After my post-Partisan Voting Index series hiatus, I decided to write a similar analysis on the Central Coast and Southern California to see if anything pops out to me that is contrary to conventional wisdom. I scratched the surface with Orange County 3 years ago and am going to go deeper here. I will analyze all 10 counties, beginning with San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey. Then I will do Santa Barbara and Ventura, skip over to San Bernardino, and go clockwise ending with Los Angeles. Los Angeles is the most populous county in the country, so I will split that analysis into multiple diaries.
I will include race/ethnic origin, median household income (MHI), percentage of the population with at least a bachelor’s degree (% Bachelor) and presidential numbers (the Democratic and Republican numbers from 2004 to 2016) for the counties and cities. Having consisted of more than half of the state’s population since 1940, Southern California has many cities and even more unincorporated areas. Analyzing all of them would probably take me until the 2024 election to finish, so I will stick with just the counties and cities.
Demographics (2010): 71.1% Non-Hispanic White, 20.8% Hispanic, 3.0% Asian, 1.9% Black
Population (2018): 284,010
Growth rate: Moderate (15% since 2000)
President: 52.7% R/45.5% D (2004); 51.2% D/45.9% R (2008); 48.6% D/47.6% R (2012); 48.9% D/40.9% R (2016)
MHI (2000): $42,428
% Bachelor’s (2000): 26.7%
On the coast halfway between San Francisco and Los Angeles, San Luis Obispo County leaned Republican for most of the 20th century even as most of the coastal counties moved towards Democrats. San Luis Obispo only began trending Democratic in 2000 and today is the 3rd least Democratic county on the coast after Orange and Del Norte (going by Partisan Voting Index). At only 86 people per square mile, San Luis Obispo is very sparsely populated for Southern California standards. Agriculture, especially wine, is one of the mainstays of the county’s economy. San Luis Obispo produces more wine than any other California county besides Napa and Sonoma.
Demographics (2010): 76.9% Non-Hispanic White, 15.7% Hispanic, 3.2% Asian, 0.7% Black
Population (2018): 18,087
President: 56.7% R, 42.0% D (2004); 50.2% R, 48.0% D (2008); 51.2% R, 46.1% D (2012); 47.5% D, 44.6% R (2016)
MHI (2000): $48,236
% Bachelor’s (2000): 28.2%
The Arroyo Grande Valley had soil that was well-suited for agriculture. Arroyo Grande is Spanish for “wide riverbed”. Part of the Five Cities region of cities grouped on or near the southern coast of San Luis Obispo County, Arroyo Grande developed around local agricultural activities. The city today has a blend of historic, suburban, and rural areas even after rapid growth in the 1970s and 1980s partly thanks to the expansion of a new wastewater treatment plant.
Arroyo Grande was one of the original Five Cities, along with Grover Beach, Oceano, Fair Oaks and Halcyon. Today Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach, Oceano, Pismo Beach, and Shell Beach. Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach, and Pismo Beach are actual cities. Oceano is an unincorporated community and Shell Beach is part of Pismo Beach.
Demographics (2010): 76.8% Non-Hispanic White, 15.6% Hispanic, 2.3% Asian, 1.9% Black
Population (2018): 30,330
President: 58.5% R, 39.7% D (2004); 51.6% R, 46.2% D (2008); 52.3% R, 44.6% D (2012); 48.3% R, 44.0% D (2016)
MHI (2000): $48,725
% Bachelor’s (2000): 20.3%
Atascadero (“bog” in Spanish) was founded in 1913 as a planned colony by magazine publisher Edward Gardner Lewis, who founded University City, Missouri before coming to California. Lewis took the planning in Atascadero very seriously, as he employed experts to help develop the colony so it would reach his population goal of 30,000. The area was laid out with specific purposes for specific areas including many orchards, a water system, and the beginning of a road to Morro Bay. Today, little evidence of the original colony plans remains except in the Rotunda Building, which was built in 1918.
Demographics (2010): 62.3% Non-Hispanic White, 29.2% Hispanic, 4.0% Asian, 0.9% Black
Population (2018): 13,528
President: 50.3% R, 48.0% D (2004); 53.0% D, 44.3% R (2008); 51.7% D, 44.6% R (2012); 50.8% D, 40.7% R (2016)
MHI (2000): $38,087
% Bachelor’s (2000): 19.5%
Grover Beach was originally named Town of Grover after its founder, D. W. Grover. A vote in 1959 allowed for the city to be incorporated as the City of Grover City. Residents felt that the name was redundant, so another vote was held in 1992 to change the name to emphasize its location near the coast. Grover Beach has a higher Hispanic proportion of its population than Arroyo Grande and Atascadero, and its Democratic percentage actually decreased from 2012 to 2016. This is very likely because Grover Beach has a lower percentage of its population that is college-educated, though the Republican percentage decreased even more.
Demographics (2010): 79.4% Non-Hispanic White, 14.9% Hispanic, 2.5% Asian, 0.4% Black
Population (2018): 10,581
President: 54.9% D, 43.3% R (2004); 58.9% D, 38.3% R (2008); 58.2% D, 38.6% R (2012); 57.3% D, 36.3% R (2016)
MHI (2000): 34,379
% Bachelor’s (2000): 27.8%
Named after the famous Morro Rock, a volcanic plug that itself was named after a Spanish word for “nose”, Morro Bay started as a port where animal products were exported. A wharf now known as Embarcadero also went up. Later, an industry for fishing the highly valuable abalone started but ended not too long after due to overfishing. Fishing other species such as halibut and albacore still occurs today. Morro Bay also receives many environmental tourists because it is a protected area for birds and other wildlife and is known as “the Gibraltar of the Pacific”.
