The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● IL-04: Wow. It's rare we ever say this, so you know we mean it when we tell you that this new TV ad from nonprofit director Sol Flores is a must-watch. The spot starts off prosaically enough: Flores, who narrates the ad herself, begins by saying, "My art teacher asked me why I was building a chest. I was 11." Footage recreating the scene ("1984 Chicago") rolls by, and at this point, perhaps, you might expect the box to be a metaphor for Flores' hopes, or maybe you're anticipating that the teacher said something dismissive.
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Just keep watching. Flores goes on: "And I didn't tell anyone that a man living with us would come into my bedroom when I was asleep and lift my nightgown. Well, I filled that chest with the heaviest things I could find, and I put it against that door"—here, we see Flores herself in her actual childhood bedroom, pointing to the door—"to wake me up so I could fight him off." Just wow. She concludes, "I'm Sol Flores, and I've dedicated my life to youth who need help. I approve this message, because I'll fight as hard for you in Congress as I did to protect myself." Flores has also posted a web video with a longer version of her story.
Flores is running in the Democratic primary for Illinois' 4th Congressional District, an open and safely blue seat in Chicago. She's a heavy underdog to Cook County Commissioner Chuy Garcia, who has a big edge in polling, fundraising, and endorsements.
Senate
● CA-Sen: The Public Policy Institute of California's latest poll finds Sen. Diane Feinstein leading state Senate leader (and fellow Democrat) Kevin de Leon by a 46-17 margin in June's top-two primary, but the big asterisk here is that PPIC didn't include any Republican contenders in its survey. That's understandable, since PPIC says it only asks about "candidates with significant news coverage and resources," and Republicans don't have anyone who qualifies, but that also makes it hard to get a read on what de Leon's chances of making it to the November general election actually are. California's filing deadline is in about a month, though, so we'll at least know which Republicans will in fact be on the ballot soon enough.
● ND-Sen: GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer spent over a year keeping his party guessing about his 2018 plans, only for him to announce in January that he wouldn't challenge Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. But Cramer isn't quite done jerking people around yet, since on Friday, he declared he was "mildly reconsidering" his plans not to enter the Senate race. Cramer said that he'd received encouragement from people he wouldn't name, but argued that "not a lot has changed" since he said no a month ago. Cramer continued to send mixed messages in an interview with Rob Port of the conservative blog Say Anything. Cramer said he was "very mildly" reconsidering, but that he and his wife would "sit down and re-evaluate everything." Ok, then.
Cramer's public indecision, no matter how lukewarm it is, won't be welcome news to state Sen. Tom Campbell and businessman and former state party chair Gary Emineth, the two Republicans who actually are running against Heitkamp. Cramer's star did dim last year after several offensive remarks, and national Republicans reportedly tried to find other candidates to run. However, they turned back to Cramer after their potential recruits all said no, and even Donald Trump didn't hide that he wanted Cramer to jump in. Team Red may be relieved if Cramer actually changes his mind and runs, but it seems far more likely he'll just spend some more time overshadowing the actual candidates and making it tougher for them to gain traction. The filing deadline is April 9.
The person who stands to lose the most from this is probably Emineth, a Cramer friend who entered the race weeks after the congressman said no in January. Emineth is an untested candidate, and he drew national attention after CNN uncovered several offensive tweets, including a 2016 call for users to "like and share" if they agreed no more mosques should be built in the United States; calling Barack Obama a "POS," and comparing people receiving food assistance to animals. All of this may not exactly hurt Emineth with voters in a state that backed Trump 63-27, but Emineth's attempts to defend himself were … not exactly convincing.
Emineth insisted to Port that he not only didn't know that POS stood for "piece of shit," but that he really meant to type "POTUS," and said of his post about the food stamp program, "The point of the post was about forest rangers, Park Service people talking about not feeding the animals because they become dependent on handouts and they'll never learn to take care of themselves."
It's worth remembering that Heitkamp pulled off her 2012 upset in part because Republican Rick Berg ran ads that made him look like a jerk, while Heitkamp was able to portray herself as an embodiment of "North Dakota nice." It's early, but Republicans have good reasons to be a bit nervous that Emineth could repeat Berg's mistakes. Port also wrote that Emineth "admittedly [has] only been in the race a short time but so far hasn't exactly impressed with his campaign skills."
