Knute Buehler, a former state representative who was the 2018 GOP nominee for governor of Oregon, announced Tuesday that he would seek the open and safely red 2nd Congressional District. Buehler lost an expensive race last year to Democratic incumbent Kate Brown 50-44, and he may benefit from lingering name recognition in the May primary to succeed retiring Rep. Greg Walden in this eastern Oregon seat.
However, Buehler has taken a number of stances during his political career that may have been helpful in a statewide race but toxic in a primary. Notably, Buehler identifies himself as pro-choice, and during his last campaign he pledged, “Regardless of what happens at the federal level, Oregon will remain a pro-choice state.” Buehler also was one of three Republicans in the state House to support a gun safety bill last year.
Several anti-abortion groups were unenthusiastic about Buehler last time, and they unsuccessfully tried to recruit a strong candidate to oppose him in the primary. The two Republicans who ended up taking on Buehler, businessman Sam Carpenter and retired Navy pilot Greg Wooldridge, both ran to his right and stressed their opposition to abortion, but they struggled to raise money. Buehler ended up defeating Carpenter 46-29, while Wooldridge took 20%. The result was similar for the 2nd District as it was statewide: We estimate that Buehler beat Carpenter 46-33 here, with Wooldridge in third with 17%.
While Buehler’s primary victory last year demonstrated that a self-declared pro-choice candidate could still win a GOP primary in Oregon, he may have a tougher time winning the GOP nod to succeed Walden. While Republicans looking to defeat Brown in this blue state may have been willing to ignore Buehler’s apostasies in the name of electability, they won’t need to make that sort of compromise to hold this 57-36 Trump seat.
Buehler also is likely to face much tougher challengers next cycle than he did last time. While neither of Buehler’s 2018 foes had won elected office, the current GOP field for the 2nd District includes state Sen. Cliff Bentz and former state Sen. Jason Atkinson. However, Oregon only requires candidates to take a plurality of the vote to win the primary, so Buehler may be able to win the GOP nod even if a majority of Republican voters once again go for other candidates.
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