The passage of Labor Day brings with it the symbolic “kickoff” of more than just the 2018 football season. It also kicks off the stretch run of the election campaign season, as we are now less than 10 weeks from Election Day. What’s more—within a week of this piece landing on your screen, we will be done with the primary election season (excluding Louisiana, of course, which has preserved its unique electoral system by declaring the federal Election Day in November as their “primary” election).
With that in mind, it’s time to take our first look, now that the November field has largely been set, at the states which will be the most likely to occupy your attention come Election Night.
Before we do so, though, there are a few caveats. First of all, this is not to imply that these are the only states worthy of your attention come November. This is just an exercise in letting the election enthusiast with a national perspective know, on balance, which states have the largest array of competitive races. Some of the most intriguing individual races on deck for Election Night 2018 are not being held in states that made the top 10 here.
It is also not meant to be exclusionary. Even states that, by our metric, scored a perfect zero still have an array of competitive state legislative races, or local elections, worthy of your attention if you live there. Any election matters, of course, if it is in your backyard. So even the state that, by this metric, comes in 50th place across the country should be on the radar of the residents in that state. The fact that the state’s election docket might not intrigue someone 1,500 miles away does nothing to change that.
Last, but not least, let’s lay out the criteria. The list of “places to watch” was crafted by utilizing a point system that takes into account our Daily Kos Elections race ratings for 2018. For statewide elections (U.S. Senate/governor), a tossup race was awarded 10 points, a race “leaning” to one party was awarded 6 points, and a race viewed as “likely” to be won by a party was awarded 3 points. For U.S. House races, races with those designations were awarded 4 points (tossup), 2 points (leaning), or a single point (likely). As an added piece of the criteria, and a nod to a series of races that we obviously find important here at DKE, state legislatures that were within range of flipping to the out-party were also taken into consideration, with legislative houses within 5 percent (in terms of total seats) of flipping being awarded 5 points, and those within 10 percent of flipping being awarded 2 points.
Before we delve into the top 10, let’s look at the ones that just missed the cut.
As noted earlier, there were a handful of states that, for now, have no competitive federal or gubernatorial races, and whose legislative majority simply isn’t in doubt. Thus, they were awarded zero points in our inaugural ranking here. Those states are: Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Massachusetts, and Wyoming. Of the five, Louisiana is far and away the least likely to register a point. They have no U.S. Senate election this cycle, their gubernatorial and state legislative races aren’t until 2019, and any U.S. House races that wind up becoming real contests won’t be settled in November, anyway.
But some of these other states could find themselves moving up the list, in theory. We had a poll earlier in the summer in Idaho showing one of the state’s two House races as modestly competitive, for example.
In ascending order from the least amount of points to the most, here are the other other states that failed to make the top 10:
Arkansas (2), Nebraska (2), Utah (2), Vermont (2), Alabama (3), Maryland (3), Mississippi (3), Oklahoma (3), South Dakota (3), Kentucky (4), South Carolina (4), Delaware (5), Alaska (6), Rhode Island (6), North Carolina (7), Oregon (7), Virginia (7), Georgia (8), New Hampshire (9), Tennessee (9), New Mexico (10), North Dakota (10), Kansas (11), Missouri (11), Illinois (12), Indiana (12), New Jersey (12), West Virginia (12), Montana (13), Texas (17), Colorado (18), Iowa (18), New York (18), Washington (18), Pennsylvania (20)
Which, of course, leaves us with our top 10. One would fully expect, though, that by the beginning of October, this list will be shaken up, and perhaps considerably. But the top 10 is an interesting array of smaller states with pivotal matchups, and larger states that forced their way onto the list with sheer volume.
NINTH PLACE (TIED)—connecticut and wisconsin (21 points)
Connecticut muscled its way into the top 10, in part, on having the only tied state legislative body in America at the moment. The Connecticut state Senate is tied 18-18. Democrats hold the nominal majority, since ties in the chamber are broken by the state’s lieutenant governor, who is a Democrat. Several seats are open, including a Democratic-held seat in a district that split 48-48 between Trump and Clinton last year. Aside from that race, Connecticut has a competitive open gubernatorial race on tap, as well as a state House where only a 5-seat gain for the Republicans in a 151-seat chamber would flip the majority to the GOP.