By contrast, Cramer may be fine if he takes Campbell, a wealthy potato farmer and state senator, down a peg. Cramer was reportedly quite miffed that Campbell entered the Senate race while he was still considering what to do. National Republicans also continued to try and recruit Cramer and others even though Campbell was already in the race, so they don't seem too happy with him. Campbell's fundraising also indicates he's not exactly running a top-tier race. Campbell raised just $129,000 from donors during the final quarter of 2017, and while he self-funded another $320,000, he only had $322,000 on-hand at the end of December.
● OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Candidate filing closed last week for Ohio's May 8 primary. The state currently does not have a list of candidates, but the Columbus Dispatch has rounded up all the statewide contenders.
Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown will be a top GOP target in a state that shifted hard to Trump in 2016. State Treasurer Josh Mandel pulled the plug on his second campaign against Brown in January, citing his wife's health, but Rep. Jim Renacci quickly switched from the governor's race to the Senate contest and emerged as the clear primary favorite. Renacci, a wealthy Trump ally, faces businessman Mike Gibbons, who has pledged to self-fund up to $5 million, but he has had a tough time gaining traction. Investor Dan Kiley, who also says he'll self-fund, launched a campaign at the last minute as well.
The GOP primary to succeed termed-out Gov. John Kasich also looks pretty one-sided. Attorney General Mike DeWine, a former U.S. senator whom Brown unseated in 2006, has a huge financial edge over Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, as well as the support of the state GOP. Taylor is hoping to portray DeWine as a creature of the dreaded establishment, but she is doing it in the most awkward way possible. Taylor has Kasich's endorsement, which could be a big liability given Trump's animosity toward the governor, so she recently pretended that Kasich was actually supporting DeWine. Taylor also pledged not to endorse DeWine if he beat her in the primary, which probably isn't keeping him up at night.
The Democratic primary for governor may be a bit more interesting, but there's still a clear frontrunner. Richard Cordray, who narrowly lost re-election as attorney general to Mike DeWine in 2010, resigned in the fall as head of the federal Consumer Protection Bureau to run here. Cordray quickly raised $2 million in his first two months in the race, leaving him with a larger war chest than any of his primary foes. Cordray's main opponent looks like Connie Pillich, a former state representative from the Cincinnati area and Air Force veteran who lost the 2014 treasurer's race to Josh Mandel during the GOP wave. Pillich had about $900,000 in the bank at the end of January, and she soon received an endorsement from EMILY's List.
A few other Democrats are also in the mix. Jon Heavey, an Army veteran and physician at the Cleveland Clinic, self-funded $1.5 million for his campaign, but party leaders say they know little about him. State Sen. Joe Schiavoni, a former minority leader from the Youngstown area, has been running for a while, but he only had $277,000 on-hand. Former Rep. Dennis Kucinich is also in, but the two-time quixotic presidential candidate-turned Trump-friendly Fox News talking head isn't exactly a good fit for the Democratic Party. Neither is former state Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill, who stayed in the race even after he published a very reprehensible Facebook post and argued that the media was being unfair to Roy Moore, the Alabama GOP Senate nominee whom multiple women have accused of predatory behavior.
● PA-Sen: While some state Republicans have been fretting that they think Rep. Lou Barletta is a weak candidate, party leaders are closing ranks behind him. On Sunday, Donald Trump endorsed Barletta over Twitter, which came a day after the congressman earned the state party's endorsement. Barletta first came to national prominence during the last decade as a harsh foe of undocumented immigration while serving as mayor of the small city of Hazleton, in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre region, so it's hardly a surprise that Trump likes him.
Even though some Republicans are worried that Barletta's meh fundraising (he raised just $490,000 in the last quarter) and ties to far-right groups will be a liability against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, they don't really have other viable options. Wealthy businessman Paul Addis has admitted he cast a write-in vote in 2016 rather than support Trump, and he declared in June that the GOP had "lost its way." And while Addis said back then that he'd only "partially" self-fund his race, he's collected a total of $12,000 from donors throughout his time in the race. Addis has loaned himself $1.45 million, including $500,000 during the fourth quarter, and his $1.3 million war chest was slightly larger than the $1.1 million Barletta had, but all the money in the world probably can't make him palatable to voters in the May primary. State Rep. Jim Christiana is also in, but he ended December with just $18,000 on-hand.
