The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● 3Q Fundraising: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to unveil our new charts rounding up third-quarter fundraising numbers for every major party nominee for the House and the Senate!
We said two weeks ago that this fundraising quarter would be unlike any we’ve ever seen, and we were more right than we knew. Altogether, Democratic candidates competing in this year’s Senate races raised $401 million from donors while Republicans took in $163 million—a gulf that would have been simply unthinkable even during the 2018 blue wave. Democrats also spent $373 million compared to $195 million from Republicans and ended Sept. 30 with a $184 million to $141 million cash-on-hand lead.
Three upper-chamber candidates—all Democrats—beat the $38.1 million Senate quarterly fundraising record that was set by Beto O’Rourke just two years ago. The top honor by far goes to Jaime Harrison, who took in a truly stunning $57.2 million for his bid against South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. Graham, by contrast, raised just under half that with $28 million, which was the most of any Senate Republican up this year.
Campaign Action
The second-largest quarterly haul went to Maine’s Sara Gideon, who outpaced GOP Sen. Susan Collins by a lopsided $38.8 million to $7.9 million, while in Arizona, Mark Kelly outraised appointed Sen. Martha McSally $38.3 million to $22 million. Kentucky Democrat Amy McGrath was also not far O’Rourke’s mark, outraising Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell $35.4 million to $15.3 million.
The fundraising battle was similarly one-sided in favor of the Democrats in most other crucial Senate contests. In Iowa, Theresa Greenfield more than lapped Republican Joni Ernst by taking in $28.4 million compared to the senator’s $7.2 million. In North Carolina, Democrat Cal Cunningham outraised another GOP incumbent, Thom Tillis, $28 million to $6.2 million. Additionally, Colorado Democrat John Hickenlooper trounced Republican incumbent Cory Gardner, who looks like the underdog now more than ever, $22.3 million to $7.7 million.
Democrats also far outpaced Republican incumbents in contests where the GOP is still favored to win. Al Gross, an Alaska independent running as the Democratic nominee, took in $9.2 million compared to incumbent Dan Sullivan’s $1.7 million. In Georgia’s regularly-scheduled Senate race, Jon Ossoff outpaced Republican Sen. David Perdue $21.1 million to $5.6 million. Raphael Warnock, who is the most prominent Democrat in the Peach State’s crowded special election, took in $12.8 million, which was far more than any of the other contenders from either party.
Oh, and that wasn’t all. In Kansas, Democrat Barbara Bollier outraised Republican Roger Marshall $13.3 million to $2.9 million in a contest that her party hasn’t won since 1932. Montana Democrat Steve Bullock out-hauled Republican incumbent Steve Daines $26.5 million to $11.5 million, while Texas’ MJ Hegar outpaced Sen. John Cornyn $13.9 million to $6.9 million.
Even Alabama Sen. Doug Jones, who is the most vulnerable Democrat in the chamber by far, outpaced Republican Tommy Tuberville $10.3 million to $3.3 million. Democrat Mike Espy also outraised Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith $4.1 million to $816,000 in Mississippi for a contest that has attracted relatively little outside attention. In Louisiana, Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy did manage to outraise Adrian Perkins $1.4 million to $1.3 million, though Perkins’ total was notable in what’s become a reliably red state in federal elections.
The only competitive Senate race where the fundraising battle was close was Michigan, where Democratic incumbent Gary Peters edged out Republican John James $14.4 million to $14.3 million. This was still an improvement for Peters, though, who was outraised during the previous four fundraising quarters.
We’ll turn next to the House. While Democrats only outraised Republicans $226 million to $207 million across all 435 seats, that margin dramatically widens to $131 million to $95 million in the races that Daily Kos Elections rates as anything other than Safe for one party or the other. Democrats in these competitive races also outspent Republicans $171 million to $95 million over the quarter, and they enjoyed a $112 million to $75 million cash-on-hand lead on Sept. 30.
The top fundraiser in a competitive House race, though, was Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw in Texas’ 2nd Congressional, who outpaced Democrat Sima Ladjevardian $5.5 million to $1.4 million. Not far behind was California Rep. Katie Porter, who outraised Republican Greg Raths $5.2 million to $444,000 in the 45th District, an Orange County seat that was fiercely fought two years ago but that hasn’t attracted any major outside spending this time.
