The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● TX-23: It’s the motherlode of Republican retirements: Texas Rep. Will Hurd, one of just three Republicans who represents a district that Hillary Clinton also carried, announced on Thursday night that he would not seek a fourth term in Congress next year.
That makes Hurd, the only black Republican in the House, the fifth GOP member of Congress to retire in the past week, and the tenth so far this year. Earlier on Thursday, Republicans fretted to Politico that further departures were imminent; Hurd did these worriers the favor of proving them right.
This accelerating exodus signals that GOP incumbents fear they have little chance of regaining the House next year, particularly with Donald Trump wreaking havoc at the top of the ballot. In Hurd’s case, though, he’s actually made it considerably more difficult for Republicans to actually take back the speaker’s gavel.
Hurd’s district, Texas’ 23rd, runs along the state’s southern border with Mexico and is heavily Latino. It favored Clinton by a 50-46 margin in 2016, making the incumbent one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the entire House. Last year, Hurd barely survived a challenge from Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, prevailing by just 926 votes, and in the Senate race, Democrat Beto O’Rourke beat Sen. Ted Cruz 52-47. Ortiz Jones was seeking a rematch, and Hurd was already at the very top of Democratic target lists.
Now, as an open seat, the 23rd District will be priority number one for Team Blue, if Republicans don’t simply decide to triage it altogether. But whether the GOP competes here or not, Hurd’s decision puts Republicans that much further away from picking up the 19 seats they need (or 20, if they lose a special election in North Carolina next month) to win back a majority in the House. And we still don’t know who’s going to retire next.
Senate
● NH-Sen: Corey Lewandowski, who was Donald Trump's first campaign manager, said Thursday that he was "very seriously" considering seeking the GOP nod to take on New Hampshire Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, though his statement misspelled his would-be foe's name as "Jeannie Shaheen."
WMUR reported earlier in the day that members of the RNC were talking about recruiting Lewandowski, which may come as unpleasant news to Senate Republicans. While the NRSC hasn't endorsed anyone, they recently helped retired Army Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc by hosting a meet-and-greet for him.
Lewandowski has run for office twice before, though neither campaign went well. In 1994, while he was a student at the University of Massachusetts, Lowell, Lewandowski lost the general election for an open seat in the Massachusetts House. In 2012, Lewandowski unsuccessfully campaigned for town treasurer in Windham, New Hampshire.
Lewandowski's political fortunes dramatically changed in 2015 when he became Trump's campaign manager. Lewandowski was in charge as Trump claimed the GOP nomination, though he managed to still cause problems for the campaign. Most notably in March of 2016, Lewandowski was charged with battery by police in Florida after he was accused of forcefully grabbing a Brietbart employee named Michelle Fields who attempted to ask Trump a question, an event that was recorded by a security camera. Lewandowski responded to the news by taking to Twitter and calling Fields "delusional" and claiming he'd never touched her.
Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg ended up dropping the charge, declaring, "While the evidence in this case is legally sufficient for the police to charge Mr. Lewandowski, it is not strong enough to meet the burden of a reasonable likelihood of a conviction." Trump was hardly angry with his campaign chief, and he even told prosecutors that Fields had touched him first and urged them to "do the right thing."
However, Trump was less tolerant of Lewandowski's day-to-day management of his campaign. In June, after donors, party strategists, and even the Trump children complained about the campaign's direction, Trump fired Lewandowski; security soon unceremoniously escorted the deposed campaign chief out of Trump Tower. Despite that high profile fall from grace, though, Lewandowski is still close to Trump, and he rode with him on Air Force One on Thursday.
Gubernatorial
● PR-Gov: Scandal-tarred Gov. Ricardo Rosselló is set to resign on Friday evening, and it still is unclear who will be Puerto Rico’s new governor at the end of the day. Rosselló nominated former Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi to become secretary of state, which is first in line for the governorship, and Pierluisi was sworn in to the new post on Wednesday. But Pierluisi has not yet been confirmed by either house of the legislature, and while the House has scheduled a vote on Friday, the Senate’s vote has been delayed until next week.
Senate President Thomas Rivera Schatz, who previously announced a 2020 bid for governor, opposes confirming Pierluisi, but also suggested that he might be able to succeed Rosselló on Friday anyway since he’s been sworn in as secretary of state. Several other legislators did not agree, and they argued that an unconfirmed secretary of state can’t become governor. The next person in the line of succession is Justice Secretary Wanda Vázquez, who said Thursday that, while she doesn’t want to be governor, she’d succeed Rosselló if necessary.
House
● AL-01: On Wednesday, the anti-tax Club for Growth endorsed former state Sen. Bill Hightower in the GOP primary for this safely red Gulf Coast seat. The move came days after the Club released a poll showing Hightower leading the primary field with 34% of the vote, while state Rep. Chris Pringle edged Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl 16-12 for the second place in a hypothetical runoff.
