The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Pres-by-LD, VA State House: This fall, Virginia's entire 100-member House of Delegates is up for election, and Democrats have a good chance to turn their 51-49 deficit into their first majority in 20 years. Importantly, this will be the first election held under a new court-ordered map that will be used in place of the previous GOP gerrymander, which federal judges struck down in part for discriminating against black voters.
Campaign Action
There's still a chance that the Supreme Court could yet interfere, but with the candidate filing deadline now passed, that looks increasingly unlikely. So assuming the new map holds up, just how much better for Team Blue is this new map than the old one? We've crunched the numbers in a new post to find out.
There's a lot, it turns out, for Democrats to like. While Hillary Clinton's 50-45 statewide win only allowed her to carry 51 of the 100 districts under the old boundaries, she won 56 seats under the new lines. And in the 25 districts that were altered by the new map, several Republicans are now in for much tougher races than they went through in 2017, including House Speaker Kirk Cox. There's much to see, and we detail it all in our new post.
1Q Fundraising
Attention campaigns: This is your last chance to send us your fundraising numbers, otherwise you'll have to wait until we publish our quarterly chart rounding up numbers from every candidate.
- MI-Sen: Gary Peters (D-inc): $1.9 million raised, $3 million cash-on-hand
- NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer (D-inc): $830,000 raised, $4.9 million cash-on-hand
- TX-10: Mike Siegel (D): $150,000 raised, $100,000 cash-on-hand
- TX-32: Colin Allred (D-inc): $530,000 raised, $527,000 cash-on-hand
Senate
● GA-Sen: After state Sen. Jen Jordan testified in front of Congress against an anti-abortion bill on Tuesday, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution asked her about her interest in seeking the Democratic nod against GOP Sen. David Perdue. Jordan very much did not rule anything out, saying what she's "realized in life is to never say never," adding that "right now I'm just having so much fun in the state Senate making Republicans’ lives tough, so we'll see."
● MI-Sen, MI-11: NRSC chair Todd Young made it clear in January that he wanted 2018 nominee John James to challenge Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, and James isn't saying no. On Wednesday, the Detroit News' Jonathan Oosting asked James about his future plans, and the Republican said that he has not yet decided on a future run. James has also occasionally been mentioned as a potential opponent for freshman Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens. When Oosting asked him what district he lived in, James replied that it doesn't matter because House members only need to reside in the state they represent—which is true as a matter of law, but not necessarily as a matter of politics.
● NH-Sen, NH-Gov: On Wednesday, WMUR reported that Gov. Chris Sununu had told "other key Republicans within the past several days" that he "intends" to run for a third two-year term as governor rather than against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu quickly responded that he had "made absolutely no decisions on my future in public service," adding, "Whether I run for re-election, the United States Senate or go back to the private sector—I will make that decision later this spring" with his family.
Gubernatorial
● WV-Gov: On Tuesday, MetroNews reported that federal prosecutors had subpoenaed the West Virginia Department of Commerce for records pertaining to the Greenbrier golf resort, which is owned by Republican Gov. Jim Justice. It's not clear what the nature of the investigation is, though Justice, who is up for re-election next year, was quick to deny any wrongdoing even in the absence of any specific (or even vague) accusations.
This news comes the same week as two new unflattering stories about Justice and his businesses. Forbes, which for years has ranked Justice as the wealthiest man in West Virginia, published a feature-length article titled "The Deadbeat Billionaire: The Inside Story Of How West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice Ducks Taxes And Slow-Pays His Bills."
If Justice sounds just like the man occupying the White House, he is. Justice and Trump have been compared to one another since they were both on the ballot in 2016, even though Justice was running as a Democrat back then. The governor would switch parties at a Trump rally the following year, and Trump has continued to lavish praise on him, labeling him "the largest, most beautiful man" just last year.
Among many other details, Forbes reporter Christopher Helman describes how in 2014, one of Justice's coal companies, Kentucky Fuel, negotiated $4.5 million in civil penalties owed in Kentucky down to $1.5 million when Justice agreed that it would "unconditionally and irrevocably guarantee" that it would finish reclamation work on its mines by November of 2015.
The job has still not been completed, and Kentucky's Energy and Environment Cabinet, the state equivalent of the EPA, has asked a judge to order Kentucky Fuel to pay them the remaining $3 million plus interest. Kentucky Fuel has also been caught mining without a permit in a location where the state has repeatedly ordered a halt to work. The agency, saying that the company "removed coal as if the Commonwealth's cessation orders did not exist," declared that they didn't trust Justice's firms anymore.