Race Ratings Changes
● Race Ratings: The final two weeks of the 2020 election are upon us, and with the political climate continuing to favor Democrats overall, Daily Kos Elections is moving our race ratings in 11 more contests—nine shift to the left, while two move towards the GOP. We also now have a total of 12 GOP-held Senate seats rated as Lean Republican or better for Democrats. You can find all our Senate, gubernatorial, and House ratings at each link.
● CO-Sen (Lean D to Likely D): With reports that the NRSC and the Senate Leadership Fund have both drastically scaled back their spending in Colorado's Senate race, Republicans have now all but abandoned Cory Gardner. Confirming the development, the top Democratic super PAC, Senate Majority PAC, has also cut seven figures from its planned advertising. Every single poll of this race has shown Gardner trailing Democrat John Hickenlooper, most by double digits. At this point, Colorado is simply too blue for a Republican with no real ability to distance himself from Donald Trump—like Gardner.
● TX-Sen (Likely R to Lean R): Democrat MJ Hegar not only swamped Republican Sen. John Cornyn two-to-one in fundraising over the last quarter, she just got a big vote of confidence from the Senate Majority PAC, which announced it would invest almost $9 million to support her bid—the first time outside Democratic groups have spent money on a Texas Senate race in forever. (Yep, even Beto didn't get that kind of love.)
All polls still have Cornyn ahead, and Texas is still Texas. But the gap has narrowed, and with presidential polling showing a near-tie, the once-unthinkable is now a whole lot more thinkable. Cornyn himself also seems to be feeling the heat: After spending four years positioning himself as nothing but an ardent Trump ally, the senator insisted to reporters over the weekend that he'd disagreed with the White House plenty of times but kept his dissent private.
● VT-Gov (Likely R to Safe R): Despite Vermont's deep blue hue in federal politics, the state has continued its long history of electing Republican governors, and Phil Scott has remained exceedingly popular, in part because of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Limited polling has shown him crushing his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman, and there's been no indication that outside groups plan to get involved here in the final weeks.
● CA-21 (Lean D to Tossup): Democrat TJ Cox narrowly unseated Republican Rep. David Valadao in one of the biggest upsets of 2018, and he faces a difficult campaign to stop Valadao from reclaiming California's 21st Congressional District this year.
The only recent poll we've seen out of this southern Central Valley seat was a mid-September American Viewpoint internal for the pro-Republican Congressional Leadership Fund that found Valadao ahead 49-38. It may seem implausible that Valadao could have a huge lead in a district that Trump lost 55-40, but Democrats have not responded with better numbers, and Politico also recently reported that this was one of only a few seats that Team Blue is "growing increasingly nervous" about.
There are some other factors that could complicate Cox's chances even in a good year for his party. National polls show Trump running better with Latino voters than he did four years ago, which could help him make up some ground in this heavily Latino district. And Valadao has always run ahead of the GOP ticket in past years, sometimes quite dramatically. Cox may still be the slight favorite to hang on, but a Valadao win would no longer be a surprise.
● FL-18 (Safe R to Likely R): Republican Rep. Brian Mast looked secure after he beat a well-funded opponent by a convincing 54-46 during last cycle's Democratic wave, but he faces another credible challenge this year from Navy veteran Pam Keith in Florida's 18th Congressional District.
A mid-September survey from St. Pete Polls found Mast ahead by a wide, but not insurmountable, 50-42 margin even as respondents narrowly favored Biden in a district that had backed Trump 53-44 four years earlier. An early October Keith internal from Clearview Research then showed her ahead 45-43, and Mast's allies haven't responded with alternate numbers. There has been no notable outside spending so far in this seat, which includes the Palm Beach area and the Treasure Coast to the north, but an upset is possible if Nov. 3 is a strong night for Team Blue.
● IL-13 (Lean R to Tossup): We had thought that Betsy Dirksen Londrigan's near-miss against Republican Rep. Rodney Davis in 2018 might have been a high-water mark for Democrats in central Illinois' 13th Congressional District, which isn't necessarily the most favorable sort of turf for Team Blue. But a recent survey for the DCCC found her leading Davis by 5 points in her rematch, after prior polls showed the race neck-and-neck, and we haven't seen any sort of GOP response.
The D-Trip has backed up its data with hard dollars: Along with the House Majority PAC, they've matched spending with the big outside Republican groups. This one is looking very close once again.
● MI-03 (Likely R to Lean R): Michigan's 3rd Congressional District hasn't been competitive in a general election in some time, but outside groups from both parties are spending serious amounts of money in the contest to succeed Republican-turned-independent-turned-Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash, who is retiring after a tumultuous career.