● TN-Sen: On Sunday, CNN reported that GOP Sen. Bob Corker had been talking to colleagues in recent days about possibly running for re-election after all. Those sources disagree about how serious he is, but Corker's team very much did not close the door on him changing his plans. An unnamed senior Corker advisor told The Tennessean that "[i]t is true that Senator Corker has been encouraged by people across Tennessee and in the Senate to reconsider his decision, but at this point nothing has changed" (emphasis ours). Corker himself only added fuel to the fire on Monday. On three separate occasions, CNN's Manu Raju asked the senator if he was reconsidering, only to be told, "I don't have anything to say." After Raju told him that response could be viewed as him not ruling out another bid, Corker just repeated his refrain. The filing deadline is in the first week of April.
A few Republicans entered the race after Corker announced he would retire in September, and they may not be so willing to defer to him. Rep. Marsha Blackburn is the frontrunner in the August primary, and her allies at the Club for Growth released a poll in January that gave her a crazy 63-25 lead over Corker in a hypothetical primary. It's not at all implausible that Corker has burned this many bridges with Republican voters. While Corker has voted like a loyal Trump ally, he's been a loud critic since he decided to call it quits over the fall; Trump has responded by labeling him "Liddle Bob Corker."
However, the two seem to have improved their relationship a bit in recent months, which may be why Corker thinks he has a chance at a third term. CNN also reported that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told Corker that if he wants to run again, he'll need Trump's support. That's unlikely to happen, but not utterly impossible. Back in January, Politico noted that Trump's opinions about people can change immediately after they start sucking up to him, and the senator who accused Trump of "debasing" the country already seems to have his brown-nosing game on.
● WV-Sen: Disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship has been running some crazy low-budget ads ahead of the May GOP primary, and you can find his latest here. Blankenship's new offering mostly bashes Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin by arguing that Blankenship has created jobs while he hasn't. The narrator charges that the state is still 50th in jobs (whatever that means), which hasn't changed since Manchin was first elected to office in 1982. The ad also features some shots of Manchin with Obama and Clinton, though it doesn't actually spend any more time making the case for why primary voters should support Blankenship. And if Blankenship is so great at creating jobs, why is West Virginia supposedly still doing so badly on that front, anyway?
Manchin will be a top GOP target, but the last thing the GOP wants is for Blankenship to somehow come out ahead in the primary. The former CEO of Massey Energy was sentenced to a year in prison in 2016 for violating federal mine safety laws in connection to the 2010 explosion in the Upper Big Branch Mine that killed 29 miners. Blankenship got out of jail last year, but he remains on probation until May 9, the day after the primary, and he also resides in Nevada. However, Blankenship does have some resources to make sure that his ads, as bad as they are, get seen. Blankenship self-funded $400,000 during the final quarter of 2017, while he didn't raise so much as a cent from donors. At the end of December, Blankenship had $147,000 on-hand.
The only poll we've seen of the primary was a survey from Rep. Evan Jenkins that gave him a 33-25 lead over Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, with Blankenship at 12. However, it's the guy in the middle who is winning the fundraising race, though not by quite as much as it initially looked. While we recently wrote that Morrisey had outraised Jenkins $737,000 to $204,000, it turns out that only $445,000 of that was from donors who weren't Patrick Morrisey.
Jenkins held a $1.4 million to $1.1 million cash-on-hand advantage over the attorney general at the end of December, but that's a considerably smaller margin than the $1.26 million to $548,000 edge Jenkins enjoyed three months before. Jenkins hasn't raised more than $370,000 during any quarter since the beginning of the cycle, so unless he picks up the pace a lot, Morrisey should pass him soon. For his part, Manchin brought in $788,000 for the quarter and had $4.7 million on-hand.
Gubernatorial
● AL-Gov: Candidate filing closed in Alabama on Friday, and we'll have a roundup of who is running in key contests in a future Digest. However, there was one last-minute development to note on the GOP side. State Sen. Slade Blackwell, who represents the very affluent Birmingham suburb of Mountain Brook, dropped his re-election campaign without any warning and switched to the governor's race. It's not clear why Blackwell is running, and days later, he doesn't seem to have made any public comment.
Blackwell is the co-owner of what the Alabama Political Report calls "a sizable real estate and development firm specializing in complex projects, partnerships and joint ventures in the healthcare and infrastructure industries," so he may have access to money. But Blackwell will need a lot to go right if he wants a chance to beat Gov. Kay Ivey in the June primary; a few other Republicans are also running.
