On Monday, Rep. Eric Swalwell, who has represented California’s safely blue 15th Congressional District in the San Francisco Bay Area since his 2012 win, announced that he would join the Democratic presidential primary. While California appears to allow Swalwell to both seek re-election and run for president at the same time, he’s said repeatedly he won’t do that.
However, the congressman gave himself some wiggle room a few weeks ago to pursue a fifth term if a White House bid falters. Swalwell told the San Jose Mercury News that "if I'm in the [presidential] race," by the time the state filing deadline comes up, "I'm going to stay running for president." California's filing deadline is in December, so if Swalwell keeps his word, he'll need to decide if he wants to continue running for president before any primaries or caucuses have taken place.
For now, though, we have an open seat race in the 15th. This seat, which includes the communities of Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton, backed Hillary Clinton 70-24, and Democrats will have no trouble holding it. Indeed, this seat is so blue that there’s a real possibility that two Democrats will advance through the top-two primary and fight it out in the general election, which is exactly what happened in 2012.
While the borders—and the numbering—of the 15th District have of course shifted over the years, it's always been centered around Alameda County south of Oakland, on the eastern shore of the San Francisco Bay (better known as the East Bay). Notably, the last time this district came open was in 1924, when Republican Rep. Albert Carter won it. Carter went on to lose to Democrat George Miller in 1944, and remarkably, between Miller (not to be confused with another former California Democratic congressman with the same name) and Swalwell, only one other representative ever served here: Democrat Pete Stark, who unseated Miller in a primary in 1972.
In 2012, when an independent redistricting commission redrew California’s lines for the first time, Stark sought re-election in the new 15th District, which included a little less than half of the constituency that he’d represented over the prior decade. Most local Democrats were content to wait and allow Stark, who would turn 81 just after Election Day, to hold the seat just a bit longer before he retired. But Swalwell, a little-known member of the Dublin City Council and an Alameda County prosecutor, decided to take his chances and challenge the longtime incumbent.
That gamble worked out very well for him. Stark, who had not faced any serious competition in decades, drew negative headlines on the campaign trail when he accused Swalwell of taking bribes without providing a shred of evidence and labeled him a “fucking crook.” The two each advanced to the general election, and in a contest where more and more stories about Stark’s behavior kept surfacing, Swalwell won 52-48. In 2014 state Sen. Ellen Corbett, one of the Democrats who had wanted to run whenever Stark retired, ran against Swalwell, but her third-place finish in the top-two primary likely helped convince other local politicians to just wait the new congressman out rather than challenge him.
They may have to wait a bit longer, though, since some Democrats might be hesitant to launch a congressional campaign knowing that Swalwell could yet return home and run for re-election. However, the Mercury News’ Casey Tolan asked a few local politicians about their interest in this race back in late March, and a few showed some interest in getting in. State Sen. Bob Wieckowski said, “If ultimately Congressman Swalwell decides to not file for re-election, I will consider it then.” Wieckowski represents a little over 60 percent of the 15th District, so he would likely start out with some name recognition should he run.
Assemblyman Rob Bonta didn’t rule out running last month, saying it was “way too premature for me to be making any decisions.” However, Bonta’s Oakland-based seat barely overlaps at all with this congressional district: Indeed, at the time the 2010 Census was conducted, all of 42 people lived in both seats. Hayward City Councilor Aisha Wahab also didn’t say no. Wahab, whose win last year made her one of the first Afghan American women to ever win elected office, told Tolan that she was leaving “all doors open.” In the no camp are Alameda County Supervisor Scott Haggerty and Assemblyman Bill Quirk.
Unsurprisingly, the list of potential GOP candidates is much shorter. Former Assemblywoman Catharine Baker, who narrowly lost re-election last year, didn’t quite rule it out a few weeks ago, saying she did “not have any plans to run for CD15 should Eric not run for re-election.”