The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Race Ratings: For the first time since 2003, all three governorships that are regularly elected in the year following midterm elections have the potential to change hands. The playing field, however, is entirely in the South and, as you'd expect, still largely favors Republicans. Nonetheless, an unusual set of circumstances gives Democrats reason for hope in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
Campaign Action
Daily Kos Elections is pleased to issue our first set of race ratings for the coming election cycle, focusing on these three gubernatorial contests. In Louisiana, Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is popular in the polls and faces underwhelming opponents, but the state's conservative lean makes his re-election prospects a Tossup. Meanwhile, in Kentucky, Republican Gov. Matt Bevin is deeply unpopular—in fact, he's the most disliked governor in the land—but his state's even deeper red hue gives him the advantage and makes this race Lean Republican.
Finally, there's Mississippi, an open-seat race where Democrats have landed their strongest possible candidate in state Attorney General Jim Hood. However, thanks to a Jim Crow provision in the state's 1890 constitution, Hood would have to win both a majority of the popular vote and a majority of districts in the state House, which is heavily gerrymandered in favor of Republicans. But even if Democrats successfully challenge this law in court, the GOP will remain the heavy favorite, leading us to rate this one Likely Republican.
Please click through for much more detailed explanations of these ratings, and stay tuned for our ratings of next year's contests for Senate, House, and governor as well.
Senate
● GA-Sen: As expected, former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson jumped into the Democratic primary for Senate on Wednesday, shortly after 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams' announcement on Tuesday that she wouldn't run. Tomlinson was mayor of Georgia's third-largest city from 2011 to 2019, but she'll likely be starting out the race with little name recognition outside of the Columbus area, which makes up only about 5% of the state's population.
Tomlinson is the first noteworthy Democrat to join the race against Republican Sen. David Perdue, but she may not be the last. However, Tomlinson's campaign said it had already raised $265,000 since Abrams declined to run, and she could have a fundraising advantage by the time any other rivals enter the race. And one of those potential opponents appears inclined to sit this one out: Former state Sen. Jason Carter, who was Team Blue's nominee for governor in 2014, praised Tomlinson's campaign rollout, though he stopped short of endorsing her outright.
● TX-Sen: Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro confirmed on Wednesday that he won't seek his party's nomination for Senate and will instead run for re-election to his safely blue House seat, a development that doesn't come as a big surprise after he raised very little money in the first quarter. Former 2018 congressional candidate MJ Hegar is so far the only notable Democrat in the race against GOP Sen. John Cornyn. While Castro said he was impressed with Hegar and would do everything he could to help the Democratic nominee prevail, other possible candidates may soon take a closer look now that Castro is out.
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: State Attorney General Andy Beshear's latest ad ahead of the May 21 Democratic primary is largely narrated by his running mate, Jacqueline Coleman. As clips play of Beshear speaking out in support of the teachers' strike against Republican Gov. Matt Bevin's cuts to education funding and state pensions, Coleman praises Beshear's leadership, saying he'll stand up to bullies like Bevin. Meanwhile, the Kentuckians for a Better Future super PAC supporting former state Auditor Adam Edelen is placing a new TV ad buy starting on Thursday, although there's no copy of the ad or any word yet on how much they're spending.
House
● CA-04: On Tuesday, entrepreneur Brynne Kennedy filed paperwork to run as a Democrat so she can raise money while testing the waters, saying she'll "see how that goes going forward." The Sacramento Bee reports that Kennedy previously helped raise more than $100 million in venture capital for a software company she founded in 2010, so not only might she have the connections to raise some serious cash for a House campaign, she also isn't ruling out doing some self-funding.
However, Kennedy does have one potentially serious liability: She only just recently moved into the 4th District from San Francisco. This seat encompasses the Sacramento suburbs and the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and local Democrats told the Bee that they fear having someone with weak ties to the district would be a major negative. Indeed, 2018 nominee Jessica Morse, who lost by just 8% in this 54-39 Trump district, made her local roots a big focus of her campaign. She specifically drew a contrast with Republican Rep. Tom McClintock by calling him a carpetbagger, noting he only moved to the area to run for Congress in 2008 after having previously represented a legislative seat in Southern California over the course of two decades.
If Kennedy does join the race, she'll be competing in the top-two primary with fellow Democrat Sean Frame, who is a Placerville Union School Board member.
