On Thursday, Alabama Republican Roy Moore announced that he would seek a rematch with Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. Moore was Team Red’s nominee in the state in the 2017 special Senate election and lost 50-48 after multiple women accused him of preying on them when they were teenagers. Moore never conceded defeat to Jones (nor has he conceded his 2006 and 2010 primary losses for governor), and he’s spent months talking about running again.
Moore is the only Republican in a decade to lose a statewide general election in Alabama, and national Republicans have absolutely no interest in letting him cost them another Senate race. In February, the NRSC’s executive director declared, “The NRSC’s official stance is ABRM: anyone but Roy Moore.” Donald Trump, who still supported Moore during that special election, even tweeted a few weeks ago that, while he had "NOTHING against Roy Moore," the former state Supreme Court chief justice "cannot win, and the consequences will be devastating....Judges and Supreme Court Justices!"
Democrats, though, would love to face the damaged Moore again, and Jones all but dared him to run again back in February. However, while Moore, who thrilled social conservatives when he was effectively ejected as chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court in both 2003 and 2015, still has a dedicated base of support at home, it’s tough to see him winning the GOP nod again after all that happened in 2017. It doesn’t help him that Alabama requires a runoff in primary contests where no one earns a majority of the vote, so he can’t just get through a crowded field to win with only a plurality of the vote.
And while Moore, who defeated appointed Sen. Luther Strange in the 2017 runoff, is one of the few people in modern Republican politics to beat a Trump-endorsed candidate in a primary, he may have a much tougher time overcoming the White House’s opposition in 2020. Last time, Trump spoke well of Moore even while he was stumping for Strange. Trump even said that he “might have made a mistake” by not backing Moore instead of Strange―a statement he made at what was supposed to be a rally for Strange.
Things could go very differently, though, in a primary in which Trump is actually opposing Moore. In today’s environment, when a tweet from Trump is often the biggest factor in deciding who wins or loses a GOP primary, that distinction could indeed make all the difference.
A few Republicans are already running, including Rep. Bradley Byrne, state Rep. Arnold Mooney, and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville. The biggest question looming over the race now that Moore’s in is whether or not former Sen. Jeff Sessions, whose 2017 departure led to the special election that Moore lost, will run to reclaim his old seat. Sessions, who went through an unhappy stint as Trump’s attorney general, didn’t rule out the idea as recently as May, but he’s taken no obvious steps toward running.
Sen. Richard Shelby, who was Sessions’ home-state Senate colleague for 20 years, praised him on Wednesday and said he’d make a formidable candidate. However, Shelby admitted he didn’t know what Sessions would do, adding, “He hasn’t said to me yes or no.” Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt was less optimistic, saying that he recently spoke to Sessions and “he doesn’t sound to be interested in coming back to the Senate.” Alabama’s candidate filing deadline is in early November, so Sessions doesn’t have too long to make up his mind.
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