The few polls we've seen have shown an unsettled contest in this Grand Rapids-based seat between Democrat Hillary Scholten, an immigration attorney, and Republican Peter Meijer, whose family owns an eponymous retail chain with almost 200 locations. A mid-September internal from Global Strategy Group for Scholten's allies at House Majority PAC showed a 41-41 tie as Biden led 49-41 in a district that backed Trump 52-42 in 2016; weeks later, the Democratic nominee released numbers from ALG Research that had her ahead 44-42. Meijer did get better news, though, when a late September survey from the conservative firm We Ask America had him leading 48-41 as Biden and Trump deadlocked 47-47.
This seat is still red enough that Meijer remains the frontrunner, but Scholten's chances are as strong as they've ever been.
● NC-08 (Likely R to Lean R): While Republican Rep. Richard Hudson is still the favorite against Democrat Pat Timmons-Goodson, a former justice on the state Supreme Court, major outside groups on both sides have begun spending serious amounts of money late in the contest for North Carolina's 8th Congressional District.
The only two polls we've seen in recent weeks have both come from Democrats, and they've each shown a close race. A late September internal from Brilliant Corners for Timmons-Goodson showed Hudson up 44-42 as Trump led only 47-44 in a seat he took 53-44 four years ago. An early October DCCC Analytics poll was even more favorable: It found Timmons-Goodson and Biden up 42-39 and 47-43, respectively. Republicans have yet to release contradictory numbers.
There's also one other factor that could complicate Hudson's path in this seat, which includes Fayetteville and some of Charlotte's suburbs: Because of court-supervised redistricting, the Republican is seeking re-election in a seat where a quarter of all residents are new to him, which could prevent him from enjoying the full benefits of incumbency.
● SC-01 (Tossup to Lean D): Freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham won South Carolina's coastal 1st Congressional District in one of the bigger upsets of 2018, but he's the frontrunner going into the final weeks of his bid for re-election.
An early October DCCC internal from GQR found Cunningham leading GOP state Rep. Nancy Mace by a wide 55-42 margin as respondents backed Biden 48-47 in a district that Trump took 53-40 last time. Mace responded the following week with a Strategic National survey that showed her ahead 47-45 as Trump led 47-44, but even fellow Republicans don't seem to believe she's actually doing that well: Last week, Politico recently reported that Republicans privately believe Mace's prospects are "dimming."
Major outside groups on both sides are still spending heavily here, and a Mace win is still very possible, but Cunningham, for perhaps the first time in his political career, is the favorite.
● TX-32 (Lean D to Likely D): Freshman Democratic Rep. Colin Allred flipped Texas' 32nd District after a very expensive 2018 battle, but it will be hard for businesswoman Genevieve Collins to reclaim it for her party.
This historically red suburban North Dallas seat swung from 57-41 Romney to 49-47 Clinton, and diverse and well-educated constituencies like this have only become more hostile to the GOP over the last four years. Major outside groups also aren't acting like this will be close: While both parties are pouring millions into the neighboring 24th District, they've steered clear of this race so far. Collins still has the resources to run a credible campaign on her own, but it would be a big surprise if she emerged victorious.
● WA-03 (Likely R to Lean R): Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler is still the frontrunner against Democrat Carolyn Long, whom she defeated 53-47 in 2018, but their rematch for southern Washington's 3rd Congressional District has been looking more competitive recently.
In late September, Long released an internal from GQR that found Herrera Beutler up 49-47 as Trump led just 48-47 in a district he took 50-43 in 2016. That's the only survey we've seen here in some time, but major outside groups are acting like this seat is very much in play. The NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund went on the air on Oct. 13 to aid the congresswoman, the very same day the DCCC released its first anti-Herrera Beutler ads. Altogether, national GOP groups spent almost $900,000 during the week of Oct. 12, while the DCCC dropped $470,000 during that time.
Herrera Beutler still has the advantage, though, in this conservative seat. The incumbent pulled off a healthy win last cycle, and even Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell narrowly lost the 3rd District 51-49 that year while she was winning statewide in a 58-42 landslide. However, if 2020 turns out to be a stronger year for Team Blue than 2018 was, Long will have an opportunity to notch an upset.
Senate
● GA-Sen-A: Republican Sen. David Perdue used a Friday evening Trump rally to repeatedly mock the pronunciation of Kamala Harris' name, telling the crowd, "Kamala? Kamala? Kamala-mala-mala? I don't know. Whatever." Perdue's team unconvincingly insisted afterwards that Perdue really didn't know how Harris, who has been his colleague in the Senate for nearly four years, pronounced her first name.