● CA-Gov: Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom has led in all the polls of June's top-two primary for California's open governorship, and now he's finally putting his considerable war chest to work to make sure things stay that way. On Monday, Newsom launched his first TV ad of the race, highlighting the 14th anniversary of his decision as mayor of San Francisco to order the city clerk to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. At the time, coming just a few months after the Massachusetts Supreme Court first legalized same-sex marriage in the Bay State, it was a radical act, and municipal officials in several other jurisdictions soon followed suit. However, the California Supreme Court put a stop to Newsom's directive after just a month, and it invalidated all the licenses granted during that brief window (approximately 4,000 in total) later that summer.
● IL-Gov: State Rep. Jeanne Ives continues to push an anti-immigrant theme in her latest ad, which features a man whose brother was killed by a drunk driver, Saul Chavez, who is described in a caption as an "illegal alien" and allegedly fled to Mexico after posting a bond. At the end, text appears on screen saying, "Governor Rauner made Illinois a sanctuary state. He stands with illegal immigrants over Illinoisans."
● NY-Gov: State Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb abruptly dropped his long-shot bid for governor on Friday, saying that he couldn't bear the prospect of spending "at least the next nine months on the road, away from my loving wife." (Did he forget he was married before he launched his campaign?) That leaves just former Erie County Executive Joel Giambra and state Sen. John DeFrancisco in the GOP primary, though the better-connected DeFrancisco, who is deputy majority leader in the Senate, is the likely frontrunner for the privilege of running straight into the Andrew Cuomo buzzsaw.
● PA-Gov: On Saturday, state House Speaker Mike Turzai dropped out of the GOP primary to take on Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf. Turzai had only entered the primary in November after months of indecision, and he ended 2017 with $1 million on-hand. That was a whole lot less than the $5.9 million that wealthy state Sen. Scott Wagner had in the bank or the $5.5 million that businessman Paul Mango had on-hand (both men did plenty of self-funding), and he didn't have much time before the May primary to raise much more. Turzai's announcement came just before the state GOP voted to endorse Wagner. Attorney Laura Ellsworth is also in the mix, but she had only $417,000 on-hand.
● SC-Gov: Businessman John Warren, who is also a retired Marine, recently joined the June GOP primary. Warren began exploring a bid last year and threw down $50,000 of his own money, but it's unclear if he'll have the resources to get his campaign ready with only a few months to go before Election Day. The main candidates on the GOP side are Gov. Henry McMaster and former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton; if no one takes a majority, there will be a runoff later in June.
House
● FL-07: Freshman Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy is a top GOP target, but you wouldn't know that from her opponents' fundraising. State Rep. Mike Miller, who has the support of Sen. Marco Rubio, hauled in just $57,000 for the fourth quarter of 2017, leaving him with $185,000 on-hand. Miller recently unveiled a finance team that includes some notable donors and power-players, including former Disney World President Dick Nunis and two former state House speakers, so maybe he can turn things around before it's too late.
Businessman Scott Sturgill did a bit better with $102,000 raised and $266,000 in the bank. Sturgill seems to have fewer connections in GOP politics, though former Speaker John Boehner will headline a fundraiser for him. For her part, Murphy hauled in $326,000, and had $973,000 on-hand. This Orlando-area seat went from an extremely narrow Obama win to 51-44 Clinton.
● IL-07: Last week, the conservative site Daily Caller quoted Democratic Rep. Danny Davis as calling Louis Farrakhan, the anti-Semitic and anti-gay leader of the Nation of Islam, an "outstanding human being," but now Davis is apparently claiming he was misquoted. It's all a little strange, though, because Davis himself hasn't said anything directly. Instead, the claim that the Daily Caller misreported Davis' words was made by an unnamed official at the Anti-Defamation League, who in turn relayed it to the Jewish Telegraphic Agency. The JTA says it reached out to Davis' office for further comment but has not heard back.
● MN-08: Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan's decision to retire caught the political world by surprise, but the primary to succeed him is already developing. This ancestrally blue seat in the northeast corner of the state swung from 52-46 Obama to 54-39 Trump, and there's no question it will be a tough race for Democrats. Still, Team Blue has done well in the Iron Range down the ballot, and Democrats will fight hard to keep this district.
Former FBI analyst Leah Phifer launched a bid against Nolan in October, citing his bill to complete a land swap sought by local mining interests. Phifer had declared that she would drop out of the August primary if Nolan beat her for the party endorsement at the April 14 party convention. On Monday, Phifer also put out a statement saying she would still respect the Democratic endorsement process and urging her opponents to do the same. (More on that later.) However, Phifer had just $11,000 on-hand after her first quarter in the race, not a good haul at all for a tough race.
