The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● VA-05: GOP Rep. Tom Garrett used a long and rambling Thursday press conference to announce that he would run for a second term in Virginia's 5th Congressional District after all. Garrett's declaration ended a very confusing 24 hours that began when his chief of staff quit and Politico reported that Garrett was thinking of dropping out of the race. The congressman soon only said he would not be resigning, and he promised to say more later. Republicans also began openly speculating about whom local party leaders would pick to replace him if he ended his re-election campaign.
Campaign Action
Garrett held his press conference Thursday afternoon, and we still can’t believe everything we heard with our own ears. Garrett began his roughly 25-minute monologue by saying he had spent more time on it than he has "on anything in a long time" does because he wanted to "get this right," and well ... maybe he should have hired an editor. Garrett spent several minutes talking about his work in the state Senate and in his one term in Congress and declared several times, "I did that," which left viewers thinking he was about to declare he was leaving the political stage.
But Garrett instead went on to describe how furious he was that the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies made it difficult for University of Virginia women's basketball coach Joanne Boyle to adopt a young girl from Senegal and exclaimed, "This is the worst country in the world except for the other ones." Garrett frequently returned to talking about Boyle throughout the half-hour address.
And he didn't stop there. Garrett, who frequently banged his speech against his hands, complained about an unnamed person who considered challenging him whom he said called him "a cancer on our nation" and said that the real cancers were people who used that kind of vitriol. Garrett also complained that a would-be foe (it's not clear if it's the same person) had lied and said he hadn't condemned last year’s white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, which is in his district.
Garrett continued and said “our nation was founded by imperfect people like a slave-owner named Jefferson on near-perfect ideas,” and he launched into a discussion about the imperfections of King David, Moses, and Thomas Jefferson. Garrett soon admitted that, "Yesterday, in frustration, I said I don't know if I want to do this anymore," before declaring, "There's no way in heck I won't be back here in 2019." He also apologized “for the way this played out,” and explained his chief of staff’s departure with “sometimes in life you decide to do different things” and, “Stuff happens.”
GOP leaders may be wishing Garrett had just gotten a little more frustrated so he would retire and let them pick a new nominee. While this seat went from 53-46 Romney to 53-42 Trump, anonymous House Republicans have complained all year that Garrett has been not taking his re-election campaign seriously, and this not-retirement isn’t going to make his naysayers feel any better. Garrett has been a weak fundraiser, and Democratic nominee Leslie Cockburn held a $271,000 to $133,000 cash-on-hand edge over him in mid-April. Garrett admitted on Thursday that his fundraising hasn't been great, but said he'd post better numbers in the next quarter.
Gubernatorial
● AL-Gov: GOP Gov. Kay Ivey is out with a Tarrance Group survey giving her a hefty 58-18 lead over Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle in the June 5 primary. That's actually a bit smaller than the 66-11 lead Tarrance found for her in September, though it still has Ivey taking the majority of the vote she'd need to avoid a July runoff. The only other poll we've seen here all year was a late April survey for Leverage Public Strategies for the Alabama Daily News that gave Ivey a 47-11 lead over Battle.
● AZ-Gov: In a previous Digest, we incorrectly wrote that AFSCME had endorsed only Arizona State University professor David Garcia in the Democratic primary: This was actually a dual endorsement for Garcia and state Sen. Steve Farley.
● CA-Gov, CA-Sen: The Public Policy Institute of California is out with another poll of the June 5 top-two primary for governor. They give Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom the lead with 25 percent, while GOP businessman John Cox edges Democratic former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa 19-15 for the second general election spot.
Note that this poll was conducted May 11 through 20, and Donald Trump only endorsed Cox on the 18th. That endorsement, which happened too late for this poll to measure, probably hurt Villaraigosa quite a bit, since he'll have a tough time making second place if Cox takes most of the GOP vote.