● AL-02: This week, state Rep. Will Dismukes and wealthy businessman Jeff Coleman each announced that they’d seek the GOP nod to succeed retiring Rep. Martha Roby in this safely red open seat. Dismukes is a Baptist minister who was elected to the legislature for the first time last year at the age of 28, and he declared in his kickoff, “When some in my party threatened me to vote for the gas tax increase, I stood firm and opposed the largest tax increase in Alabama history.”
Coleman owns and operates a global moving company, and the conservative site Yellowhammer News says that he has the ability to self-fund. Coleman also is the past president of the influential Business Council of Alabama and is the civilian aide to the secretary of the Army for southern Alabama, so he has some notable connections.
Former state Rep. Barry Moore, who challenged Roby in the primary last cycle, has an announcement set for Monday as well. Moore had trouble raising money last time, and he lost the race for the second GOP runoff spot 28-19 to former Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright.
● FL-27: On Thursday, 2018 GOP nominee Maria Elvira Salazar announced that she would seek a rematch against freshman Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala. Salazar kicked off her second campaign with an announcement video that misspelled her own name by directing viewers to "www.mariaelvriasalazar.com." As Florida Politics notes, that url will send you to Shalala's site. And as Daily Kos Elections contributor Drew Savicki points out, Salazar filed to run in the 26th District for some reason even though she said she'd be challenging Shalala again.
Salazar, who worked as a Spanish-language TV journalist, stepped up last cycle to help keep this Miami-area seat in GOP hands. This district had moved from 53-46 Obama all the way to 59-39 Clinton, and with longtime GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen retiring, it looked for a long time like it would be an easy Democratic flip. While Salazar raised a credible amount of money, both parties spent months running TV spots in the neighboring 26th District while ignoring this seat, a strong indication that neither side felt that the GOP could save it.
However, things changed in the fall. Democrats grumbled that Shalala's campaign had gone into "sleep mode" after she won the August primary, and they also griped that their candidate couldn't speak Spanish in a district with a large Cuban American population. Several polls showed a competitive race, and major outside groups began redeploying resources here in October: National Republicans ended up spending $1.77 million to their Democratic counterparts' $1.67 million.
Shalala ended up winning 52-46 in November, though according to analyst Matthew Isbell, she ran behind all five Democratic statewide candidates. Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, for example, carried the seat 56-44 during his unsuccessful re-election campaign, while gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum took it by a similar 55-44 margin.
However, Shalala may be in stronger shape now that she's the incumbent and the GOP nominee will need to share the ballot with Donald Trump. Shalala ended June with $548,000 in the bank.
● IN-05: The National Journal reports that former state Department of Workforce Development director Steve Braun is still considering running for the GOP nod to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Susan Brooks, and that he'll likely need to decide this month.
Braun lives in this seat, though he ran in the primary for the neighboring 4th District last year and lost to now-Rep. Jim Baird 37-29. Braun self-funded $830,000, which allowed him to decisively outspend Baird and the rest of the field. However, a small buy in support of Braun from a group called Citizens for a Strong America seems to have backfired very badly. Baird lost his left arm while serving in the Army in Vietnam, so it created a big stir when a CSA mailer argued that he had voted for a gas tax that cost Indiana a proverbial arm and a leg.
Braun is also the brother of Sen. Mike Braun, though that doesn't mean he can count on the new senator's support. Last year, Steve Braun contributed to the Senate campaign of then-Rep. Todd Rokita, whom he was running to succeed in the 4th District, rather than to his brother's ultimately successful bid.
● KY-06: Attorney and Marine veteran Josh Hicks announced this week that he would seek the Democratic nod to challenge GOP Rep. Andy Barr in this central Kentucky seat. Hicks touted how he grew up on a farm and worked for a year as an ironworker and rigger, declaring, "Not enough members of Congress have worked with their hands."
Hicks was a Republican until 2016, and he says that Donald Trump and the GOP's policies favoring the wealthy drove him to the Democrats. Last year, Hicks challenged GOP state Rep. Stan Lee in a seat that had backed Trump 52-41, and he lost in a close 51-49 contest. That same day, Barr won an expensive re-election contest against Democrat Amy McGrath 51-48 in a district that went for Trump 55-39.
● TX-11: On Wednesday, state Rep. Brooks Landgraf said he wasn't ruling out a bid to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Mike Conaway in this safely red seat. Landgraf said, "I am thankful for the confidence that so many West Texans have in me, and I will be happy to discuss my plans at the appropriate time."
● UT-04: This week, former radio host Jay Mcfarland announced that he'd seek the GOP nod to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams. Mcfarland, who recently left his radio show after nine years on the air, argued he could be a national voice for conservatives and a Republican answer to New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
A number of other Republicans are eyeing this seat including former Rep. Mia Love, who recently said that she felt Mcfarland's interest in running for office seemed to "come out of left field." Mcfarland replied this week that he doubted Love would run, and that he didn't see her as "a strong spokesperson for conservatism or for Utah values." Mcfarland added, "To me, you have to inspire people. You have to excite them about the cause." Former state party official Kathleen Anderson is also seeking the GOP nod.