On Sunday, North Branch Mayor Kirsten Kennedy also announced she would seek the Democratic nod. North Branch is a small community with a population of 10,000, but Kennedy notably was Nolan's guest to the 2018 State of the Union.
Several other Democrats are talking about running. Former state Rep. Joe Radinovich told the Minnesota Post's Sam Brodey on Monday night that he'd announce his plans "in the next 24-36 hours," though he said he was still deciding what to do. Radinovich narrowly lost re-election in 2014 and then served as Nolan's campaign manager during his tight 2016 win. Radinovich currently serves as chief of staff to Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey.
State Rep. Jason Metsa, whom Brodey also calls a close Nolan ally, also said he was "thinking seriously" about running. State Sen. Tony Lourey also said he was considering. Both Democrats won re-election in 2016 as their seats were swinging from Obama to Trump: Metsa won 61-39 in a 48-45 Trump seat, while Lourey held on 55-45 as Trump taking his district 53-40.
And there's more! Michelle Lee, a retired Duluth news anchor, said on Friday she expected to decide in the next week. Jeff Anderson, a former Duluth city councilor who serves as Nolan's district director, also said he was thinking about it. Anderson ran in the 2012 primary and took third place with 29 percent of the vote, while his future boss won with 38 percent. In the no camp are former state Rep. Carly Melin; former Duluth Mayor Don Ness; Senate Minority Leader Tom Bakk; and former state Rep. Tony Sertich.
On the GOP side, St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber, a longtime Duluth police officer and former college hockey player, has been running for months. Stauber is a highly touted national party recruit, but his fundraising has been meh so far. Stauber raised just $118,000 for the final quarter of 2017, and he ended the year with $137,000 in the bank. The GOP was already planning to target this seat before Nolan retired, so it's not like Stauber was just running a longshot race that only just popped onto the big board this month.
Stauber looked like he'd have the GOP primary to himself before now, but that may change. Rich guy Stewart Mills, who lost two very tight races to Nolan in 2014 and 2016, said last year he wouldn't run again. However, Mills said Friday that he was now very interested in a third try. But one group that won't be interested in seeing Mills back is the NRCC. Back in October, Mills authored a long Facebook note not only announcing he wouldn't run against Nolan, but also railing on the NRCC for supposedly abandoning him last year in his hour of need.
State House Speaker Kurt Daudt also said over the summer he wouldn't run for this seat, but he didn't rule it out on Friday. Daudt said he hasn't "really done that thinking yet," and added, "but I have received a few phone calls that got me to think about it." Daudt has spent many, many, many months talking about running for governor, but with former Gov. Tim Pawlenty looking likely to jump in, he may find this race more appealing.
The filing deadline is June 5, but some candidates will need to decide sooner. As we mentioned above, the Democratic endorsement will be awarded April 14, while the GOP will do their convention on May 5. Winning the party endorsement isn't the same thing as winning the August primary, but plenty of activists and voters in both parties take it very seriously, and several candidates will drop out of the race if they lose the endorsement.
There's one big thing to note here on the Democratic side. Earlier this month, the party held a gubernatorial straw poll, the first step in picking delegates for its June endorsement convention for that race. The results were non-binding, but interesting: While Rep. Tim Walz carried seven of the eight congressional districts, state Auditor Rebecca Otto won the 8th. Otto notably has been running as an opponent of mining plans, and her win here is a good indication that the local activists who will have a huge say in the April district convention want a candidate who shares those views.
However, one of the reasons the Iron Range has been trending red is anger with Democrats on environmental issues. As we wrote all the way back in 2016, when it was becoming clear that Trump would perform well in the 8th, mining is a major part of the Iron Range's economy, and Democrats have been blamed for their perceived hostility toward copper and nickel mines. Some Democratic candidates seeking to succeed Nolan may decide it's better to skip the convention and proceed to the primary in order to avoid having to adopt a position on mining that could cause them problems in a general election.
● ND-AL: Democrats held this seat until the 2010 GOP wave, but Team Red has controlled it ever since. Still, as Heidi Heitkamp's 2012 Senate upset demonstrates, North Dakota can still be an unpredictable state. The conservative blog Say Anything reports that unnamed Democrats are trying to recruit former state Sen. Aaron Krauter to challenge GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer. Krauter hasn't said anything publicly about this contest, but he said in the fall that he was interested in getting back into politics. Krauter, who was Heitkamp's running mate during her unsuccessful 2000 bid for governor, left the legislature in 2009 to serve as the state director for the Farm Service Agency, a post he held until the end of the Obama administration.