Villaraigosa's allies at the super PAC Families and Teachers for Antonio Villaraigosa for Governor 2018, which is mostly funded by wealthy charter school advocates, also recently launched another TV ad. This one features a 2008 clip of Barack Obama praising Villaraigosa when he was still mayor, and it features photos of the two together. Obama has not taken sides in this contest, but Villaraigosa's allies probably wouldn't mind if Democratic viewers come away thinking that he's backing their candidate.
PPIC also took a look at the Senate race, but the only candidates they mentioned by name are the two main Democrats, Sen. Dianne Feinstein and state Sen. Kevin de Leon. While the only Republicans running are all Some Dudes, it's still possible that one of them will take more support than de Leon and make it to the general election with Feinstein, so this poll isn't very useful. In any case, they have Feinstein ahead 41-17, while someone else (the respondent is asked to specify which of the 30 unnamed other candidates they're supporting) takes a combined 5 percent.
● IA-Gov: On Thursday, state Sen. Nate Boulton announced he was suspending his campaign in the June 5 Democratic primary, a move that came one day after the Des Moines Register published a story where three women accused him of sexual harassment. Boulton said he was suspending his campaign rather than dropping out, and it's too late to remove his name from the ballot (early voting began earlier this month), but there's little question his campaign is over. Democratic state Senate leaders have also called for Boulton, whose seat won't be up until 2020, to resign from the chamber.
Until Wednesday, Boulton was one of the major candidates in the primary. The state senator had heavy support from organized labor, and two recent polls showed him in second place with 20 percent support. Now, Boulton's absence from the race may make it easier for businessman Fred Hubbell to take enough support to win the nomination on June 5.
Candidates need to win at least 35 percent of the vote in order to win without going through a party convention: One poll showed Hubbell at 46 percent, while the other put him at 31. With fewer active candidates in the race, Hubbell's math will get a bit better unless Boulton's voters end up overwhelmingly breaking for one of the other five Democrats. It's possible that Cathy Glasson, the leader of an influential SEIU union for healthcare workers in the University of Iowa system, will be the candidate best positioned to pick up Boulton's supporters.
● MD-Gov: Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker is putting Sen. Chris Van Hollen front-and-center in his first TV spot ahead of the June 26 Democratic primary. The ad features footage of Van Hollen endorsing Baker last year before the narrator tells the audience that the Washington Post is also for Baker. Maryland Matters writes that the spot is geared towards Montgomery County, where Van Hollen was a congressman before he won his Senate race last cycle.
● MI-Gov: On Thursday, former Sen. Carl Levin endorsed former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer.
● MN-Gov: On Tuesday, state Senate Minority Leader Tom Bakk told the Star Tribune that he was interested in making a last-minute bid for the Democratic nomination if the party convention ended in a deadlock in the first weekend of June.
State Auditor Rebecca Otto and state Rep. Erin Murphy have made it clear that they'd drop out of the August primary if someone else won the party endorsement, while Rep. Tim Walz says he'll continue his campaign no matter what. But it takes the support of 60 percent of the delegates to win the party endorsement, and if no one pulls this off, all three candidates could keep competing into August. Bakk says he could have a path to the Democratic nomination under those circumstances, arguing that the crowded primary for the open 8th Congressional District will boost turnout in his rural northeastern base.
● NY-Gov, NY-AG: As expected, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and his endorsee for New York's open attorney general's race, New York City Public Advocate Tish James, both won the overwhelming support of delegates at the Democratic Party's convention on Wednesday, with Cuomo taking 95 percent of the vote and James earning 85. As a result, their rivals will have to petition their way onto the September primary ballot, meaning they'll have to collect signatures from 15,000 registered Democrats across the state, including at least 100 in half of the state's 27 congressional districts.
Just as unsurprisingly, Cuomo also received an endorsement from Hillary Clinton, who of course represented New York in the Senate and delivered the convention's keynote address. In addition, Joe Biden, who's had a long relationship with the governor, gave a speech backing Cuomo on the convention's second day.
New York's Republicans were also busy holding their own convention at the same time, and they, too, followed script, nominating Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro for governor. The only other notable Republican who'd been seeking the governorship, former state housing commissioner Joe Holland, announced he'd switch to the attorney general's race.