The story made national news, and Democrat Jon Ossoff, who is challenging Perdue, said Sunday night that he'd raised $1.8 million over the last two days.
● ME-Sen: Democrat Sara Gideon's newest commercial stars none other than Barack Obama in what we believe is the former president's first spot for a downballot candidate this cycle. Obama tells the audience, "In Maine, you've got a big responsibility this year. Not only are you choosing who represents you in Washington, you could also determine which party controls the Senate." Obama goes on to extol Gideon's record fighting for the middle class.
● MI-Sen: As you peruse our fundraising tables for congressional races linked above, it's important to bear in mind that, at this late stage of the election cycle, cash-on-hand figures can be very misleading. Michigan's Senate race is a case in point: Democratic Sen. Gary Peters and his Republican opponent, John James, both raised around $14 million in the third quarter, but Peters finished with just $3.5 million in the bank versus $8.8 million for James.
That gap prompted some consternation on the left, but it shouldn't have. Peters outspent James by a huge margin during the quarter, $23 million to $15 million, and he was probably wise to do so. That’s because the vast majority of Peters' spending went toward advertising, meaning he likely was able to lock in cheaper rates by booking airtime early. Hoarding cash until the last minute, conversely, means you'll pay more to advertise, especially in a swing state like Michigan where the airwaves are already saturated.
So make sure you keep that "Spent" column in mind when you're comparing data. You can also click through to our fundraising charts in spreadsheet form to find an additional column, "Spent CTD," which will tell you how much each candidate has spent for the entire election cycle to date.
Meanwhile, the League of Conservation Voters and BlackPAC are spending a total of $900,000 on a mail program to aid Peters.
● SC-Sen: The Post and Courier reports that the Senate Leadership Fund has booked an additional $6.6 million to defend Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who looked completely safe just a few months ago, a move that takes the group's total planned investment to $16.6 million.
Meanwhile, Democrat Jaime Harrison is airing his opening TV spot aimed at influencing conservative voters skeptical of Graham to back Constitution Party nominee Bill Bledsoe, who remains on the ballot even though he dropped out earlier this month and endorsed the incumbent.
The narrator declares that Graham has changed after a quarter-century in D.C. and millions from special interests before saying, "But beware, right-wing Constitution Party candidate Dr. Bill Bledsoe is also on the ballot." He continues, "Bledsoe opposes all abortions, and Bledsoe supported Trump from day one. Bledsoe believes any gun control law infringes upon the Second Amendment."
● Senate Forecast: In this week's installment of the Daily Kos Elections Senate Forecast, David Jarman takes another look at Georgia, though it's too early to know whether David Perdue's racist gaffe on Friday will have much of an impact on that race's trajectory, which (like every Senate race) is guided more than ever by nationwide trends.
● Polls:
- AK-Sen: Patinkin Research Strategies (D): Al Gross (D): 47, Dan Sullivan (R-inc): 46 (49-46 Trump)
- AL-Sen: FM3 (D) for Doug Jones: Doug Jones (D-inc) 48, Tommy Tuberville (R) 47 (May: 47-44 Tuberville)
- AZ-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Mark Kelly (D): 52, Martha McSally (R-inc): 41 (50-47 Biden) (Sept.: 49-42 Kelly)
- CO-Sen: RBI Strategies & Research (D): John Hickenlooper (D): 53, Cory Gardner (R-inc): 39, Raymon Doane (55-38 Biden)
- CO-Sen: YouGov for University of Colorado: Hickenlooper (D): 48, Gardner (R-inc): 40 (47-38 Biden)
- MI-Sen: HarrisX for Harvard/ The Hill: Gary Peters (D-inc): 50, John James (R): 43 (54-43 Biden)
- MI-Sen: Mitchell Research (R) for MIRS: Peters (D-inc): 49, James (R): 43 (51-41 Biden)
- MI-Sen: Trafalgar Group (R): James (R): 48, Peters (D-inc): 47 (Sept.: 48-47 James)
- MT-Sen: RMG Research for Political IQ: Steve Daines (R-inc): 49, Steve Bullock (D): 47
- VA-Sen: Cygnal (R) for Daniel Gade: Mark Warner (D-inc): 51, Daniel Gade (R): 44 (51-42 Biden)
AL-Sen: The only other poll we’ve seen this month was an early October survey from Auburn University at Montgomery at the beginning of the month had Tommy Tuberville beating Sen. Doug Jones 54-42.