Demographics (2010): 59.1% Non-Hispanic White, 34.5% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian, 1.8% Black
Population (2018): 32,212
President: 63.3% R, 35.6% D (2004); 54.0% R, 44.2% D (2008); 56.3% R, 41.5% D (2012); 51.1% R, 42.1% D (2016)
MHI (2000): $39,217
% Bachelor’s (2000): 17.4%
Officially known as El Paso de Robles (The Pass of the Oaks), the city is well-known for its hot springs which even the Chumash knew about, almonds, wineries, and the California Mid-State Fair. In 1931, local business owners established a Pioneer Day (in October, not the Latter-Day Saint Pioneer Day of July 24) to help increase community friendship and to celebrate the city’s history. Paso Robles rapidly grew in the 1960s and 1970s along with the local wine industry, tourism around areas such as Lake Nacimiento, and the California Mid-State Fair.
The first local hotel in 1864 featured a hot mineral springs bath house. Later, in 1891, the famous El Paso de Robles Hotel opened and hosted prominent guests such as pianist/composer Ignace Paderewski (who treated his arthritis at the hotel’s hot springs before resuming his tours), boxing champion Jack Dempsey, President Theodore Roosevelt, and actors Boris Karloff, Bob Hope, and Clark Gable. Unfortunately the hotel, which was thought to be fireproof, burned down in late 1940. The guests survived, but the night clerk died from a heart attack after sounding the alarm. A new garden-inn hotel was built in its place in 1942.
Demographics (2010): 85.0% Non-Hispanic White, 9.3% Hispanic, 2.5% Asian, 0.6% Black
Population (2018): 8,213
President: 52.5% R, 46.4% D (2004); 50.5% D, 47.5% R (2008); 50.3% R, 47.4% D (2012); 49.3% D, 44.7% R (2016)
MHI (2000): $46,396
% Bachelor’s (2000): 37.1%
Part of the Five Cities area and well-known for clamming and monarch butterflies at its southern end, Pismo Beach was named after the Chumash word for tar, pismuʔ. The tar in the area, gathered from springs in Price Canyon, was valuable for the Chumash who used it to caulk their canoes used for travel along the coast and further out to the Channel Islands.
The shores were so chock-full of clams that they were harvested with plows! The Merrie Melodies short Ali Baba Bunny even references the city, when Bugs Bunny believes he and Daffy Duck had arrived at “Pismo Beach and all the clams we can eat”. Today, Pismo Beach's clam population is much less due to overharvesting, and it has many state government workers from the state Parks and Recreation Department who manage Pismo State Beach. This probably explains the higher percentage of the population that has at least a bachelor’s degree.
Demographics (2010): 75.8% Non-Hispanic White, 14.7% Hispanic, 5.1% Asian, 1.0% Black
Population (2018): 47,446
President: 59.3% D, 38.9% R (2004); 67.1% D, 30.4% R (2008); 63.8% D, 32.2% R (2012); 68.3% D, 22.4% R (2016)
MHI (2000): $31,926
% Bachelor’s (2000): 40.9%
Finally we come to the seat of San Luis Obispo County, San Luis Obispo city (nicknamed SLO Town). Like the county, the city was named after Saint Louis, Bishop of Toulouse. San Luis Obispo was one of the first European-founded communities in California, founded in 1772 by Junipero Serra, a Franciscan friar who founded the first 9 of the 21 missions in then-Alta California. In the late 19th century, Chinese laborers were brought in to construct railroads in the area. This resulted in the development of a thriving Chinatown. The community later dwindled, though San Luis Obispo city is still more Asian than the county as a whole. San Luis Obispo also has a large college student presence with California Polytechnic State University (known as Cal Poly) just north of the city limits.
With the development of car culture in the early 20th century, San Luis Obispo became a popular stop for motorists traveling between San Francisco and Los Angeles. The roads at the time were mostly in poor condition and cars weren’t as reliable, so instead of the hours that driving those routes takes today, such trips would take about two days. In 1925 the first motel in the world, the Milestone Mo-Tel, opened. Later the Milestone would be renamed the Motel Inn and would remain in business until 1991 and mostly torn down in 2006. Even without the Motel Inn, San Luis Obispo remains a popular stop for travelers going between Northern and Southern California.
Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County
Demographics (2010): 66.4% Non-Hispanic White, 20.9% Hispanic, 2.7% Black, 2.5% Asian
Population (2018): 123,613
President: 56.2% R, 42.5% D (2004); 49.9% R, 48.0% D (2008); 51.7% R, 45.6% D (2012); 46.7% D, 46.7% R (2016, Clinton won by 23 votes)
MHI (2000): Unknown
% Bachelor’s (2000): Unknown
Outside the incorporated cities, San Luis Obispo County is fairly evenly divided with many farms and wineries. Since Cal Poly is also not in an incorporated city, the rest of the county is likely Republican-leaning.