The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NM-Sen: Through a spokesperson, state Attorney General Hector Balderas says that he'll have an announcement on Thursday at 11:30 AM ET (9:30 AM local time) about his plans for New Mexico's open Senate race. The announcement will be accompanied with a video, so it would be a big surprise if Balderas doesn't kick off a bid.
Campaign Action
Balderas ran for the state's other Senate seat in 2012 when he was still state auditor but lost the primary to then-Rep. Martin Heinrich 59-41 (Heinrich went on to win that fall). Balderas successfully ran for attorney general two years later and was re-elected last year 62-33.
Balderas may be hoping to deter some potential primary foes with an early announcement, though success on that score seems unlikely. A number of other Democrats are eyeing this contest, and Politico writes that Rep. Ben Ray Luján, who chaired the DCCC during its very successful 2018 cycle, is "expected to run," though he hasn't made a decision yet. The report adds that an announcement hasn't been set, but it's "expected in the coming weeks."
Luján, who is currently the No. 4 Democrat in the House, would be risking a lot if he entered the Senate contest. However, Luján might just see the Senate race as a more preferable option than running for a higher House leadership position whenever Speaker Nancy Pelosi or another senior Democrat steps down. Luján also has strong national fundraising connections from his tenure at the DCCC that could make him a very formidable foe.
But at least one other Democrat may run no matter what Luján does. Politico writes that Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver spoke to Luján on Monday and said she'd still consider entering even if the congressman does, too. Luján may also face some competition from either or both of his two New Mexico colleagues in the House: Rep. Deb Haaland said Tuesday she was weighing a bid, while fellow freshman Rep. Xochitl Torres Small declined to comment when she was asked if she was eyeing the race.
Senate
● IA-Sen, IA-04: The New York Times reports that Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer flew 2018 House candidate J.D. Scholten to D.C. at some point (presumably recently) to discuss a possible bid against GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. Scholten, who held white supremacist Rep. Steve King to a 50-47 win last year in Iowa's conservative 4th District, has been mulling runs for both offices, and it's unclear which way he's leaning.
Scholten told the paper that the "dilemma I'm having right now is that Democrats won the House, and so in order for us to pass some of these things, we need to have at least one senator from the state of Iowa be a Democrat." He added, "It's difficult because King is the most vulnerable he has ever been, but do we advance the things that I'm fighting for if I go back to the House seat?" So far, Democrats have yet to land a candidate to take on Ernst.
● SC-Sen: WPA Intelligence (R) for Conservatives for Clean Energy South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 55, Jaime Harrison (D): 32
House
● CA-15: Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell has made it clear that he won't try to run for president and for re-election at the same time, but he did give himself some wiggle room to seek a fifth term if a White House bid falters. Swalwell, who says he's close to deciding whether or not to run for president, told the San Jose Mercury News this week that "if I'm in the [presidential] race," by the time the state filing deadline comes up, "I'm going to stay running for president."
California's filing deadline is in December, so if Swalwell runs for president and keeps his word not to run for both offices, he'd need to decide what he's doing before any primaries or caucuses have taken place. If Swalwell does run for president, there are a number of Bay Area Democrats who would eye his safely blue East Bay House seat, and it's possible that some of them wouldn't want to abandon a House bid even if the congressman decided to come home and seek re-election after all.
● CA-22, Fresno, CA Mayor: Democrat Andrew Janz, who held Republican Rep. Devin Nunes to a 53-47 win last year, told the Fresno Bee this week that it was "highly unlikely" that he'd seek a rematch. Janz said instead that he was "strongly considering" a 2020 bid against another Central Valley Republican, Fresno Mayor Lee Brand. Another pair of Democrats, Fresno Councilwoman Esmeralda Soria and former Assemblyman Henry Perea, who lost to Brand 51-49 in 2016, are also eyeing the mayoral race.