● NJ-02: Powerful state Democrats very quickly consolidated behind state Sen. Jeff Van Drew's campaign to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo, but the GOP has had a much tougher time finding a viable candidate for this coastal South Jersey seat. Former Assemblyman Vince Polistina said no at the end of January, and other well-known Republicans also have been reluctant to get in.
James Toto, a city councilor in the small community of Somers Point (population 11,000) and an Army special forces veteran, jumped in around then, but there's no indication that party leaders are interested in him. A few other Republicans are in, but none of them look viable; engineer Brian Fitzherbert's announcement actually began, "You've probably never heard of me. Not many have in the district aside from my friends and family." The filing deadline is April 2 for this seat, which went from 54-45 Obama to 51-46 Trump.
● NY-09: It looks like Rep. Yvette Clarke might be on the receiving end of a spirited primary challenge this year. Clarke, who'd succeeded her mother on the city council in 2001, narrowly won an open-seat primary in the 9th District in 2006 but has never faced a serious battle for re-election since. This time, though, a 30-year-old community organizer and Harvard Business School graduate, Adem Bunkeddeko, appears to be putting together a legitimate campaign: He's attracted the support of prominent political figures like former Lt. Gov. Richard Ravitch and civil rights activist Vernon Jordan, and he managed to raise $120,000 in the last three months of 2017.
For a district like the 9th, which has a relatively low median income (especially given New York's high cost of living), that's a decent sum. The 9th is also very diverse: 47 percent of residents are black, 31 percent are white, 12 percent are Latino, and 7 percent are Asian. Located entirely in Brooklyn, the district contains neighborhoods like Park Slope, one of the wealthiest in the borough, and Crown Heights, which is predominantly black but is also home to the headquarters of Chabad, one of the largest Hasidic groups in the world. It's also where Bunkdekko, the son of Ugandan immigrants, lives.
Clarke, by contrast, lives to the south in Flatbush, and she brought in $164,000 in the fourth quarter. Her cash lead is pretty small, though, just $148,000 to $71,000. Clarke will still be very hard to beat; while she's had an unremarkable career in Congress, it also means she hasn't offended anyone. Even Bunkedekko, who’s made affordable housing his top issue, says that he has “great respect” for Clarke. Without charging Clarke with a fireable offense, it’s therefore unlikely Bunkedekko can win, but if he acquits himself well, he might set himself up for a future bid of some sort.
● NY-27: After a very strange episode a few weeks ago in which a top aide to Gov. Andrew Cuomo refused to confirm whether Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul would once again serve as Cuomo's running-mate this fall, the governor himself has now said, "I would very much like her to be on the ticket." The whole thing is still rather odd, though: If Cuomo wanted to put all speculation to rest, he and Hochul could simply sit down together, hash out their plans, and announce them to the public.
Instead, they're communicating through the press, and using language that still leaves some ambiguity. Cuomo always likes to keep people guessing, even his allies, and he has an autocrat's predilection for secrecy even where there's nothing to be gained by it, so this may not be the last word. The reason we're interested in all this, though, has nothing to do with New York's lieutenant governorship, a post so powerless even we can't find it in our hearts to care about it.
Rather, when the question of whether Hochul would remain on Cuomo's ticket came up last month, she simultaneously said her "choice is to continue on as lieutenant governor and to run for re-election with the governor" and refused to rule out a bid against GOP Rep. Chris Collins, the man who unseated her in 2012 after just a single term in Congress. Hochul could clarify whether she actually wants to wage a comeback bid with a simple statement one way or the other.
● OH-01: GOP Rep. Steve Chabot hasn't faced a serious Democratic opponent since the GOP made his Cincinnati-area seat more conservative during the 2012 round of redistricting. National Democrats spent months searching for a viable candidate for this 51-45 Trump seat, and Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval entered the race in January and faces no primary opposition.