● Retirements: Four House Republicans announced their retirements in July, and their colleagues fear that many more could be on their way out the door before too long. Just before Will Hurd's shock announcement on the first day of the new month, Politico's Melanie Zanona reported that, while no one knows who will be next to go, a few members have shown up on the retirement watch list.
Zanona lists a few older members who have attracted chatter about their plans: Alaska's Don Young, Kentucky's Hal Rogers, and Wisconsin's Jim Sensenbrenner. She also lists as retirement possibilities Oregon's Greg Walden and Michigan's Fred Upton, two members who are close to the party establishment.
Zanona goes on to name a trio of members who are facing potentially tough re-election campaigns: Missouri's Ann Wagner and Texas' Michael McCaul and Kenny Marchant. Finally, there's California's Duncan Hunter and New York's Chris Collins, who are under indictment and scheduled to go to trial well before Election Day.
Some of these members don't sound like they're going anywhere, though. McCaul announced that he would run again back in January, and Walden also denied he was thinking of retiring in April. So far, their fundraising says that they're telling the truth: McCaul raised $646,000 during the second quarter of 2019, while Walden took in $531,000. Young, who is the longest serving member of the House, also kicked off his re-election campaign in late June, and while he brought in just $163,000 for the quarter, that's more than what he raised two years ago.
However, the House GOP has learned the hard way that not everyone who says that and acts like they'll run again actually will run again. Back in 2017, both California Reps. Ed Royce and Darrell Issa raised plenty of cash ahead of what looked to be difficult re-election bids. That August, a Royce aide responded to rumors that his boss would retire by saying that Royce was "100% running for re-election." In November, Issa also told CNN that he was "100% certain" that he'd run again. The following January, the two congressmen announced within days of each other that they were actually 0% running for re-election, and Democrats went on to flip both their seats.
Two other Republicans have behaved the same way this cycle. In December, Roll Call wrote that Texas' Pete Olson was rumored to be considering retirement, but his chief of staff denied such claims. Last week, Olson announced he'd retire.
Also in December, the New York Times alluded to the possibility that two Republican women who had just been passed over for leadership positions in favor of male colleagues could decide to leave. One of those women was Indiana's Susan Brooks, who soon took over as head of recruitment for the NRCC and said in the early spring that she'd run again. In June, though, Brooks announced that she would retire without giving her colleagues at the NRCC any kind of heads-up. The other member the Times listed was Wagner.
So far, though, Wagner is very much acting like she's going to fight for her suburban St. Louis seat. Wagner hauled in a hefty $613,000 for the second quarter of 2019, which was more than all but 10 other House Republican incumbents. However, Wagner also famously raised millions for a planned 2018 Senate bid only to announce in July of 2017 that she'd stay in the House.
P.S. To stay on top of all the House retirement action, bookmark our open seat tracker, which we update immediately any time a member of Congress calls it quits.
Legislative
● VA State House: On Wednesday, the Virginia Department of Elections announced that it was too late for local Republicans to place Del. Nick Freitas' name on the general election ballot, potentially requiring the GOP to run a write-in campaign to keep from forfeiting Freitas' solidly red district this fall. Freitas vowed to appeal the decision to the state Board of Elections when it meets on Tuesday, adding that he's willing to wage a write-in effort.
Freitas officially ended his re-election campaign last month because he hadn't properly filed candidacy papers, but days later, the local Republican Party announced it would award him the GOP nomination anyway. Party officials hoped that, because Freitas had withdrawn before state election officials could disqualify him, state law would allow them to select him as their new nominee.
State law does allow a party to pick a new nominee if its original choice drops out or dies, but the question was whether Freitas' screw up meant that the district even had a GOP nominee in the first place who could withdraw. The elections board never certified Freitas as the nominee, but Republican officials argued that he became the party's official pick in March when no one else filed to take him on in the primary.
However, the Department of Elections rejected this line of thinking this week, saying that party leaders never had submitted a form saying that Freitas was the nominee—and to do so now was to do so too late. Amusingly, local Republican leader Bruce Kay insisted he had emailed Freitas' nomination papers to the state earlier this year … but that he'd sent it to an outdated address. However, Kay was unable to prove he'd sent this form out at all, claiming that computer problems had erased two years of his emails. (But his emails!)
The 30th District backed Donald Trump 60-36 and supported 2017 GOP gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie 61-38, so a well-financed write-in campaign would have a good chance of success. Still, Democrats will count it as a victory if the GOP has to divert resources from more competitive seats to hold this district, which Republicans shouldn't have had to devote even a second thought to.
