Welcome to my second cattle call of this season! (The first is here.) Yes, this is opinionated. Yes, I am biased. I am human. So are you. It’s okay to disagree, the world won’t end. As a foundation, here’s FiveThirtyEight’s list of primary polls, and I’ll include the graph of the RCP rolling averages. Let’s get started!
1. Joe Biden ⬇️
As you can see from the polling averages above, Biden’s numbers have leveled off from their post-bump highs, but they seem to have found a new floor, one that’s five points higher than where he was pre-announcement. And at 35%, he’s well above the rest of the field. Two thirds of Democrats prefer someone else! But that’s still three times more than the second-place candidate.
Still, it’s clear that Biden’s people are afraid of Biden’s famous mouth, keeping him shielded from anything resembling a real campaign. Not only is he invisible on the campaign trail, but he avoided the California Democratic Party Convention this past weekend, giving up the high-profile event for lower-key campaigning in Ohio.
Not helping, it doesn’t seem people are interested in turning out for his events, as painful headlines like this one make starkly clear: “Joe Biden is the front-runner by every measure—except big crowds.” Indeed, the former Delaware senator decided to stage his announcement rally in Philly, in large part to be near that huge reservoir of people, and yet managed to turn out only an anemic 6,000. Kamala Harris had 22,000 at her announcement speech in smaller Oakland.
The reality is that Biden’s support doesn’t come from a position of excitement, but from fear—people so desperate to beat Donald Trump that they think the white guy former vice president gives us the best chance. (He’s not.) And hence is the Biden dilemma: How do you generate excitement for Biden, when being more visible exponentially increases the odds that he’ll say something stupid?
And the second he says something stupid, his entire “I’m more electable” argument evaporates.
But you know what else evaporates support? His dogmatic opposition to an impeachment inquiry. He really is running a campaign straight out of 1992, but stealthier.
2. Bernie Sanders ⬇️
Sanders’s slide in the wake of Joe Biden’s announcement seems to have been arrested, but unfortunately for him, it’s still significantly lower than it was, from the mid-20s to the mid-teens. He lags Biden significantly, yet still hasn’t figured out a way to expand beyond his loyal base of support. In fact, he’s taken steps to actively test that base! He was the only serious presidential candidate to join Biden in …. being lukewarm on a Trump impeachment after Mueller’s explosive testimony last week. “If the House Judiciary Committee deems it necessary, I will support their decision to open an impeachment inquiry.” Not exactly leading from the front, is it? Furthermore, his opposition to filibuster reform all but guarantees that his agenda would be stillborn if he was elected. So is he serious about a revolution, when he insists on arming Republicans with the tools necessary to defeat it?
His rally over the weekend in San Jose (California’s <s>second</s>third-largest city after Los Angeles and San Diego) drew 2,500, a steep drop off from the 16,000 he drew in San Francisco in March. His performance at the California Democratic Party convention was … actually, I don’t know what it was, because everyone was raving about the speeches from Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren instead (and to a lesser extent, Kamala Harris). The party has new blood, and by refusing to update his stump speech and message, Bernie seems to be receding into the background.
If this race mimics past patterns (no guarantee, of course), and if Biden retains this kind of support (also no guarantee), there will be a move toward consolidating the “anti-establishment” vote. A savvy politician would be laying that foundation today, making him- or herself palatable to as wide a constituency as possible. On that front, Sanders is being outmaneuvered by ...
3. Elizabeth Warren ⬆️
Her Friday-night Oakland rally drew 6,500, marking an inflection point in her campaign.
While her polling is inching up, it’s still just at around 10%. The fact that that’s enough for third place shows just how fragmented this field is. Warren’s challenge is that her wing of the Democratic Party is firmly anchored by Sanders. She needs him to falter to pick up significant support, and it’s hard to see Sanders losing any real support anytime soon.
Biden’s support is heavily black—from half to two-thirds depending on what data you look at. The simplistic analysis is that he’ll eventually lose that to Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, or both. Can Warren chip away at that? She’s done some solid early work on that front. It also helps that having eschewed big-money fundraisers (something not even Bernie has done, inexplicably), she can focus on campaigning. Even at the Oakland rally, with 6,500 attendees, she promised to stay as long as necessary to take selfies with anyone who wanted one. In the middle of that long line, the campaign announced her 25,000 selfie, which is amazing! But smart politics—each is a free social media and word-of-mouth ad, and who doesn’t want a selfie with a president? Between that desire, and the power of physical touch, she’s building her own highly dedicated army of supporters—one that is more valuable than pressing the flesh with millionaires and billionaires for $5,000 checks. (Well, theoretically. We’ll see in the end...)
Warren needs to firmly establish herself as everyone’s favorite second choice. Once the big consolidation happens, and a need for anti-Biden emerges, she has to be able to gather that disparate coalition—the Bernie left, a gay electorate electrified by Pete Buttigieg, the smattering of supporters of the lagging female candidates like Amy Klobuchar and Kirsten Gillibrand. In all, the laggards and “I don’t knows” total around 30% of the Democratic vote. Someone will consolidate them. You and I know it won’t be Bernie, and if they wanted Biden, they’d be there already. The two candidates best positioned for that vote are Warren and …
4. Kamala Harris ↔️
Harris moves up a spot to fourth, as she continues to enjoy a stronger polling lead over the candidate she displaces, Pete Buttigieg. Her performance at the California Democratic Party convention was roundly praised, eclipsed only by Cory Booker and Warren. On the other hand, her strong start raised expectations higher than perhaps was helpful, and she’s not getting headlines like this: ”After dazzling debut, Kamala Harris falls from top of presidential pack.” You can see from the poll trendlines above that Harris enjoyed a dramatic spike post-announcement, only to see a slow and steady decline. She’s not too far off Warren’s pace, but the Massachusetts senator has taken a different tack, starting low, and enjoying slow and steady growth.
Harris’s play is simple—steal Biden’s black vote. If she does that, then she’s a player all the way to the convention (while single-handedly slaying Biden, who has little support beyond that). How she tries to do that, we’ll see in the months ahead.
5. Pete Buttigieg ⬇️
The polling chart above shows a slow decline for Buttigieg, as he suffers from the entry of Joe Biden, or Warren’s own slow rise, or who knows what else. His impact on the race belies his low numbers. A small-liberal-college town mayor is a legit player in the Democratic
presidential race! That’s impressive, no matter what anyone thinks of him. And he has built a strong core of support among gay voters and academics, drawn to his inspiring personal story and facility with talking about difficult, divisive topics like abortion. Also …
he finally has an issues page! How he builds from this? It’s hard to see, but it’s a testament to his skills that he’s gotten this far. And given this national profile, if he ever does decide to run for governor or senator in Indiana, he’ll have all the money in the world to wage that battle.
The rest
Kirsten Gillibrand is the latest no-traction to go on Fox News, giving them unearned credibility … for what? There wasn’t a single vote to win, not a single Democrat to impress. It was utterly, and patently absurd, and reeking of desperation.
Cory Booker emerged from the California Democratic Party convention as the big winner. Is it enough of a moment to propel him him into relevance? Beats me. But here is his speech if you want to see it for yourself:
The rest? Non factors, too many whining about their ability to make the debates instead of justifying their inclusion in the race.
Update: Why not include ALL the top candidate’s speeches?