The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Redistricting: On Monday, the Supreme Court released its long-awaited decisions in two major lawsuits arguing that electoral maps in Maryland and Wisconsin represented partisan gerrymanders that violated the Constitution, but in both cases, the justices declined to rule on the merits and instead sent both cases back to the lower courts on procedural grounds.
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In the Maryland case, Benisek v. Lamone, the court let a Republican-backed challenge to the state's 6th Congressional district proceed in federal district court without adjudicating the substance of plaintiffs' claims that Maryland's map, which was created by Democrats, violates the First Amendment.
Meanwhile, in Gill v. Whitford, the Supreme Court vacated a lower court ruling that struck down Wisconsin's GOP-drawn map of the state Assembly, finding that the Democratic voters who sued lacked standing—meaning they had not demonstrated their rights had been injured—to challenge the map on a statewide basis.
The Supreme Court's move will now require plaintiffs to present new arguments before the district court. One option would be to challenge the map on a district-by-district basis, though such an approach is inherently more difficult for a variety of reasons. It's also possible that different plaintiffs could demonstrate that they have standing to bring a statewide challenge. In particular, election law expert Rick Hasen has suggested the Supreme Court's ruling might allow Wisconsin's Democratic Party to challenge the map as a whole.
These cases are far from over, and they could eventually find their way back before the high court. They're also not alone: There's an outstanding case in which a lower court struck down North Carolina's congressional map as a Republican gerrymander that could make its way before the court when it returns in the fall and presents the justices with a different set of facts and legal arguments to choose from.
These rulings are a disappointment to reformers, but they by no means represent the kind of defeat that many feared in the fight for fair maps. Nevertheless, they're a reminder that gerrymandering foes can't rely only on the courts to curb the worst excesses of partisan gerrymandering. Progressives need to win elections at the state level to break the GOP's grip on power, and activists must use ballot initiatives to create redistricting commissions where possible.
Senate
● FL-Sen: Republican Gov. Rick Scott's latest ad cynically claims that it's Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson who is the one making nasty attacks, even though Scott and his allies have already dumped eight-figures worth on ads bashing Nelson. Indeed, even Scott's latest offering makes sure to hammer Nelson for being in office for more than four decades, arguing it's time for a change.
● IN-Sen: Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly has launched his first TV ad opposing Republican nominee Mike Braun, which the campaign says is part of a "six-figure, statewide buy." Donnelly references a recent spot from Braun’s allies at the Senate Leadership Fund when he bemoans what he calls Braun's false attacks, claiming he "hasn't worked at the Indiana printing company for 20 years." The narrator says Donnelly has voted against every bad trade deal but Braun has made millions in business by relying on "importing cheap foreign auto parts."
● MO-Sen: Polling on behalf of the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, the Global Strategy Group has surveyed Missouri's Senate race between Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and state Attorney General Josh Hawley, the likely Republican nominee. Their poll gives McCaskill a 47-41 lead, which is an improvement from their previously unreleased April poll where she led by just 46-44.
● WI-Sen: On behalf of Restoration PAC, which is supporting businessman Kevin Nicholson, the firm Hodas & Associates is out with a poll of the August GOP primary that gives Nicholson a 28-14 lead against state Sen. Leah Vukmir. Most polling in this contest has found Nicholson ahead, but that could be due to most of those polls coming from Nicholson's campaign itself. Vukmir recently released a poll giving Nicholson a smaller 32-30 edge, while her allies at the super PAC Wisconsin Next PAC dropped a poll showing her ahead 36-29.
Meanwhile, Vukmir has released her first TV ad ahead of the August primary, and it features her sitting at a dining room table with a gun before her. Vukmir claims she received death threats from "the left" (which we hear as purported answering machine messages) when she and GOP Gov. Scott Walker pushed through anti-union laws, cut taxes for the rich, and defunded Planned Parenthood. While the Associated Press characterizes the ad's voicemails as a "recreation," Vukmir's campaign provided no evidence backing up her claim that she'd ever received threatening phone calls, and a spokesman wouldn't say whether Vukmir had even reported any threats to the police.
● WV-Sen: The Democratic group Duty and Honor recently began an ad campaign, and we now know the size of the buy is $449,000.
