The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● CA-Gov: Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom has made his first public move to try to shape the June 5 top-two primary outcome in his favor by launching an "attack" ad against businessman John Cox, a Republican. The spot calls out Cox for standing with Trump and the NRA in opposition to gun-safety measures, while the second half of the ad praises Newsom for working to pass common-sense gun laws.
Campaign Action
While this ad is far more subtle than Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill's legendary ads calling infamous GOP Rep. Todd Akin "too conservative" as a way to ensure the flawed Republican won the primary in 2012, its goal is not much different. Newsom has led every poll of the contest, but surveys have often shown a competitive race between Cox and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat, for the second top-two general election spot. Newsom would undoubtedly prefer to face a conservative Republican than a fellow Democrat in the general election in this dark-blue state.
However, national Democrats are unlikely to share Newsom's desire, thanks to the down-ballot implications. If Newsom and Villaraigosa were to advance to November, and especially if the Senate election also were to see an all-Democratic affair, GOP turnout could plummet and endanger their hold on key House districts. But if Cox gets to face Newsom in November, he would at least give the GOP a well-funded contender to rally around in an effort to boost turnout. Ads from Newsom could do that very thing by raising Cox's name recognition over his lesser-known GOP rival, Assemblyman Travis Allen, helping him edge out Villaraigosa in June.
Senate
● CA-Sen: Barack Obama has endorsed Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein in her race against Democratic state Sen. Kevin de Leon.
● MI-Sen: Businessman and veteran John James has launched his first ad ahead of the August Republican primary. The spot begins with footage of a military raid while James claims there's two things he needed to "hunt terrorists in the skies above Baghdad: faith in God ... and a Hellfire missile," and yup, James' next shot shows him standing behind a prop missile with "U.S. ARMY" emblazoned on it. James then rattles off a list of standard conservative platitudes he says he'll fight for if elected.
● MT-Sen: VoteVets is dropping $200,000 on a TV ad in support of Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. Their spot features a veteran praising Tester for fighting for veterans' access to health care, particularly in rural areas.
● NV-Sen: Polling on behalf of the progressive Health Care Voter coalition, PPP has surveyed Nevada's Senate race between Republican Sen. Dean Heller and Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen. They find Rosen with a 44-42 lead over Heller, while the incumbent sports an abysmal 29 percent approval rating and 51 percent disapproval score. These numbers are very similar to a recent Mellman Group poll for the Nevada Independent, which had Rosen with a small 40-39 edge over Heller.
● WV-Sen: Don Blankenship continues to run the most unhinged, overtly racist campaign for public office since … well, since that other guy named Don blazed this particular trail not so very long ago. In his final ad ahead of Tuesday's primary, Blankenship once again combines Trump's malice with Jeb Bush's lethargy to produce what might be his most astounding work of all. We just have to let him speak for himself:
Swamp captain Mitch McConnell has created millions of jobs for China people. While doing so, Mitch has gotten rich. In fact, his China family has given him tens of millions of dollars. Mitch's swamp people are now running false negative ads against me. They're also childishly calling me despicable and mentally ill. The war to drain the swamp and create jobs for West Virginia people has begun. I will beat Joe Manchin and ditch Cocaine Mitch for the sake of the kids.
We're not even going to bother trying to prise this one apart—we're scared of what else we might find inside. But we will share Blankenship's defense of this ad, which is as remarkable as the ad itself:
We're confused on our staff as to how it can be racist when there's no mention of a race. There's no race. Races are negro, white Caucasian, Hispanic, Asian. There's no mention of a race. I've never used a race word.
Yes, he actually said "Races are negro" as his explanation for why his racist "China people" ad isn't racist. Don Blankenship, ladies and gentlemen.
Gubernatorial
● AZ-Gov: VoteVets has endorsed Arizona State University professor David Garcia in the Democratic primary for governor, where he faces state Sen. Steve Farley.
● FL-Gov: FrederickPolls, which previously worked on behalf of former Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, has released a survey testing Murphy in a hypothetical Democratic primary for governor; Frederick claims the poll was commissioned by an anonymous Murphy supporter. The poll shows Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine leading with 20 percent while Murphy ties fellow ex-Rep. Gwen Graham for second place with 14 percent each and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum earns just 6 percent.