● TN-Gov: The political arm of the Tennessee Education Association has endorsed both state House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh in the Democratic primary and state House Speaker Beth Harwell in the GOP contest. The duo both got the support of the Tennessee State Employees Association's PAC earlier this month.
● WI-Gov: The state AFSCME has endorsed Mahlon Mitchell, the head of the state firefighter's union, for the August Democratic primary. The state AFL-CIO and SEIU previously backed Mitchell.
House
● CA-04: Former national security strategist Jessica Morse has launched a $200,000 TV ad campaign against GOP Rep. Tom McClintock ahead of the June 5 top-two primary. The narrator hits McClintock for still not living in the district he represents after 10 years in Congress, and for voting "against funding to prevent wildfires or to help homeowners rebuild after natural disasters." Morse then appears and touts her local roots. Morse and former State Department officer Regina Bateson are the main Democrats competing to face McClintock in this 54-39 Trump seat.
● CA-39, CA-48, CA-49: Major Democratic groups are spending even more to try and prevent a top-two disaster in three Southern California seats. In the 39th District, the DCCC is spending an additional $287,000 to once again attack two Republicans, former state Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff and Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson; they're continuing to ignore former Assemblywoman Young Kim, who seems to be the GOP frontrunner.
In the 48th, the DCCC has dropped $487,000 more against former Orange County GOP Chair Scott Baugh, while their allies at House Majority PAC are reportedly about to launch a $650,000 buy targeting him. There's little chance that GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher won't make the general election, so Team Blue is trying to do whatever they can to weaken Baugh so a Democrat can advance. Finally, the DCCC is deploying another $482,000 against GOP Assemblyman Rocky Chavez in the 49th District.
● HI-01: Hawaii's Campaign Spending Commission, which has accused state Rep. Kaniela Ing of 31 counts of violating state campaign finance laws, said on Wednesday that it will wait at least a month before deciding how to act on those charges, which could carry a fine of over $15,000. Ing is seeking the Democratic nomination for the state's open 1st Congressional District, though the accusations don't relate to his current bid but rather to his earlier campaigns for the state legislature. Among the claims are charges that Ing used campaign funds for personal use.
● KS-03: EMILY's List has endorsed attorney Sharice Davids in the August Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder.
● KY-06, TX-07: The DCCC has added Amy McGrath and Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, who won their Democratic primaries on Tuesday, to their Red to Blue list for top candidates.
● NC-09: It's been two weeks since Mark Harris unseated Rep. Robert Pittenger in the GOP primary, but it's still too early to schedule the unity breakfast. When Pittenger was asked on Spectrum News' Capital Tonight this week if he would be supporting Harris in the general election with Democrat Dan McCready, the defeated congressman responded, "I just think that Mr. Harris ought to come out and say, 'Hey I'm sorry. I apologize for saying things that were not correct about my opponent, Robert Pittenger.'"
Pittenger continued by saying that, while people had gone up to him at the polls to tell him, "You're killing babies," he wasn't for funding Planned Parenthood, and despite what negative mail and TV ads said, he was most definitely for a border wall and against sanctuary cities. Pittenger concluded by declaring that, while he'll "have to live with" how the campaign went, he thinks Harris should be "coming out and saying, 'Hey, I went too far'." Harris has not come out and said he went too far, and his spokesperson instead said they want to give Pittenger "the space he needs" after his loss.
● NM-01: With Honor Fund, which backs veterans from both parties, is spending at least $118,000 on a TV ad for former U.S. Attorney Damon Martinez in the June 5 Democratic primary, which takes their investment here to $488,000. We do not have a copy of their spot yet.
● NY-25: State Assembly Majority Leader Joseph Morelle, one of the leading Democrats running for New York's vacant 25th Congressional District, apologized on Wednesday for saying "I absolutely don't believe a word of it," regarding rape allegations levied against a top legislative staffer in 2001. Two years later, that same staffer, Michael Boxley, was charged with raping another woman and pleaded guilty to sexual misconduct but avoided jail time.