● NM-02, NM-Sen: An advisor for Gavin Clarkson, a former Trump administration official, says his boss is considering seeking the GOP nod for either the 2nd Congressional District, now held by freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, or for New Mexico's open U.S. Senate seat. Clarkson resigned from the Department of Interior after a very brief and chaotic tenure a few months before he ran for the 2nd District last year. He ended up taking just 12 percent of the vote in the primary but a little while later, he was subbed in as the Republican candidate for secretary of state after the party's original nominee dropped out. However, Clarkson got whipped in the general election by a 58-37 margin.
● NY-15: Politico reports that before Rep. José Serrano announced he would retire from this safely blue seat on Monday, Assemblyman Michael Blake had spoken to potential allies about running against him. Blake, who serves as a vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, has not said anything publicly yet about his interest in this Bronx-based district.
● PA-10: The National Journal's Alex Clearfield reports that state Auditor Eugene DePasquale is considering seeking the Democratic nod to take on GOP Rep. Scott Perry in this Harrisburg-area seat. National Democrats tried to recruit DePasquale to run here last cycle, but while he mulled it over, he said he wanted to finish up his second term as auditor. DePasquale is termed-out next year, so it may make sense for him to run for the House then, though he's also been considering 2022 bids for governor or Senate.
Perry ended up defeating Army veteran George Scott by a small 51-49 margin in a district that had backed Trump 52-43. In late January, the National Journal also reported that Scott was considering another try, but we've heard nothing new from him in the intervening two months.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Here's a recap of Tuesday's special election in South Carolina:
SC-SD-06: Republican Dwight Loftis defeated Democrat Tina Belge by a 56-44 margin in this traditionally conservative suburban Greenville district. Despite the loss, there are a couple of positives Democrats can point to in this race. The most obvious is Belge's wide overperformance compared to the last two presidential elections in this district. Belge outpaced Hillary Clinton's 31-62 margin by 19 percentage points and Barack Obama's 31-67 margin by 25. One possible reason for Belge's overperformance is the support and resources she received from 2020 Democratic presidential candidates who have camped out in South Carolina.
Regardless of the outcome, simply having a candidate on the ballot in this race was notable for the Democrats. While the lines of this district have shifted somewhat over the years, it's long been centered around its present location, and no Democrat has appeared on the ballot here for at least 30 years.
The state Senate's composition returns to a 27-19 advantage for Republicans. There will also be another special election in this area in the summer to replace Loftis, who was the state representative for the conservative 19th District.
Mayoral
● Raleigh, NC Mayor: Former Raleigh City Council member Mary-Ann Baldwin and former Wake County Commissioner Caroline Sullivan have each announced that they'll run to succeed retiring Mayor Nancy McFarlane in this fall's contest. They join attorney Charles Francis, who lost to McFarlane 58-42 in 2017.
Baldwin held a citywide council seat until she retired in 2017. The News & Observer's Anna Johnson writes that since then, Baldwin has been a frequent critic of the city council majority that's often clashed with McFarlane. Like the mayor, Baldwin argued that the "acrimony among members is indefensible" and faulted them for doing little to combat the city's rising housing costs and congestion issues.
Sullivan served on the Wake County Commission until 2016, when she gave up her district seat to run for a "super district" created by the Republican-controlled state legislature. Those "super districts" were later struck down in court, though, and Sullivan didn't have enough time to run for re-election. Sullivan focused on affordable housing and improving mass transit in her announcement.
Other Races
● Orange County, CA Supervisor: The nonpartisan special election for the 3rd District seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors took place two weeks ago, but though there were still many ballots left to count on election night, Republican Don Wagner, the mayor of Irvine, has maintained his 42-37 edge over former Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez even as additional votes have been tallied. The San Francisco Chronicle reported Saturday that Wagner's lead stood at more than 3,500 votes, more than the remaining uncounted ballots.
This seat well be up again next year, but for now, Wagner's win ensures the GOP's 4-to-1 edge on the Board of Supervisors remains intact.