Murphy has so far only refused to rule out running after news reports last month suggested he could make a last-minute entry into the primary and run on a so-called unity ticket with former Republican Rep. David Jolly as his running mate. While Frederick tries to argue the primary is still wide open, it's hard to see Murphy gaining much traction by explicitly running toward the middle in a field of candidates who have already been running and raising funds for months ahead of the Aug. 28 primary.
● GA-Gov: Former state Rep. Stacey Evans is the first candidate to go negative in the Democratic primary, where she faces former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams. Evans' spot features a black teenager standing in a classroom who calls herself a high school senior preparing to go to college. The young woman laments how "a lot of my classmates aren't [going to college]" and accuses Abrams of siding with Republicans to cut the HOPE Scholarship in 2011, while the ad claims that "97 percent of African-American high school graduates lost access to full scholarships."
● ME-Gov: State Attorney Janet Mills has debuted her first ad ahead of the June 12 Democratic primary for governor. The spot blasts hard-right GOP Gov. Paul LePage for trying to eliminate healthcare coverage for thousands of Maine children, lauding Mills for stopping him in court. The commercial also praises her for taking on Wall Street and fighting for better health care for Maine families.
● MO-Gov: It was rumored to be in the offing for weeks, but on Thursday, Missouri legislative leaders announced that they'd convene a special session on May 18 that could result in Gov. Eric Greitens' impeachment.
This announcement comes after 138 House members and 29 state Senators effectively triggered the session by signing a petition calling for the session "for the sole purpose of considering the findings and recommendations of the House of Representatives Special Investigative Committee on Oversight including, but not limited to, disciplinary actions against Governor Eric. R. Greitens." (Three-fourths of the 164 House members and of the 34 Senate members — 123 and 26, respectively—had to sign to trigger the special session.)
The findings of that Special Investigative Committee on Oversight are pretty damning. The committee released two reports relating to each of Greitens' two separate felony charges.
The first bombshell report dropped in April and was the result of a felony invasion of privacy charge stemming from an involuntary nude photo session Greitens had forced on the woman he'd been having an affair with. The report contained the truly horrifying account of Greitens restraining, exposing, and photographing this woman without her consent, and then, as she wept "uncontrollably," pushing her to the floor and coercing her into giving him oral sex "under duress" before permitting her to leave his home.
The second report, released just this week, related to a felony computer tampering charge resulting from Greitens' alleged misuse of a donor list from his non-profit organization to fundraise for his gubernatorial campaign.
This report contains evidence Greitens lied in campaign filings and violated campaign finance law when he operated a "shadow campaign"—for perhaps almost two years—before filing his candidacy paperwork with election officials in Feb. 2015. Prior to that point, Greitens paid staffers to do campaign work from his personal accounts and companies—a big no-no in Missouri, which requires that candidates file papers after you've spent just $500 on your race.
The report also contains evidence supporting that felony charge Greitens faces for using his non-profit organization's donor list for political fundraising.
The trial for the felony invasion of privacy charge is slated to begin May 14—four days before the legislature convenes to consider Greitens' ouster.
● PA-Gov: Republican Scott Wagner's new TV spot accuses Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf of wanting to raise taxes before leaning into his own background as a "garbageman" who signs paychecks and takes notice of deductions. "You won't always agree with me," warns the "blunt, outspoken, and determined" candidate before assuring viewers that he's "on a mission" to cut taxes. No word yet on the size of the buy.
House
● IA-03: Democrat Pete D'Alessandro is up with his first TV ad in the three-way primary to take on Republican David Young. But D'Alessandro's hardly the star of his ad; instead, the entire 30 seconds (less the required disclaimer at the end) consists of Bernie Sanders extolling the congressional candidate's various virtues. Sanders touts D'Alessandro's work on his Iowa campaign and lists the various progressive priorities in which both men are in sync: refusing corporate PAC money, supporting equal pay for women, paid family leave, and Medicare for all. There's no word yet on the size of the buy.
● KY-06: Democrat Jim Gray has a new minute-long TV spot focused on the opioid epidemic. A mother's emotional story about the loss of her son to an overdose segues into on-screen text describing Gray's work to combat the problem as mayor of Lexington. The grieving mother goes on to express her faith in Gray taking the battle to Congress because "he really cares." No word yet on the size of the buy.
