, they concluded that Swalwell could probably run for re-election at the same time that he ran for president if he chose to.
● MA-06: Outgoing state Sen. Barbara L'Italien recently expressed interest in launching a Democratic primary challenge against Rep. Seth Moulton over his attempts to keep Nancy Pelosi out of the speaker's chair, and another local legislator may also be eyeing this race. State Rep. Lori Ehrlich told the Boston Globe that, while she was focusing on serving in the legislature, she was "curious" to see if Moulton runs again. She also made it clear she was not happy with the congressman's anti-Pelosi campaign, declaring, "Really, I think where it could hurt him the most would be the clout that he could lose in the House. For the sake of our district, I hope that's not the case."
Legislative
● Special Elections: Here's our recap of Tuesday's lone race:
TX-SD-06: Democratic state Rep. Carol Alvarado took 50.4 percent of the vote in this Eastern Houston district to narrowly avoid a runoff in the race to succeed Sylvia Garcia. In a low-turnout affair where a second round of voting had seemed likely, another Democratic legislator, fellow state Rep. Ana Hernandez, wound up a very distant second with just 23.4 percent. Martha Elena Fierro, the lone Republican on the ballot, finished third with 23.2 percent while businesswoman Mia Mundy, the third Democrat in the race, managed 2.1 percent. Overall, Democrats accounted for 75.9 percent of the vote to GOP's 23.2 percent in this strongly blue district.
Mayoral
● Houston, TX Mayor: Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner is up for re-election in November, and it looks likely that he'll face a familiar adversary in next year's officially nonpartisan race. Turner, a Democrat, narrowly beat former Kemah Mayor Bill King, a conservative businessman who identifies as an independent, by a 51-49 margin in the contest to lead America's fourth-largest city. On Thursday, King filed paperwork for a potential rematch and said he was "leaning heavily" toward trying again. He added that he would do some polling and that he would likely decide in the next 60 days.
King will have some company if he runs. Back in October, prominent attorney and Texas A&M Regent Tony Buzbee kicked off his own bid and pledged to self-fund up to $5 million. Buzbee, who defended then-GOP Gov. Rick Perry in an abuse-of-power case, refused to identify himself with any party and declared that partisan labels were "bullshit." However, while Buzbee unsuccessfully ran as a Democrat for the state House in 2002, he hosted a 2016 fundraiser at his mansion for Donald Trump.
Buzbee has pledged to "liven things up" for this race, and whatever else you can say about him, he's not a dull guy. Last year, his local homeowners association rebuked him for parking what the Texas Tribune called an "operational World War II-era tank" outside his home. We don't expect him to defer to King, either. Buzbee characterized the 2015 election at the time as "the most boring thing you've ever seen" and a contest among a "mediocre" field of candidates. In Houston, all the candidates run on one ballot, and if no one takes a majority, there would be a runoff in December.
While Democrats have controlled city hall for decades, Turner could be in for a tough campaign. The Houston Chronicle's Jasper Scherer writes that a dominant issue in the race will likely be compensation for local firefighters. The Houston Professional Fire Fighters Association backed Turner over King in 2015, but they've since butted heads many times. In 2017, Turner successfully pushed pension cuts through the GOP-led state government, arguing that they were necessary to solve the city's multi-billion pension shortfall.
The Fire Fighters Association soon sued Turner over that law, and they've continued to clash. In November, Turner opposed Proposition B, a ballot initiative that would grant equal pay to firefighters and police of corresponding status, arguing that it could bankrupt Houston and lead to major layoffs for firefighters and other city employees. Despite Turner's efforts, the measure passed with 59 percent of the vote. King supported Prop B, arguing that, while it should never have been on the ballot in the first place, a vote against the firefighters "would add insult to injury after what the city did to them in the pension deal and I fear would have a devastating effect on firefighter morale."
The issue continues to roil Houston politics. Last month, the Houston Police Officers' Union successfully convinced a judge to temporarily block Prop B from taking effect. The Fire Fighters Association soon accepted an offer from Buzbee to mediate the dispute between themselves and the city at no cost, though Turner is very unlikely to take his rival up on this. Like the Police Officers' Union, the city is currently arguing in court that Prop B is unconstitutional.