Pureval impressed party leaders when he won his seat in 2016 by unseating a well-connected incumbent in what was considered a huge upset. Pureval also says he raised $130,000 in the 24 hours since he launched his campaign, which would be more than the $103,000 Chabot took in during the final three months of 2017. However, Chabot ended December with a big $1.2 million war chest. And as we've noted, Chabot is already arguing Pureval, who recently moved from the Hyde Park neighborhood of Cincinnati in the 2nd District to the 1st, is a carpetbagger. The Cincinnati Enquirer's Jason Williams recently wrote that Chabot also attacked an opponent from moving to the district from another part of Cincinnati in his 1996 race, a contest he won 54-43.
● OH-07: GOP Rep. Bob Gibbs hasn't had much to worry about since his initial 2010 win in this very contorted seat, which loops around to take up Canton, part of the Cleveland area, and other communities. But while Gibbs' district went from a tough 54-44 Romney to 62-33 Trump, he did pick up an interesting Democratic foe in retired Navy pilot Ken Harbaugh (even if he shares a last name with University of Michigan football coach Jim Harbaugh, Ohio State's nemesis), who ran a disaster relief organization. Harbaugh, who has one primary foe, has been a strong fundraiser throughout 2017, and he ended the year with $433,000 on-hand. That's a lot less than the $1.3 million Gibbs had at his disposal, but it's helped Harbaugh draw attention in a tough seat
● OH-10: GOP Rep. Mike Turner has always won decisively in this Dayton-area seat, which moved from 50-48 Romney to 51-44 Trump, but he could have problems in a tough year for his party. Three Democrats are running, and businesswoman Theresa Gasper looks like the clear primary frontrunner. Gasper runs an outfit that has focused on restoring Dayton's South Park neighborhood, as well as an executive suite company that works with defense contractors, and she may have the profile and connections to give Turner, a former mayor of Dayton, a scare.
● OH-12: GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi resigned last month to take a job leading an industry lobbying group, and that's created a bit of an odd situation at home. There will be an Aug. 7 special election to complete the final months of Tiberi's term: The primary for both the special election and the regular two-year term will be on May 8, and there's always a small chance that someone could win their party's nomination for just one of the two contests. This seat in the Columbus suburbs went for Trump 53-42 after backing Romney by a similar 54-44, and there's a good chance both parties will compete hard for it in August.
Eleven Republicans have filed to run for the full term (one minor Republican didn't file to run in the special), and it may take a while for this contest to come into focus. State Sen. Troy Balderson raised the most money before Dec. 31, but his $126,000 haul is hardly the stuff of legends. Real estate investor Jon Halverstadt and Delaware County Prosecuting Attorney Carol O'Brien each took in less than $30,000, but they did some self-funding. At the end of December, Balderson had $123,000 on-hand to Halverstadt's $77,000, while O'Brien had only $44,000 to spend. State Sen. Kevin Bacon (and yes, you can get from Kevin Bacon to Kevin Bacon in six degrees) announced he was running before the end of 2017, but only began fundraising in January, while Liberty Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan and economist and TV commentator Tim Kane entered the race after the deadline. (And no, we don't know if you can get from Tim Kane to Tim Kaine in six degrees.)
On the Democratic side, party leaders seem the most interested in Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor, who jumped in in January after initially saying he wouldn't run. O'Connor's main opponent is probably former Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott, who has a horrible relationship with Columbus-area Democratic power players. Scott lost an open seat race for mayor of Columbus in 2015 to fellow Democrat Andrew Ginther 59-41. Scott ran for re-election the next year, but lost the Democratic primary 52-48 against a candidate backed by Ginther and his allies. Scott began fundraising in December, but only had $6,000 in the bank at the end of the year. Farmer John Russell is also in, but he only had $20,000 war chest on-hand.
● OH-14: This suburban Cleveland seat went from 51-48 Romney all the way to 54-42 Trump, but Republican Rep. David Joyce could be vulnerable in a tough year. Attorney Betsy Rader raised $150,000 during the final months of 2017, and she had $230,000 on-hand. However, Joyce took in $318,000 during this time, leaving him with a $684,000 war chest. Neither candidate appears to have any primary opposition.
● OH-15: When the House GOP picked Rep. Steve Stivers to chair the NRCC, they did it with the understanding that he wouldn't need to worry about re-election in his suburban Columbus seat. Stivers' district shifted from 52-46 Romney to 55-40 Trump, and it will be a tough nut to crack. Still, Democrat Rick Neal, a former international aide worker, took in $132,000 during the final quarter of 2017. Stivers holds a huge $1.8 million to $196,000 cash-on-hand edge, but if Neal just keeps Stivers from being able to fully concentrate on his duties at the NRCC, Team Blue would be delighted.