The incident came to light because Boxley's original accuser, Elizabeth Crothers, endorsed one of Morelle's rivals, former television journalist Rachel Barnhart, on Wednesday. (In 2001, Crothers was a 24-year-old legislative aide while Boxley was 41 and the chief counsel to Sheldon Silver, then the all-powerful speaker of the Assembly. Boxley's 2003 victim was also a legislative staffer.) In response, Morelle said, "I made a mistake by speaking without full knowledge of the situation regarding Ms. Crothers. I am truly sorry for the insensitive comment I made."
Crothers told the Democrat & Chronicle that she came forward because she doesn't believe Morelle should serve in Congress, adding that while she appreciated Morelle's apology, it only came "in the context of a campaign." Earlier this year, Crothers told the New York Daily News that she had loved working in the Assembly but "wasn't able to pursue the career that I envisioned." Boxley, on the other hand, went on to become a lobbyist, targeting the very same legislature where he'd been accused of raping two different women. He recently "parted ways" with his lobbying firm.
● SC-01: Attorney Joe Cunningham is up with his first TV ad ahead of the June 12 Democratic primary, where he faces no serious opposition. It begins with an ultrasound of his son, and Cunningham says he's running so he could "look back and tell my son that at this pivotal moment in our nation's history, I joined so many other good people and did something." Cunningham is running to take on Rep. Mark Sanford, who is trying to fend off state Rep. Katie Arrington in the GOP primary.
Grab Bag
● Demographics: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to present racial demographic statistics for every congressional district in the 115th Congress broken down by age and citizenship status. We’ve calculated these figures by using estimates from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey, which is a large statistical sample of Americans conducted each year.
We have compiled the estimated proportion of each district's residents who are white, black, Latino, Asian and Pacific Islander, or Native American. You can view these categories broken down four ways, using estimates of four different population types for each district: the total population of all residents; the voting-age (i.e., adult) population; the total citizen population; and finally the citizen voting age population. The predominant racial group for each population type is shaded, with majorities darker and pluralities lighter.
Most importantly, these statistics can give you a good idea of just how different the demographics are between the population at large and the pool of eligible voters for every district. Nationwide, citizens of voting age are 70 percent white and just 11 percent Latino, while the country’s total population is only 62 percent white and 17 percent Latino.
And in a district like California’s 21st, which is based in the state’s agriculture-heavy Central Valley and thus is home to a large migrant population, the difference is even starker: Among all residents, the seat is 74 percent Latino and only 17 percent white, but the citizen voting age population is 59 percent Latino and 29 percent white. That disparity partly explains why a Republican, Rep. David Valadao, has represented the area since 2013.
For districts with large populations of immigrants and children, these numbers can also give you an idea of where a district's demographics are headed over the years as these groups naturalize and reach voting age, respectively.
Note that, while the citizen voting age population is the closest estimate we have of the eligible-voter population, the two statistics aren’t necessarily identical. The reason is because most states disenfranchise those serving time for felony convictions, and a few even ban such people from voting for life, even after they’ve completed their sentences. Therefore, some citizens who are of voting age are nonetheless ineligible to vote due to their felony status.
However, the Census Bureau doesn’t calculate data on felony disenfranchisement broken down by race and citizenship status for each district. As a result, the proportion of eligible voters for each racial group may differ somewhat from the corresponding proportion of citizen vote-age population for each group, likely in a way that would tend to increase the white share of the electorate. That’s because felony disenfranchisement laws were designed during Jim Crow to disenfranchise African Americans, and to this day, they have a disproportionate impact on people of color.
You can also find these same stats, along with election results, member biographical information, and much more in our complete guide to the 115th Congress.
● Programing Note: We'll be taking off Friday and Monday for Memorial Day weekend, so that means no Live Digest either of those days (it'll return on Tuesday). For those who read us on the web or via email, there will be no Morning Digest on Monday or Tuesday, but we'll be back on the web and in your inbox on Wednesday. Enjoy the holiday!