● NY-24: On Thursday, New York's Board of Elections ruled that Juanita Perez Williams has qualified for next month's Democratic primary, signing off on recommendations issued earlier in the week by an advisory panel. As before, supporters of Perez Williams' rival for the nomination, Dana Balter, say they may continue their challenge in court.
● PA-07: Oh puke. You might have figured No Labels was in it for the bland, corporatist centrism of pundit fantasy—you know, free trade deals, charter schools, "tax reform," but hey, gay marriage!—yet instead they seem to have migrated all the way toward thuggish white resentment politics: screw immigrants, to hell with reproductive rights, but (some) unions = okay. How else to explain their support for Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli, a xenophobic conservative Democrat who calls himself "pro-life", said the Democratic Party "has become the de facto party for illegal immigration," and even dreamed of serving in the Trump administration?
So far, a No Labels affiliate, United Together, has spent $65,000 on mailers attacking the two most notable mainstream Democrats in the race, Pastor Greg Edwards and former Allentown city solicitor Susan Wild. Strangely, though, the Washington Post's Dave Weigel reports that No Labels has refused to comment about their involvement in the race, much as they remained quiet about their work earlier this year on behalf of another anti-choice Democrat, Illinois Rep. Dan Lipinski. What, they're not proud to back Morganelli?
Unfortunately, Morganelli remains the best-known candidate in the race, according to a new Muhlenberg College poll. The survey only tested the general election, not the primary, but among all voters, only 37 percent haven't heard of him, while Wild is unknown to 51 percent and Edwards 59 percent. We have to hope that Democratic primary voters like Morganelli less than the overall electorate does.
As for the general election, Democrats dominate. In a generic ballot matchup, Democrats beat Republicans by a resounding 46-35 margin, and when the three main candidates are paired against the two leading Republicans, Marty Nothstein and Dean Browning, they lead by anywhere from 40-33 (Edwards over Nothstein) to 46-28 (Morganelli vs. Browning). Numbers like these show that Pennsylvania's 7th District could readily elect a progressive Democrat, which would make it a true shame if it winds up with the likes of Morganelli instead.
● PA-10: EMILY's List has endorsed former Obama administration staffer Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson in Pennsylvania's 10th District, where she's vying with scientist Eric Ding and a few other Democrats in the May 15 primary for the right to take on GOP Rep. Scott Perry.
● PA-14: Hehehe. Republican state Sen. Guy Reschenthaler is slamming his primary opponent in a new TV ad, and if your primary opponent is Rick Saccone, well, you know what you're going to slam him for. Reschenthaler's narrator sneers, "Saccone already lost a safe Republican seat. Even President Trump called Saccone 'weak.'" Fact-check: entirely true!
● SC-04: On behalf of GOPAC, Republican pollster National Research has surveyed the June 12 GOP primary to replace retiring GOP Rep. Trey Gowdy in South Carolina's 4th District. Their poll still shows most voters are undecided, with state Sen. Lee Bright and former Spartanburg County GOP chair Josh Kimbrell advancing to a June 26 runoff with 13 percent and 7 percent, respectively. State Rep. Dan Hamilton and state Sen. William Timmons each took 5 percent.
● TX-05: State Rep. Lance Gooden has released his first TV ad ahead of the May 22 GOP runoff in Texas' 5th Congressional District, featuring a group of seniors having a rambling conversation around a dining table making repeated punny references to the candidate's last name by talking about how he's "good" on their favorite issues (like being "pro-life" and anti-tax).
Gooden faces fundraiser Bunni Pounds, who doesn't appear to have gone back on the airwaves yet, though the Club for Growth has spent about $160,000 to support her. However, a new super PAC called Our Conservative Texas Future has shelled out $295,000 on behalf of Gooden, and the National Association of Realtors has also chipped in $43,000 to aid his cause in this dark red district.
● TX-21: We missed his original announcement, but retiring Republican Rep. Lamar Smith is unsurprisingly supporting former Ted Cruz chief of staff Chip Roy to be his successor in the May 22 GOP primary runoff against perennial candidate Matt McCall for this red-leaning seat, which spans from Austin to San Antonio and includes several rural counties to their west. Roy finished first in the initial March primary with a 27-17 edge over McCall.