● OH-16: GOP Rep. Jim Renacci announced in March that he would leave this district behind to run statewide. This very gerrymandered seat, which includes parts of the Akron, Canton, and Cleveland areas, went from 53-45 Romney to 56-39 Trump, and so far, all the action has been on the GOP side. Anthony Gonzalez, who was a football star at the Ohio State University and later went on to play for the Indianapolis Colts, has decisively outraised state Rep. Christina Hagan, who was a prominent Trump backer. At the end of December, Gonzalez held a huge $742,000 to $199,000 cash-on-hand edge.
Gonzalez has the support of some influential donors and local political figures, while Hagan, who will be 29 on the day of the general election, is hoping to out-Trump him. Hagan has the endorsements of two of the most prominent people to be fired from the Trump administration: Anthony Scaramucci and Sebastian Gorka. One other Republican and six Democrats are running, and we'll see if anyone catches fire.
● OK-02: GOP Rep. Markwayne Mullin announced last year that he was disregarding his pledge to retire after three terms and seeking re-election. While it's not clear how much primary voters will care in June, the anti-tax group the Club for Growth seems determined to go after Mullin.
The Washington Examiner's David Drucker reports that the Club is airing a 15-second commercial hitting the congressman for abandoning his term-limits promise and "want[ing] to bring back earmarks—special interest spending scams that cost taxpayers billions." Army veteran Jarrin Jackson, who lost to Mullin 62-38 in the 2016 primary, is running again, but Drucker writes that the Club is looking to recruit a challenger before the April filing deadline. Because Oklahoma requires a runoff if no one takes a majority in the primary, the Club doesn't need to worry about too many challengers splitting the anti-Mullin vote. This rural eastern Oklahoma seat was in Democratic hands until 2012, but the GOP should have little trouble keeping this 73-23 Trump seat no matter what happens in the primary.
● SC-04: GOP Rep. Trey Gowdy announced late last month that he'd retire from this safely red seat, and a few Republicans have jumped in the race since then. Attorney Stephen Brown, who is a former chairman of the Greenville County GOP, and state Rep. Dan Hamilton both told a local Republican gathering they were in, while state Sen. William Timmons has set up a campaign site announcing he's running. Timmons said earlier this month that he'd plan to spend $500,000 of his own money on a campaign. The filing deadline for the June primary is at the end of March.
● TX-21: The Club for Growth is going up with a TV spot in support of Chip Roy, a former chief of staff to Sen. Ted Cruz, ahead of the crowded March 6 primary for this open seat. Cruz tells the audience that Roy beat cancer and has fought to fully repeal Obamacare. There is no word on the size of the buy.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Three more a-comin' your way Tuesday night. Johnny Longtorso has the preview:
Florida HD-72: This is an open Republican seat in Sarasota; Alexandra Miller resigned for personal reasons. The Democratic candidate is Margaret Good, an attorney, while the Republican candidate is James Buchanan, a real estate agent and the son of Rep. Vern Buchanan. Also on the ballot is Libertarian Alison Foxall. This seat went 51-46 for Trump in 2016 and 51-48 for Romney in 2012.
Georgia HD-175: This is an open Republican seat in the southern end of the state. It was left vacant when Amy Carter took a job with Georgia's technical college system. Four candidates are on the ballot here, including one Democrat: Treva Gear, an educator. Also on the ballot are three Republicans: John LaHood, the CEO of an assisted living facility; Bruce Phelps, an EMT; and Coy Reaves, a businessman. A runoff will be held on March 13 if no candidate receives a majority. This seat went 61-37 for Trump and 66-33 for Romney.
Oklahoma SD-27: This is an open Republican seat in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Bryce Marlatt resigned following sexual battery charges being filed against him. The Democratic candidate is Amber Jensen, a volunteer at a nonprofit, while the Republican candidate is state Rep. Casey Murdock. This seat went 84-11 for Trump and 85-15 for Romney.
The Florida race is one to watch in particular. Republicans seem to be worried about their chances of holding the seat, so much so that they shipped in Corey Lewandowski to rally the Trumpist faithful on Sunday. (It might be 2018, but one speaker at the event even started a "lock her up" chant.) Meanwhile, Good earned an endorsement last week from none other than Joe Biden, who also just recorded a robocall for her. Democrats face a deep deficit in the Florida House, but you've got to start somewhere.