In Wisconsin, meanwhile, the big story is the governor’s race. Scott Walker is seeking yet another term, and Daily Kos Elections recently moved the race to tossup status amid a flurry of solid polls for Democratic challenger Tony Evers and Walker’s own insistence that his continued tenure as governor is imperiled. Aside from Walker-Evers, there is a competitive open-seat race to replace outgoing Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin seeking her second term, and a state Senate that was viewed as a tough get for Democrats until an upset win in a summer special election in a state Senate district carried by Trump 56-39.
EIGHTH PLACE—MICHIGAN (22 points)
If we go by intuition instead of numbers, Michigan feels like one of those states that could be a very big deal on Election Night for the Democrats. On paper, for example, the state legislative balance of power in Michigan seems secure, with Republicans holding pretty solid majorities (63-47 in the House, 27-11 in the Senate). But there are so many potentially competitive races, based on past performance and the presidential numbers in each district, that it is not crazy talk to suggest both chambers could be in play by November.
Meanwhile, five of the state’s 14 congressional races are in varying stages of competitiveness, and the Democrats are increasingly confident about picking off the state’s governorship, especially given the tepid response of the current Republican governor to the GOP’s nominee to replace him.
SEVENTH PLACE—OHIO (23 points)
After the past two electoral cycles, Ohio had appeared to take on a very definitive shade of red. After Trump easily won the state in 2016 and the Republicans moved to a dominant position in the state’s federal and state legislative delegations, the GOP was practically salivating at the prospect of knocking off Sen. Sherrod Brown in the 2018 cycle. Instead, as has been the case elsewhere in the Great Lakes region politically, there seems to have been an ebb in the Trumpian tide in Ohio.
Brown (thus far) is in far better shape than anyone anticipated, and it is the GOP standard-bearer for governor, former Sen. Mike DeWine, who looks vulnerable in polling against Democratic nominee Richard Cordray. What’s more: even though the GOP managed to cling to Pat Tiberi’s old seat in last month’s special election, a one-point win in a district Trump carried by 11 points will not inspire much confidence in Ohio GOP headquarters. And while a rematch there will be a tough task for the Democrats, the GOP has to defend a far-less amenable patch of turf in Southern Ohio held by longtime incumbent Rep. Steve Chabot.
SIXTH PLACE—MAINE (24 points)
Maine is a classic example of how contrasting forces have made a swing state. The lurch toward the GOP in the northern tier of the state is absolutely unmistakeable, and gave Donald Trump the novelty of snaring one of the state’s four electoral votes when he easily carried the more rural 2nd district. But the Portland area, and other communities in the state’s southern reaches, remained blue enough to give Hillary Clinton a very narrow edge here (48-45).
This has made Maine incredibly competitive, as the state was one of the few that scored a perfect 10 points for its state legislative balance of power (both chambers—the House led by the Democrats and the Senate led by the Republicans—are very much in play in November). In addition, it has a tossup race for governor, and arguably one of the most intriguing House races in the country, as two-term GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin, who turned the 2nd district to the Republicans for the first time in two decades, seeks to hang onto the seat against a strong challenge from Democrat Jared Golden, whose military tattoos, of all things, became a campaign issue earlier in the cycle.
FIFTH PLACE—ARIZONA (25 points)
There was a time—and it really wasn’t that long ago!—when Arizona likely would not have been on our political radar. The state had been long defined as a red state, and even when presidential elections started getting closer here as the state grew a bit younger and much more diverse, the state remained fairly reliable for the GOP downballot. Those days seem to be gone.
Democrats are no worse than 50/50 to claim their first Senate seat out of Arizona since Dennis DeConcini retired in 1994. They also have more than a puncher’s chance to knock off incumbent GOP Gov. Doug Ducey, as college professor David Garcia is looking quite competitive in early polling. And while both the federal and state legislative picture is still a little murky post-primary, the fact that Republicans could only barely hold onto a ruby-red district like AZ-08 (western Phoenix suburbs) has to give the Democrats a modicum of optimism.
The wildcard in this state, as with many others in the Southwest, is how the Latino vote will behave. Motivation is always a concern, but the Democrats probably got a boost, unwelcome as it was, when the GOP nominated a candidate for Secretary of State who built his campaign around the notion of halting the printing of Spanish-language ballots in his state where one-fifth of the population is Spanish speaking.
