The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Senate-by-LD, Governor-by-LD: Republicans have controlled the Arizona legislature for decades, but the 2018 elections illuminate the path for Democrats to majorities in each chamber. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated Republican Martha McSally 50-48 in last year's U.S. Senate race and carried 16 of the state's 30 legislative districts, enough for narrow majorities in both chambers if Democrats can capture all of them.
Campaign Action
In a new post, we take a look at Arizona's 2018 Senate results by state legislative district, and the seats that Team Blue should look at as they try to flip each chamber. You can also see these results visualized in maps for the House and Senate.
Each of the Grand Canyon State's legislative seats elects one senator and two state representatives every two years; the districts are exactly the same for both chambers. There are three Sinema districts that have at least one Republican in their legislative delegation, so if Democrats can sweep them and hold all their current seats, they'd take narrow majorities in each chamber. There's also one additional constituency, the 6th Legislative District in the Flagstaff area, that only narrowly backed McSally, and it could be vulnerable in 2020.
We also have the results of the Senate race calculated by congressional district, and the gubernatorial contest calculated by congressional and legislative district. There's a lot to see, and you can check out our new post for our analysis.
P.S. You can find our master list of statewide election results by congressional and legislative district here, which we'll be updating as we add new states; you can also find all our data from 2018 and past cycles here.
Senate
● NM-Sen: On Wednesday, Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver announced her candidacy for the Democratic nomination for New Mexico's open Senate seat. Toulouse Oliver won re-election in 2018 by a wide 58-37 margin, and she won't have to give up her seat to run for Senate, making this a free shot for her. As secretary, Toulouse Oliver was a leading proponent for measures to expand access to voting, which culminated in Democratic lawmakers passing same-day voter registration and other reforms earlier this year.
After having run statewide twice already, Toulouse Oliver may start out with some measure of name recognition. However, she'll be running in a primary against Rep. Ben Ray Luján, who has the endorsement of the DSCC. Meanwhile, 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary candidate Jeff Apodaca announced he won't run for Senate.
● TX-Sen: Former cabinet secretary and current presidential candidate Julián Castro says his twin brother, Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro, will make a decision on whether to run for Senate in the "next few days." That announcement comes after MJ Hegar, a 2018 House candidate whose viral campaign ad catapulted her into national media attention for her race in a tough district, kicked off her candidacy for the Democratic nomination on Tuesday. Meanwhile, VoteVets has endorsed Hegar, who is a retired Air Force major.
Gubernatorial
● IL-Gov: On Tuesday, local public radio station WBEZ, relying on an unnamed law enforcement source, reported that Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, his wife M.K. Pritzker, and his brother-in-law, Thomas Muenster, were all under federal investigation over an alleged scheme to defraud the Cook County government to avoid paying hundreds of thousands of dollars in property taxes. This same issue had dogged Pritzker's campaign last fall, but he nevertheless easily prevailed in this blue state against his deeply unpopular predecessor, Republican Bruce Rauner.
Last year, the Chicago Sun-Times reported that in 2007, Pritzker purchased a second Chicago mansion right next to the one he lived in, though his family did not move into the new home. Instead, they let their new property fall into disrepair and disconnected and removed the toilets. The Pritzkers went on to argue that the second home was "vacant and uninhabitable," which allowed them to get a $331,000 property tax break after their attorneys convinced the Cook county's assessor's office to dramatically slash the property's value from $6.25 million to just $1.1 million.
WBEZ reports that Muenster repaid the $331,000 to the county treasurer's office after a Sun-Times story on Pritzker's "toilet tax break" came out last October and also sent a letter to the treasurer averring that the repayment was "in no way an admission of wrongdoing." Meanwhile, Pritzker's attorney, Marc Elias, contends that "[n]either the governor nor the first lady have been contacted by law enforcement regarding the property tax appeal." Additionally, current and former employees of the county assessor's office say they haven't been contacted by federal investigators.
A federal investigation might not be the Pritzker's only problem, though, since Cook County State's Attorney Kim Foxx's office previously disclosed it had opened its own investigation last October. However, a Foxx aide didn't confirm or deny the existence of the probe when WBEZ attempted to find out if the investigation remains active.
● MS-Gov: Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves has launched the first TV ad in the Republican primary, which his campaign says is for 500 gross ratings points, something that is a measure of how many times viewers are exposed to an ad. The spot features Reeves calling for less regulation, lower taxes, workforce training, and education reform. He argues that Democratic primary frontrunner Jim Hood doesn't have what it takes to lead the state in that direction, but Reeves claims he himself does.
House
● GA-06: Karen Handel's struggles with the space-time continuum are starting to look like a really weird lost episode of "Doctor Who." First, she sent her TARDIS flying backwards through time to claim that money she'd raised in 2018 was actually raised this year. Now, it turns out, the ex-congresswoman's also leapt forward to file a fundraising report for the second quarter of 2019, which, clever readers that you are, you're keenly aware is months away from its conclusion.
What's particularly bizarre is that this "second quarter" report lists actual donations made right until the day before it was filed, April 11. It's not due, though, until July 15, and it must include all contributions through June 30. It seems, then, that Handel's finance staff includes a mendacious sleaze and a stand-out dimbulb—perhaps in the form of the same person.
