Tennessee voters go to the polls Thursday (the state has held election days on Thursday since 1796, and no one's really sure why) for their party primaries. The big race to watch will be the four-way GOP contest for governor, and we have several House primaries in store. It only takes a simple plurality to win the nomination in Tennessee.
The polls close at 8 PM ET/7 PM CT. Our guide to the key races to watch Tuesday is below, and join us at Daily Kos Elections that night for our liveblog of all of the races on the docket. You can also follow us on Twitter, where we'll be live-tweeting the results.
● TN-Gov (R & D): GOP Gov. Bill Haslam is termed-out, and four noteworthy Republicans are competing to succeed him. Rep. Diane Black and businessman Randy Boyd, a former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, have both been heavily self-funding. Businessman and former Higher Education Commission member Bill Lee and state House Speaker Beth Harwell have also poured millions of dollars into their campaigns, though not to the extent that Black and Boyd have.
While Black, who picked up Mike Pence's endorsement a week before Election Day, initially had the lead in the polls, things have become quite unpredictable in the final weeks of the race. Three surveys have been released since late June, and Black, Boyd, and Lee have each led in one. While Boyd and Black spent weeks mostly attacking one another, each of them began running more commercials against Lee late in the contest, which could mean they think that he's surging at just the right time. The three candidates have consistently ignored Harwell, though, and she's had trouble registering in the polls.
While Tennessee is a very red state, Democrats hope they'll have an opening here in the fall. Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean has decisively outspent state House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh and likely began the contest with far more name-recognition, but we don’t have much polling out of this race.
● TN-02 (R) (65-30 Trump, 67-31 Romney): Longtime GOP Rep. Jimmy Duncan is retiring from a Knoxville-area seat that hasn't elected a Democrat since 1852, and there's little question it will remain red. Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett, who was preparing to challenge Duncan before he retired, is a longtime politician in the Knoxville area, and he began the contest as the frontrunner.
However, Duncan is backing state Rep. Jimmy Matlock, who has run commercials taking Burchett to task for a critical 2005 vote from his time in the state Senate to keep chamber's longtime Democratic leader in charge even though the GOP had just won a one-seat majority. Matlock owns an eponymous tire business as well, which gives him some nonpolitical name recognition in the area. From July 1 to July 13 (which the FEC defines as the pre-primary period), Matlock also outspent Burchett by a wide $203,000 to $88,000 margin.
The two other candidates to watch are businessman Jason Emert and Tennessee Air National Guard Lt. Col. Ashley Nickloes. Emert, who also serves as chair of the Young Republicans National Federation, spent $102,000 during the pre-primary period. Nickloes, who was deployed in the Middle East until April, spent just $52,000, but a group close to the GOP establishment called the Republican Main Street Partnership has spent $100,000 on ads to support her.
● TN-06 (R) (73-24 Trump, 69-30 Romney): GOP Rep. Diane Black is leaving safely red Middle Tennessee seat, which includes part of the Nashville suburbs and more rural areas, and Team Red should have little trouble keeping it. The primary has turned into an expensive fight between two wealthy candidates, businessman and former agriculture commissioner John Rose and former Chancery Court Judge Bob Corlew.
Rose outspent Corlew $410,000 to $342,000 during the pre-primary period, and he had a much larger war chest left over for the final days of the contest. Both candidates have run ads attacking the other's loyalty to the GOP while ignoring the third notable candidate, underfunded state Rep. Judd Matheny.
● TN-08 (R) (66-31 Trump, 66-33 Romney): Last cycle, now-Rep. David Kustoff won a crowded a 13-way GOP primary 27-23 against wealthy radiologist George Flinn, who is seeking a rematch this year. The last time Flinn last won a race was when he was re-elected to the Shelby County Commission without opposition in 2006, and since then, he's lost five elections in a row despite pouring his fortune into his races. Flinn is once again investing heavily into his campaign, and he outspent Kustoff $1 million to $277,000 during the pre-primary period. However, Trump tweeted out his support for Kustoff on Friday.
Despite Flinn's poor track record, Kustoff seems to be taking him seriously. After Flinn went up with a commercial accusing Kustoff of voting "with Nancy Pelosi to fund Planned Parenthood," and the incumbent responded by arguing that Flinn's businesses had "profited off Planned Parenthood and ran ads promoting Planned Parenthood." This seat, which includes suburban Memphis and nearby rural areas, is safely red.