● GA-07: On Wednesday, state Rep. Brenda Lopez Romero became the latest Democrat to enter the primary for this competitive open seat in Atlanta's northeastern suburbs. An attorney who was born in Mexico, Lopez Romero became the first Latina to get elected to the Georgia legislature when she first won her state House seat in 2016. If elected to Congress, she would become not only the first Latina member from Georgia, but also the first person of Latin American descent from any state in the Deep South.
This rapidly diversifying district has significant black, Latino, and Asian American populations, and voters of color will likely make up a majority of the Democratic primary electorate. However, only about 9% of eligible voters here are Latino, a demographic that typically turns out at a lower rate than black voters, who remain a big part of the Democratic base in Southern districts like this.
Lopez Romero joins a crowded Democratic primary that includes 2018 nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux, who nearly won last cycle; former Fulton County Commission chair John Eaves; attorney Marqus Cole; and former DNC official Nabilah Islam.
Meanwhile on the Republican side, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution just put together a roundup of the entire field. Former state rep. Scott Hilton, who had previously been mentioned as a possible candidate, is reportedly considering a bid, although there's no direct quote; Hilton joined the administration of Republican Gov. Brian Kemp after the 2018 elections. Additionally, Marine veteran Shane Hazel is also reportedly considering making another run after he unsuccessfully primaried retiring Rep. Rob Woodall from the right last year, losing by a 72-28 margin.
● IA-02: Scott County Supervisor Ken Croken, a Democrat who first took office in January, expressed interest in running for Iowa's newly open 2nd District next year. The Quad-City Times describes Croken as a business executive who has experience working on Capitol Hill and helping run political campaigns. Croken didn't reveal when he would reach a decision, but he said that if he did run, he would take a more "assertive" approach even though he shares similar policy stances with retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack, who often kept a low profile in this swingy district.
● NC-03: On Tuesday, voters in North Carolina's 3rd District went to the polls to select their nominees in the special election to replace Republican Rep. Walter Jones. On the Republican side, state Rep. Greg Murphy led pediatrician Joan Perry by a 23-15 margin, with state Rep. Phil Shepard taking 12%, state Rep. Michael Speciale 10%, and Marine veteran Phil Law 9%. The other 12 (!) candidates combined for the remaining 32%.
Since no one surpassed the 30% threshold needed to win the nomination outright, Murphy and Perry will advance to a July 9 runoff. Wednesday morning, Murphy received an endorsement from 11th District Rep. Mark Meadows, who leads the far-right House Freedom Caucus.
On the Democratic side, former Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas just narrowly earned an outright majority of 50.02% according to unofficial results, easily defeating Marine veteran Richard Bew, who took just 25% despite having generated buzz among national Democrats in a district that has a major military presence.
Although Thomas will get to stockpile his resources while Murphy and Perry continue to duke it out for another two months, this coastal district is heavily Republican (it voted 61-37 for Trump) and likely to stay that way in the Sept. 10 general election.
● NY-05: Marine veteran Shaniyat Chowdhury is the latest political newcomer to say he plans to primary a longtime Democratic member of Congress in New York City, in this case Rep. Gregory Meeks, who's represented southeastern Queens for two decades. Chowdhury, a 27-year-old bartender and member of the Democratic Socialists of America, offers some obvious likenesses to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—in fact, he even worked on her congressional campaign. But in an astute piece, City & State's Jeff Coltin examines the many ways in which Chowdhury's longshot candidacy diverges from AOC's, not least because of the very different demographics in New York's 5th Congressional District versus its 14th.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Here's a recap of Tuesday's special election in Wisconsin:
WI-AD-64: Democrat Tip McGuire easily defeated Republican Mark Stalker 62-38. McGuire was a legislative aide to former state Rep. Peter Barca, who'd held this seat until resigning earlier this year to accept an appointment from Gov. Tony Evers. This 99-seat chamber returns to full strength, with Republicans holding a 63-36 advantage.
Notably, McGuire bested Hillary Clinton's 53-42 win by a healthy 14 points and even improved on Barack Obama's 59-40 margin by 6 points. After a somewhat sluggish start to this special election cycle, this race continues a positive trend for Democrats. Since March, Democrats have enjoyed their first red-to-blue flip of the cycle and have been on a run of overperforming past presidential margins: In 26 legislative special elections since the midterms, Democratic candidates are running 4.7 points ahead of Clinton.