Texas is a sort of a Democratic great white whale. By all demographic indications, the state should be blue, or at least competitively purple. Yet the core Republican base (older white racist males) are far more likely to turn out and vote than the single women, young people, and people of color that make up the Democratic base. So cycle after cycle, we get our hopes up that demographic changes will help us capture the state, and yet that football gets pulled back, Lucy-and-Charlie Brown-style, every Election Day.
Yet there are strong indications that real change is finally underway. Mitt Romney won Texas by 16 points in 2012, but Donald Trump managed only a single-digit, 9-point victory in 2016. Suburban voters in Texas had already started abandoning the GOP, a trend that has accelerated across the country over the last two years as Trump continues to alienate suburban white women. As a result, what should’ve been an easy re-election contest for Republican a-hole Ted Cruz, thanks to a stellar campaign by Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, is now within the ... let’s call it “within the margin of turnout”:
This is why Daily Kos is so freakin’ proud to be endorsing Beto O’Rourke’s campaign, making this seat one of our marquee targets this cycle.
Want to get rid of Ted Cruz? Donate $3 to Beto O’Rourke today!
Let’s count the ways winning this race would be unbelievably amazing:
- Ted Cruz would be out of the Senate! Sure, he’d get a job running some Koch brothers outfit, or the NRA or something, but anything would be better than having him in the Senate.
- It would boost Democratic chances to take control of the Senate. Democrats need two seats to take the majority. We’re looking good in Arizona and Nevada. But after that, the pickings get slim. Tennessee is an outside possibility. Meanwhile, Democrats need to hold seats in brutal red territory, including West Virginia, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, and North Dakota. Our endangered incumbents thus far appear to be holding their own, but by adding Texas to the Democratic column, it would give us the ability to lose one of those red-state seats and still win the majority. And Ted Cruz would be out of the Senate.
- It forces Republicans to spend money in an expensive state. And while Republicans have a lot of money, there’s a limit. Money spent here is money that isn’t spent in our endangered red-state seats. And if the money issue bleeds Republicans dry and they lose this seat? Ted Cruz would be out of the Senate.
- Did I mention that Ted Cruz would be out of the Senate? I did? Good. I’ll say it again.
- Beto would bolster our southern-state Democratic ranks. Right now they number one, Alabama’s Doug Jones. We can build a functional Democratic majority outside the South. But if we genuinely force Republicans to compete in the South, they will truly be f’d for a long time. And Ted Cruz would be out of the Senate.
- Beto is a legit Democrat. This is no compromise candidate, where we make a deal with the devil for a fighting chance in hostile territory. O’Rourke is a legit progressive. And while he may not wind up voting as consistently well as blue-state Democrats, his record will be solid—worlds better than Ted Cruz, who, you may have noticed, would be out of the Senate.
When I first looked at Civiqs numbers on the race, I was blown away.
And Beto … I didn’t want to believe Politico’s, “Beto-mania sweeps Texas.” But a look at our Civiqs Texas data (which we poll for our own use, not for any client), and holy shit, it’s real!
At the time, we were sitting on a polling limb. Politifact even fact-checked us.
Since then, other pollsters have confirmed the competitiveness of the contest. This is a legit race! And while we have to look at Beto as an underdog (this is Texas, after all—remember Lucy’s football), it’s close enough at this point that it will come down to who turns out and who stays home. And right now, it’s Democrats who appear the most fired up. In fact, I’d love to hear from you Longhorns in the comments!
But, as always, the more cash Beto has, the better his ability to find and turn out his voters. So whether we get rid of Ted Cruz or not is, in part, up to us. This race will be close enough, that you—as an individual—can help make it happen!
Please give $3 today to help Beto O’Rourke give the boot to Ted Cruz!