Gubernatorial
● MD-Gov: Campaign finance reports covering the period of May 16 to June 10 are in, giving us one last look at each candidate's spending heading into next week's Democratic primary. Helpfully, the Baltimore Sun breaks down how much each candidate spent on media buys during this time.
Attorney Jim Shea spent a hefty $900,000 on ads and had $565,000 left for the home stretch. However, recent polls have all found Shea taking no more than 6 percent of the vote. Most surveys have found Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker and former NAACP head Ben Jealous locked in a tight contest, but Jealous is very much ahead in campaign spending. Jealous outspent Baker $550,000 to $385,000 on media during this time, and he had a $385,000 to $245,000 cash-on-hand edge.
State Sen. Richard Madaleno spent $185,000 on ads, but he had just $16,000 left for the homestretch. Krish Vignarajah, a former policy director to Michelle Obama, spent only $6,000 on media but had $500,000 left, and she says she's launched a late $290,000 ad buy. Finally, former State Department official Alec Ross and spent $65,000, and he had $181,000 left.
Whomever emerges from the primary will be in for a very expensive general election with GOP Gov. Larry Hogan, who had $9.4 million in the bank.
● MI-Gov: GOP Lt. Gov. Brain Calley is out with a new TV spot that features praise from two women, Kaylee Lorincz and Rachael Denhollander, who were sexually abused by disgraced former physician Larry Nassar. Lorincz tells the audience that "while some politicians grandstanded, Brian Calley listened." The spot also shows footage of Denhollander praising Calley's leadership and for "working for needed reform." Lorincz concludes by saying that if Calley is this effective as lieutenant governor, "just imagine what he can do as our governor."
● NY-Gov: Unbelievable: After spending more than a year considering running for various higher offices as a Democrat, former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner has announced she will run for governor on a third-party banner instead of challenging Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the primary. Miner had been a highly sought-after recruit for the GOP-held 24th Congressional District and some progressives had wanted her to primary Cuomo from the left, but she has instead decided to form her own party to get on the ballot under New York election law.
While Miner's decision could make it easier for actress and activist Cynthia Nixon to challenge Cuomo in the Democratic primary without having to worry about splitting the vote among those opposed to the incumbent, her third-party campaign could complicate things in the general election. It's hard to see Miner gaining enough traction to actually have much of a chance to win in such an expensive state, but she could draw substantial protest votes in the general election, especially if Cuomo wins renomination.
Nevertheless, New York's dark-blue lean and the pro-Democratic national climate mean even having a third-party progressive siphoning off votes in the general election may not be enough for likely Republican nominee Marc Molinaro to have much of a shot. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Safe Democratic, but there's been no polling testing Miner as a third-party candidate, and it remains to be seen whether her candidacy could make the general election competitive.
● OH-Gov: Fundraising reports in Ohio's gubernatorial contest are now available for the period of April 19 through June 8, and Republican state Attorney General Mike DeWine continues to hold a big financial advantage over Democratic nominee Richard Cordray. DeWine raised $3.1 million during the period and finished with $7.2 million in the bank. Cordray took in $2.7 million during this time, and he had $2.6 million left over.
● SC-Gov: The GOP firm the Trafalgar Group has polled South Carolina's June 26 Republican primary runoff, which they said was not on behalf of any particular client. Their survey gives Gov. Henry McMaster a 60-31 lead over businessman John Warren, which is a major improvement from his 42-28 edge in last month's primary if accurate. Both of the third and fourth place finishers have endorsed Warren, but time is quickly running out for him to consolidate their supporters.
However, Warren did get an endorsement on Monday from Rep. Ralph Norman, who previously backed third-place finisher Catherine Templeton.
House
● FL-27: On Monday, Hillary Clinton endorsed Donna Shalala, who ran the Clinton Foundation after her stint as president of the University of Miami.
● IL-06: Republican Rep. Peter Roskam is putting $165,000 behind his first TV ad, which will air on cable. There's no copy of the ad available yet.
● MD-06: If liquor store magnate David Trone doesn't win next week's Democratic primary for this 55-40 Clinton seat, it probably won't be because he was too stingy with his fortune. Trone contributed $10.3 million of his own money to his campaign through June 6, and he added another $1.2 million last week. That means that, even adjusting for inflation, Trone has already spent more of his own money on a House race than any candidate in American history but one. That candidate is… David Trone, who spent $13.4 million in 2016 in the neighboring 8th District, where he lost the primary 34-27 to now-Rep. Jamie Raskin.