In true Trump-like fashion, Justice said he should be thanked, rather than criticized, by Kentucky officials for fixing 500 mining violations over the past five years, and he labeled the Energy and Environment Cabinet "unappreciative, jealous, and vindictive." However, even Justice's fellow Republicans aren't all aboard with his excuses for the many lawsuits and fines leveled against his companies. State Senate President Mitch Carmichael, who praised Justice back in August, told Forbes that, while lawsuits "can be legitimate occurrences," the governor is "either the unluckiest person or he has a propensity to do these type of things."
On Wednesday, NPR also reported that Justice's coal companies owe $4.3 million in penalties to the federal government assessed for safety shortcomings at his mines, which the story calls "the highest delinquent mine safety debt in the U.S. mining industry."
Back in 2014, NPR reported that Justice owed just under $2 million to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA). The following year, at the press conference where Justice launched his campaign for the Democratic nomination for governor, Justice declared that he would "absolutely ... make sure that every one of [the debts] is taken care of," which is very much not what's happened. An attorney for Justice's company said this week that the firm was "currently involved in negotiations" with MSHA, but the agency responded that it was not "currently involved in negotiations with the Justice group."
But will any of this matter in West Virginia, a state that has eagerly embraced Trump and all his own business problems? It very well might. Justice currently faces a primary challenge former state Del. Mike Folk, who lost a state Senate race last year, but it remains to be seen if Folk can run a strong race.
Former state Commerce Secretary Woody Thrasher, who was fired by Justice last year, reportedly is also considering a bid. However, like Justice, Thrasher only recently left the Democratic Party, so he might have a tough time getting traction. One report, though, suggested that Justice's allegedly poor work ethic as governor would be a focal point of a Thrasher campaign, so these latest stories would dovetail well with such an attack.
The GOP nominee would almost have the edge in the general election, though Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, who is probably Team Blue's strongest contender, is considering jumping in. He, too, has blasted Justice as a lazy, part-time governor, specifically citing Justice's decision to live at the Greenbrier, which is 120 miles from the state capital in Charleston.
House
● AL-01: This week, businessman Wes Lambert announced he was joining the GOP primary for this safely red open seat on the Gulf Coast.
● CA-15: KCBS’s Tim Ryan plays Great Mentioner and lists a few more possible Democratic successors to Rep. Eric Swalwell, who is running for president. Ryan names Alameda County District Attorney Nancy O'Malley and former Dublin Mayor Tim Sbranti as well as former state Senate Majority Leader Ellen Corbett, who challenged Swalwell in 2014 but took third place in the top-two primary. There's no word yet on whether any of them are interested.
● GA-06: Last week, the NRCC tried to troll Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath, whom they claim lives in Tennessee rather than in Georgia, by sending a gift basket to the address Republicans insist is her "real" home, just outside of Knoxville. On Wednesday, Fox News dutifully published a piece on the stunt, claiming that McBath had signed for the package in Tennessee. McBath called foul, though, saying in response that her "elderly mother-in-law" was in fact the person who signed for the parcel.
● NC-03: Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse is up with his second TV ad ahead of the 17-way April 30 GOP primary. This spot touts Rouse as a conservative businessman and repeatedly tells viewers they need "Rouse in the House," which sounds like a bad Dr. Seuss book.
● NM-02: On Wednesday, businessman Chris Mathys announced that he would seek the GOP nod to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small. Mathys ran for a seat on the state Public Regulation Commission last year but lost the GOP primary by all of 25 votes. He joins 2018 nominee Yvette Herrell, who lost to Torres Small 51-49, in the primary for this 50-40 Trump seat in southern New Mexico.
● NM-03: First Judicial District Attorney Marco Serna is one of several Democrats who has been mulling a bid for this open seat, and he recently agreed with a reporter that a "reasonable timetable" for him to decide would be by May 1. While we've referred to Serna as the Santa Fe County district attorney in the past, his jurisdiction also covers Los Alamos and Rio Arriba Counties; all together, a little more than a quarter of the 3rd Congressional District is in Serna's judicial district. However, as community member NMLib notes, those three counties cast just under half the total vote in the 3rd District during the 2016 primary, which took place on the same day as the presidential primary.