FOURTH place—minnesota (26 points)
Some of you might be reading this and thinking to yourselves, “Minnesota?!” To which the only proper answer is: you’re damned right, Minnesota. Pound for pound, there might not be a greater volume of competitive races in America anywhere else. Minnesota has a competitive open-seat gubernatorial race being defended by the Democrats (which might’ve remained a tossup had former GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty survived the primary). In addition, there is also a potentially competitive Senate race where appointed Sen. Tina Smith faces the voters for the first time as senator since she took over Al Franken’s seat late last year. Heck, if the narrow GOP state Senate majority (one seat!) was up for re-election this year, Minnesota would’ve been top two!
And then there are the House races. If there is a potential Democratic vulnerability in what is otherwise shaping up to be an incredibly solid Democratic year, it is in Minnesota. Here, Democrats must defend two open seats on turf that swung sharply to Donald Trump at the presidential level, and came within an eyelash of being won by Republican House candidates against strong Democratic incumbents in 2016. On paper? A very tall order. But the electoral headwinds for the GOP, coupled with the fact that one of those outgoing incumbents (southern Minnesota Rep. Tim Walz) is at the top of the ballot running for governor, may save the Dems here. And if they managed to hold these seats, there are a pair of attractive targets in the House for them, as well (incumbents Jason Lewis and Erik Paulsen).
THIRD PLACE—CALIFORNIA (28 points)
The Golden State’s open governorship looks likely to go to Democrat Gavin Newsom by a comfortable margin. The GOP didn’t even make the top two in the state’s U.S. Senate race, leaving Democratic veteran Sen. Dianne Feinstein to be challenged by another Democrat: state legislator Kevin DeLeon. And neither chamber of the state legislature is even remotely in doubt, as the Democrats have enormous majorities in both, and the only intrigue is whether or not the Democrats earn veto-proof supermajorities. So how did California wind up all the way up here in the third spot?
The simple answer, and it is not hyperbole: if the Democrats are to seize the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, they’ll need to earn it through California. There are (count ‘em!) eight competitive GOP-held seats in the state, meaning that the majority of the state’s Republican delegation is endangered heading into Election Day. And, if anything, the picture keeps getting worse for the GOP, as one of their less-vulnerable Californians (second-generation Rep. Duncan Hunter) has found himself quite indicted over the past month, and each new revelation seems to make the case worse and worse. And, as a result, Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar went from a long shot to a guy who now has internal polling showing a dead heat.
SECOND place—nevada (29 points)
A credible case could be made that the most reliable bellwether state in the Union may well be out in the western desert. Nevada was a killing field for the Democrats in 2014, a painful symbol of an Election Night gone terribly wrong. Nevada came very close to tracking to the national average in terms of the presidential election results in 2016, as well.
And, come November, a lot of the story of Election Night will be told in Nevada. Start with a must-win Democratic pickup opportunity in the U.S. Senate, where incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller is being challenged by Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen. Follow that with a coin-flip open-seat gubernatorial election where popular Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval has explicitly decided to stay out of the race between Republican Adam Laxalt and Democrat Steve Sisolak. There are two Democratic-held U.S. House seats that could turn competitive if Democratic turnout flags even slightly. And, to top it off, the Democratic majority in the state Senate is razor-thin (though, in their favor, the class of 2014 is up this year, and Republicans have few enticing prospects). The year could’ve been even more intriguing, but a rather cynical Republican recall effort against two Democrats elected in 2016 failed to launch in the spring. All the same—come November, as Nevada’s pre-eminent political writer Jon Ralston might say: the Silver State matters.
FIRST PLACE—FLORIDA (33 points)
It could’ve been no other, right? It seems like as long as we’ve been tallying the most competitive states in the Union here at DKE, the Sunshine State has lurked somewhere in the top three. The tossup nature of the state (five of the last seven presidential elections there have been decided by margins of 2.8 percentage points or less), coupled with the size of the state, makes it a perennial top 10 finisher on a metric like this.
And this year? In a nod to the immortal Spinal Tap, Florida takes it to 11. The marquee race is a U.S. Senate showdown that is a relatively rare incumbent vs. incumbent battle, as Sen. Bill Nelson is challenged by Gov. Rick Scott. Scott leaves a governor’s seat open, and the battle is an ideological duel for our times, as a true-believing MAGA all-star (Republican Ron DeSantis) goes head-to-head with progressive Andrew Gillum (endorsed recently by Daily Kos). Downballot, Florida ties California for the lead with a total of eight races at some level of competitiveness. Add to that a state Senate with at least a puncher’s chance of flipping to the Democrats, and you have yourself a state that closes early, but will tell us a great deal about how the night is progressing for both parties.