Trone's main rival is Del. Aruna Miller, who has the support of EMILY's List, the influential Maryland State Education Association, and Ike Leggett, the executive of voter-rich Montgomery County. Trone outspent her $5.4 million to $561,000 from April 1 to June 6 (which the FEC defines as the pre-primary period), though Miller still may have deployed enough money to get her message out in the very expensive Washington media market. Miller also had $556,000 left for the final weeks of the contest.
By contrast, state Sen. Roger Manno spent only $34,000 during this time. Physician Nadia Hashimi did not file her pre-primary report by Monday even though the deadline to do so was Thursday evening.
● MI-09, MI-11, MI-13: The state AFL-CIO has made endorsements in three competitive August Democratic primaries. In the open 9th District, they're siding with attorney Andy Levin, while they're backing state Rep. Tim Greimel in the open and competitive 11th District; AFSCME also recently endorsed this pair. In the safely blue 13th, where AFSCME did not make an endorsement, the AFL-CIO is supporting Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones. Jones already has Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan in her corner in this crowded contest.
● MN-05: On Sunday, state Rep. Ilhan Omar won the party endorsement ahead of the August primary for this safely blue seat. Omar defeated state Sen. Patricia Torres Ray 68-24 on the second ballot, while former state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and engineer Jamal Abdulahi did not compete at the endorsement convention.
Party endorsements are usually very valuable in Minnesota, but there's reason to think it won't matter here as much as it normally might. While politicians are often willing to drop out of the race if they lose the party endorsement, both Omar and Torres Ray said before the delegates voted that they would stay in the race no matter what. Many local Democrats, including former Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, also were angry that the special convention was called with only a week's notice and held on Father's Day, which they argued limited participation.
● NY-11: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has launched an ad buy for Rep. Dan Donovan ahead of next week's GOP primary. The ad begins with a picture of Donovan with Trump as the narrator explains that Trump endorsed him because the incumbent is "a true conservative, a fighter for New York." There is no word on the size of the buy.
● NY-24: The DCCC has launched a coordinated ad buy with former Syracuse Corporation Counsel Juanita Perez Williams ahead of next week's primary. In one 15-second spot, Perez Williams describes how she was passed over for a promotion in the Navy because she was pregnant, "so I know a president who doesn't believe in equal pay for women in a problem." In the other commercial, which is also 15 seconds, Perez Williams declares that she believes in a woman's right to choose, and a president who doesn't is also a problem. There is no word on the size of the buy.
Perez Williams is facing off with activist Dana Balter for the right to take on GOP Rep. John Katko. Balter outspent Perez Williams $83,000 to $51,000 during the pre-primary period and had a $101,000 to $56,000 cash-on-hand lead for the homestretch, though VoteVets has spent close to $250,000 for Perez Williams. Last week, Siena released a poll giving Perez Williams a 45-32 lead in the primary.
● OH-12: The GOP pollster JMC Analytics gives Republican Troy Balderson a 46-35 lead over Democrat Danny O'Connor in the August special election. The results aren't too different from Monmouth, which gave Team Red a 43-33 lead among registered voters last week (their two likely voter models gave him a 9 and 7-point edge). The only other poll we've seen of the general election is a PPP survey for the pro-O'Connor End Citizens United, which found Balderson up by a smaller 45-43 a month ago.
The GOP isn't taking any chances here, and the Congressional Leadership Fund has added $204,000 to their ad buy. This takes their total investment to just shy of $500,000 so far.
● SC-04: Former state Sen. Lee Bright is up with his first GOP runoff ad ahead of next week's contest with state Sen. William Timmons for this safely red seat. The spot begins with a clip of Sean Hannity declaring there's a "political revolution underway," with the narrator pitching Bright as a fellow revolutionary and Trump ally. The commercial continues by asserting that, while Bright is against the establishment and for building Trump's wall, Timmons "supported pro-amnesty politicians, voted to fund Planned Parenthood," and said he "had 'major issues' with many things Trump does."
Last week, Bright led the crowded primary field with 25 percent of the vote, while Timmons edged state Rep. Dan Hamilton 19.2-18.6 for second. An automatic recount was held on Friday, and Timmons kept the exact 349-vote lead over Hamilton he went in with.