● NY-15: Ugh. On Tuesday, New York City Councilman Ruben Diaz Sr., a self-proclaimed conservative Democrat, filed with the FEC to seek this safely blue open Bronx seat, though he hasn't announced he's in yet. As we've written before, Diaz, a former state senator, has a long history of opposing gay rights. In February, he was stripped of his committee chairmanship after declaring the council was "controlled by the homosexual community" in a radio interview but has ignored widespread demands that he resign.
Unfortunately, Diaz's bigotry and aid to Republicans (he campaigned in the Bronx with none other than Ted Cruz in the 2016 presidential primary) hasn't dragged him down at the ballot box in past races. If he runs, he may well stand a good chance of winning the primary for a seat that Clinton carried with 94% of the vote, particularly if a crowded field emerges.
● OR-05: On Tuesday, Milwaukie Mayor Mark Gamba announced that he would challenge Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary for this competitive seat. Gamba has repeatedly criticized Schrader from the left, arguing that the Blue Dog Democrat "is somewhat out of touch, in my opinion, with the problems of everyday people" on health care and climate change.
As we've noted before, Gamba's city has a population of just over 20,000, so he likely won't start out with much name recognition. The 5th District, which includes Salem and some of Portland's suburbs, is swingy turf, though Schrader hasn't been seriously challenged in a general election since 2010. Clinton won 48-44 here and according to one analysis, Democratic Gov. Kate Brown lost the 5th by a 48.5 to 46.5 margin last year.
● TX-32: Defeated GOP Rep. Pete Sessions didn't rule out a rematch against Democrat Colin Allred back in December, and prominent local fundraiser Roy Bailey tells Gromer Jeffers of the Dallas News that the former Texas congressman is indeed still thinking about it.
Bailey, who ran Sessions' financial committee, said Sessions was "still very interested in taking the district back" and has "to complete his analysis of 2018 and what happened there, outside of what I called the Beto tsunami." That "Beto tsunami" is, of course, a reference to Democratic Senate nominee Beto O'Rourke, who posted a 55-44 victory here; Allred beat Sessions 52-46 that same night.
While Sessions might still be working on that 2018 defeat analysis, we're happy to present our own. To begin with, the former congressman didn't seem to understand that his once safely-red Dallas seat was quickly changing, and for reasons that had nothing to do with O'Rourke. Even prior to the midterms, Texas' 32nd District had already swung from 57-42 Romney to 49-47 Clinton, but Sessions seemed to think he was still safe.
In October 2017, when it was becoming more and more apparent that Trump would be a drag on the GOP ticket the following year, Sessions made it very clear that he didn't want major GOP outside groups coming to his aid, bragging that he "begged the NRCC, even when I was chairman, 'Keep the hell away from Dallas, Texas.'" He explained, "We need to go in somewhere else, it's up to me to win in Dallas, Texas. It's not up to some other group."
Months later, Sessions told McClatchy that he'd welcome a visit from Trump "with open arms," adding, "Can you invite him for me?" Major outside groups did end up spending plenty to aid him, and even Sessions belatedly came to realize that it might not be a good idea to campaign as a Trump ally.
That wasn't the last sign that Sessions was ill-suited for campaigning. A month after his defeat, Sessions whined to the Dallas News about the "incredible amount of money and an overwhelming sense of mischaracterization" he felt was used against him. Sessions, who had served in the House for 22 years and helmed the GOP's House campaign arm twice, also complained that it was the fault of the "Democratic Party and their allies who smeared" him as a D.C. insider. He also derided the many critical ads that targeted him as "shenanigans" and kvetched, "They did that to harm me." Yeah, that's what negative ads are meant to do.
Considering how he performed during and after the 2018 campaign, Sessions may in fact be Allred's ideal opponent, but there might actually be someone worse lurking around the corner. Jeffers writes that national Republicans have "expressed interest" in former Florida Rep. Allen West, who has lived in Texas for the last four years. West, who went on to serve on the Texas Sunset Advisory Commission, which reviews the efficiency and operations of state agencies, hasn't said anything about his interest. Last year West briefly considered running for the neighboring 5th District, a safely red seat being vacated by Jeb Hensarling, but he didn't go for it.
Back in Florida, West was a huge tea party favorite who had a knack for finding unique ways to offend. To take just a pair of examples, West declared, that if Nazi propagandist "Joseph Goebbels was around, he'd be very proud of the Democrat Party, because they have an incredible propaganda machine." He also said that "when I see anyone with an Obama 2012 bumper sticker, I recognize them as a threat to the gene pool." West lost his House seat in a very close race in 2012 even as Mitt Romney was narrowly carrying his district, and while he eventually conceded, West charged that "many questions remain unanswered" about the vote totals.