If, however, Karen Handel really does have access to a time machine, what she should really do is go back to 2017 and tell herself not to run for office at all.
● IL-14: Businessman Ted Gradel is the latest Republican to jump into the race against first-term Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood. Gradel doesn't appear to have run for office before, but he did play football for Notre Dame when he was in college, and his announcement video was narrated by former coach Lou Holtz. Gradel joins a primary that includes state Sen. Jim Oberweis and Army veteran Anthony Catella.
● MA-06: With incumbent Democrat Seth Moulton preoccupied with his presidential bid, Democratic state Rep. Lori Ehrlich has confirmed she's interested in running regardless of whether or not Moulton tries to turn around and run for re-election if he loses the presidential nomination.
Meanwhile, one other potential Democratic candidate is women's health advocate Jamie Zahlaway Belsito, who recently filed paperwork to run and has told family and friends that she was going to run for Congress in 2020, but it's unclear if she would be willing to run against Moulton if he seeks re-election. However, it would be somewhat ironic if she opposed Moulton, since that's what she did when he first ran for this seat in 2014 ... as the Democratic nominee against Republican Richard Tisei. Indeed, Belsito volunteered for Tisei's campaign, and she had a history of voting in the primaries for both parties, having only become a registered Democrat rather recently.
● NM-03: Public Regulation Commissioner Valerie Espinoza recently took herself out of the running for the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Ben Ray Luján, saying she wanted to stay in New Mexico instead of going to D.C.
● NY-15: Assemblyman Michael Blake is the latest Democrat to join the race for this open Bronx district. Blake previously ran in a special election for New York City public advocate earlier this year, and although he only took 8% citywide, he did much better in the part of the Bronx that contains his legislative seat and the entirety of the 15th District.
Blake, who is the son of Jamaican immigrants, joins a primary that includes Bronx River Community Center director Tomas Ramos and New York City Councilman Ruben Diaz Sr., a notorious homophobe and self-described conservative Democrat. However, more candidates are likely to enter the race for what is one of the most safely Democratic districts in the country.
● OK-05: On Wednesday, state Sen. Stephanie Bice became the first notable Republican to jump into the race against Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn, whose 2018 upset victory made her the first Democrat to represent this ancestrally Republican district in more than four decades. Bice is serving her second term holding down a dark-red district in the Oklahoma City suburbs, and she chairs the Finance Committee, meaning she could be well-connected with donors.
Meanwhile, former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett's name has previously been mentioned as a potential GOP candidate, but he just took a job with a public relations firm and didn't respond when asked about his plans.
● TX-32: Dallas County Republican Party chairwoman Missy Shorey reportedly was being recruited by unnamed state Republicans to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Colin Allred and reportedly hadn't ruled out running, but the Texas Tribune relayed on Wednesday that Shorey had died suddenly. The Tribune didn't disclose anything further about the cause or circumstances of Shorey's death.
Legislative
● Legislatures: The indispensable folks at Ballotpedia have launched a new page tracking state legislative vacancies, which will be of immense help to anyone who follows legislative elections. While Ballotpedia has long tracked legislative special elections, only half of all states fill vacancies by this method. The rest use some form of appointment, or an appointment followed by a special election, meaning that if you want to stay on top of turnover in state legislatures, you need to account for these states as well.
So far in 2019, at least 18 vacancies have been filled by appointment, and a few more are waiting to be filled in this manner. Meanwhile, a similar number of vacancies have been filled via special election, with about as many specials elections still pending.
● Special Elections: Here's a recap of Tuesday's two special elections:
SC-HD-14: For the second time in a month, a Democrat delivered a huge overperformance in a traditionally deep red South Carolina district. Republican Stewart Jones defeated Garrett McDaniel 56-44, the exact same margin Democrat Tina Belge lost by in a March special election. Jones' result, however, was well short of Donald Trump's 67-30 margin and Mitt Romney's 62-37 win.
And McDaniel's performance might have been even more impressive than Belge's: While Belge ran in a largely suburban district, McDaniel's race took place largely on rural turf. In addition, Belge got a helping hand from several Democratic presidential candidates; McDaniel doesn't appear to have enjoyed a similar boost.
Despite the positives for Democrats, Republicans nevertheless secured the win and now have a 79-44 advantage in this chamber, with one vacancy.
TN-SD-22: Republican Bill Powers defeated Democrat Juanita Charles 54-44 in another Democratic overperformance. There were two independent candidates on the ballot who combined for 1% of the vote. This was a solidly Republican district in 2012, going for Romney 55-44. However, it swung even further rightward in 2016, when Trump won 58-36. This chamber returns to a 28-5 majority for Republicans.
Mayoral
● Tampa, FL Mayor: On Tuesday, former Tampa Police Chief Jane Castor defeated wealthy retired banker David Straz, a fellow Democrat, 73-27 in the race to succeed termed-out Mayor Bob Buckhorn. Castor's victory makes her the city's first gay mayor.
Castor led Straz 48-16 in last month's nonpartisan primary, and she quickly picked up endorsements from Buckhorn, local Rep. Kathy Castor (no relation), and several of the defeated primary candidates. Straz used his fortune to outspend Castor $5.1 million to $2 million, but he still fell far short on Tuesday.