In 2011, when the state’s new independent redistricting commission scrambled California’s congressional map, Democratic Rep. Jim Costa wound up representing close to 80 percent of the new 21st District. But while Costa should have been able to hold this seat with ease, he decided to instead run for the more Democratic 16th District in 2012 after his ally, Rep. Dennis Cardoza, chose to retire rather than seek re-election there.
That cycle, Democrats initially recruited state Sen. Michael Rubio, who looked like he’d be a formidable candidate against Valadao, at the time an assemblyman. But Rubio dropped out in December of 2011, citing family concerns, and Team Blue had a tough time finding another viable candidate. The DCCC ultimately ended up supporting Fresno City Councilor Blong Xiong, but he failed to advance past the top-two primary.
Instead, the Democratic nominee wound up being businessman John Hernandez, who raised very little money and lost the general election to Valadao 58-42 even as Barack Obama was carrying the seat 55-44. Democrats fielded a stronger candidate two years later in Amanda Renteria, but the 2014 GOP wave and awful turnout helped Valadao roll up another 58-42 win.
National Democrats hoped that in 2016, they’d finally enjoy that combination of a formidable candidate and good turnout. However, attorney Emilio Huerta didn’t impress many people and struggled to raise funds. Major Democratic groups, hoping that Trump would encourage local Latino voters to reject the entire GOP ticket, made a late attempt to target Valadao anyway, but he defeated Huerta by a convincing 57-43.
With three disappointments in a row, things again looked glum for 2018, and it seemed that weak turnout would give Valadao another term even if Team Blue did well nationally. It didn’t help that Democrats once again had a difficult time finding a viable candidate. Huerta announced he would run again, but national Democrats were not impressed by his first effort and didn’t see much reason for optimism that his second campaign would be better. It would be months before an alternative emerged.
There was, however, no reason to think it would be Cox, an engineer and community clinic investor who’d lost a 2006 House bid in a solidly Republican Central Valley seat to then-GOP Rep. George Radanovich 61-39. Yes, he was running for Congress again and raising a credible amount of money, but it wasn’t in the 21st.
Instead, Cox was one of several Democrats campaigning to the north the 10th District against GOP Rep. Jeff Denham in what looked like a much better pickup opportunity for Team Blue. However, the DCCC was reportedly concerned that there were too many Democrats running there and feared Republicans could end up advancing through the June top-two primary while Democrats split the blue vote.
Things changed in both races in March. In what appears to have been a coordinated move, Huerta announced he was dropping out, and Cox switched to the 21st. That maneuver didn’t just end up giving Democrats a better shot at Valadao, it likely saved them in the 10th. In June, a Republican came just 3,000 votes away from securing a spot in the general election against Denham; if Cox had remained on the ballot there, it’s very possible Team Blue would indeed have been locked out of the general election. But instead, Democrat Josh Harder advanced to November, where he defeated Denham 52-48.
Still, while Cox’s switch turned out to be bad news for Denham, it wasn’t immediately clear that Valadao was in much trouble. In the top-two primary, Valadao led Cox 63-37. (No other candidates were on the ballot.) While we’ve observed for years that the results of California’s top-two primary often do a bad job predicting how each party will do in November, this still looked like a strong sign that Valadao was in good shape five months ahead of Election Day.
Even in the fall, it seemed as though history would repeat itself. A late September poll from SurveyUSA showed Valadao leading Cox 50-39, and while that was the only public poll we ever saw, major outside groups on both sides very much behaved like they thought the incumbent was well ahead. Valadao’s allies at the NRCC slowly began canceling ad time for September and then October, only hanging on to reservations for the final week of the race. The DCCC, meanwhile, had only ever booked time for that final week of the race, but even they eventually axed that small reservation.
But it was in those last days that things finally got interesting. The Democratic group House Majority PAC launched a quarter-million dollar ad buy, their first investment of the entire race. The NRCC then not only declined to cancel their last remaining reservation, they also threw more money into helping Valadao. We don’t know what exactly transpired on either side behind the scenes, but it’s very possible that both parties realized that the Latino voters who’d sat out midterm races in the past were coming to the polls this time.
On election night, though, that last-minute flurry might have looked like it was a mistake. Results showed Valadao beating Cox 54-46, and major media organizations called the race for the incumbent that evening. While anyone who has followed California elections knew from past experience that there’s always a huge chuck of ballots left to count well after Election Day and that those votes tend to give Democrats a boost, an 8-point hole still looked too big for Cox to climb out of.
Only it wasn’t. Gradually, Cox made up ground as more ballots were counted, and on Nov. 26, almost three full weeks after Election Day, Cox took the lead for the first time and never gave it up. It was only then that many media outlets, including the Associated Press, uncalled the race, and Cox declared victory two days later. Valadao’s campaign was silent during this long count, and the congressman even co-founded a new congressional caucus (the Bipartisan Unexploded Ordnance Caucus, by the by) even though it was looking rather unlikely that he’d ever get to serve in it. Finally, Valadao spoke up and conceded on Thursday, sealing Cox’s impressive come-from-behind victory and adding one more member to the Democrats’ majority.