Of course, West has only gotten worse in the Trump era. In December, he shared a Facebook meme about James Mattis, who was Trump's first secretary of Defense, captioned, "Fired by Obama to please the Muslims. Hired by Trump to exterminate them." West also launched a transphobic attack on Pennsylvania Physician General Rachel Levine in 2016. West remains popular in the far-right media sphere, and if he ran, he'd probably have no trouble sucking in donations. However, we can’t imagine he’s the ideal GOP candidate to take on Allred in a competitive seat that doesn't seem to be getting any friendlier for Team Red.
Jeffers also writes that another politician reportedly being eyed by national Republicans is former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, who currently serves in Trump's Housing Department, but there's also no word on her interest. She also may not be such a great recruit, though, since none of Irving is located in this seat. Most of the city is in Texas' 24th District, where Jeffers says that Van Duyne has also been mentioned as a possible candidate to eventually succeed GOP Rep. Kenny Marchant departs, while the balance is in the safely blue 33rd District.
Jeffers also adds that other names "tossed about in the aftermath of Allred's victory include" former state Rep. Dan Branch and state Reps. Angie Chen Button and Morgan Meyer. There's also no indication if any of this trio are interested.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Here's a recap of Tuesday's lone legislative special election:
GA-HD-28: Chris Erwin defeated fellow Republican Dan Gasaway by a huge 75-25 margin, the third time in less than a year Erwin has won against Gasaway after voting irregularities prompted to two do-over elections since the original contest in May of last year. Unlike Erwin's first two victories, which were extremely narrow in nature, he dominated Gasaway to claim this seat and settle this bizarre saga once and for all.
The makeup of Georgia's state House returns to a 105-75 majority in favor of Republicans, with no other seats currently vacant.
Mayoral
● Philadelphia, PA Mayor: On Saturday, the American Beverage Association launched a two-week, $408,000 TV ad campaign encouraging viewers to tell the City Council to "stand up to" Mayor Jim Kenney and repeal the city's soda tax. The spot does not mention the upcoming May 21 Democratic primary or Kenney's two opponents, state Sen. Anthony Williams and former city Controller Alan Butkovitz. The commercial also comes just after a group funded by the local building trade unions launched a $131,000 TV ad campaign praising Kenney's record, including the new pre-K programs that are funded by the soda tax.
Judicial
● WI Supreme Court: On Tuesday, Wisconsin Court of Appeals Judge Lisa Neubauer conceded last week's extremely close contest for the state Supreme Court to fellow appeals court Judge Brian Hagedorn after a county-level canvass of the vote failed to materially change Hagedorn's 6,000-vote margin on election night. Thanks to Hagedorn's win, the conservative majority on the bench expands to five-to-two, denying progressives the chance to flip the court next year.
Neubauer, a widely respected jurist who'd been named to her post on the appeals court by former Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle, enjoyed the support of 98% of fellow judges who endorsed in the race to succeed retiring liberal Justice Shirley Abrahamson. She also had the backing of unions and progressive organizations like Planned Parenthood. Hagedorn, by contrast, was a vocal conservative who was appointed by none other than former Gov. Scott Walker.
While Hagedorn attempted to wave away his extremist beliefs with thin promises that they wouldn't impact his actions on the bench, a series of revelations about his hatred of gay people kept pouring out over the course of the campaign: He'd penned blog posts arguing that striking down laws against sodomy would lead to legalized bestiality; founded a school that bans gay students and teachers and expels pupils if their parents are gay; and accepted thousands of dollars to give speeches to an anti-gay organization that the Southern Poverty Law Center labels a hate group.
Hagedorn refused to apologize for any of this, and his record proved to be so repellent that the influential Wisconsin Realtors Association, which had backed many conservative Supreme Court candidates in recent years, yanked its endorsement. Most other groups also kept away from him, leading to a 14-to-1 advantage in outside spending for Neubauer until the Republican State Leadership Committee (which ordinarily supports legislative candidates) parachuted in with a seven-figure rescue in the final week of the race.
It appears to have made the difference. And while conservatives will have to play defense a year from now, when another Walker appointee, Dan Kelly, is up for election, Hagedorn's win ensures they'll retain their majority heading into the next round of redistricting. That in turn almost certainly means the Wisconsin Supreme Court won't act as a check on the extreme gerrymanders that Republicans have perpetrated for years.