Gubernatorial
● MO-Gov: Remington Research (R) for Missouri Scout: Mike Parson (R-inc): 51, Nicole Galloway (D): 43 (51-45 Trump) (early Oct.: 51-44 Parson)
● PR-Gov: The Puerto Rico Herald has released a new poll of next month's gubernatorial election in Puerto Rico from the Democratic firm Beacon Research that finds Pedro Pierluisi, the nominee of the pro-statehood New Progressive Party, with a 31-24 edge over Carlos Delgado of the pro-commonwealth Popular Democratic Party.
Another 9% goes to Alexandra Lúgaro of the Citizens' Victory Movement, a party that NPR describes as "promoting anti-colonialism and a constitutional assembly to make a final decision on Puerto Rico's political relationship with the United States," with 18% undecided and the balance going to other contenders. Last month, Beacon gave Pierluisi a 29-27 edge over Delgado.
House
● TX-22, TX-24: Politico reports that Everytown for Gun Safety will spend a total of $2 million to aid Democrats Sri Preston Kulkarni and Candace Valenzuela.
● Independent Expenditures: Our newest weekly roundup of independent expenditures made by the "Big Four" House groups (the DCCC, House Majority PAC, NRCC, and Congressional Leadership Fund) is now available for you to pore over. Over the last week, these organizations dumped nearly $77 million more into House races nationwide, with $38.7 million coming from Republicans and a similar $38.0 million from Team Blue. You can see these newest expenditures in columns N through V in our spreadsheet.
For the most part, the major groups continued to spend in races where they'd already done so, but there were some notable exceptions. There was no outside spending in Washington's 3rd Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler faces a rematch with Democrat Carolyn Long, until last week. However, national GOP groups have now spent almost $900,000 there, while the DCCC deployed $470,000.
On the Democratic side, this was also the first week that outside groups spent against Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania's 1st District. For the GOP, this period marked the first time they spent to defend Republican Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania's 10th District or to hold Colorado's open 3rd District. This was also the first week that Republicans spent against Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran in Arizona's 1st District or to retake Michigan's open 3rd District, which is held by Republican-turned-Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash.
Meanwhile, the district with the most new spending over the last week was New York's 11th District with just over $3.6 million in total, with $2 million coming from Democratic groups (the most of any seat over the week) and the balance from Republicans looking to beat Democratic Rep. Max Rose. The biggest Republican spending spree during that time, meanwhile, came in Florida's 26th District, where Team Red spent $1.8 million against Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell compared to $1.3 million from Team Blue to aid her.
You can also find a summary of all spending to date in columns D through L. The seat that's seen the biggest flood of money so far is a Democratic-held one, Iowa's open 2nd District, at $10.7 million total. Overall, the two Republicans groups have deployed $131 million so far, while Democrats were close behind at $128 million.
● Polls:
- CA-04: Lake Research (D) for Brynne Kennedy (D): Tom McClintock (R-inc): 49, Brynne Kennedy (D): 45 (47-46 Trump) (July: 45-42 McClintock)
- CA-39: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Young Kim: Young Kim (R): 47, Gil Cisneros (D-inc): 46 (July: 47-45 Cisneros)
- MN-02: Normington Petts (D) for Angie Craig: Angie Craig (D-inc): 53, Tyler Kistner (R): 35, Adam Weeks (Legal Marijuana Now): 4 (55-39 Biden)
- NY-18: GSG (D) for Sean Patrick Maloney: Sean Patrick Maloney (D-inc): 53, Chele Farley (R): 35 (50-43 Biden)
- PA-08: Co/Efficient Strategies (R) for Jim Bognet: Matt Cartwright (D-inc): 48, Jim Bognet (R): 43 (48-46 Biden)
- SC-01: Strategic National (R) for Nancy Mace: Nancy Mace (R): 47, Joe Cunningham (D-inc): 45 (47-44 Trump)
- UT-04: RMG Research for Deseret News/University of Utah: Burgess Owens (R): 46, Ben McAdams (D-inc): 45, John Molnar (L): 3 (Sept.: 45-41 McAdams)
CA-39: We haven’t seen any numbers from any other pollsters for the rematch between freshman Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros and Young Kim. Cisneros narrowly beat Kim 52-48 last cycle in an expensive race for this 51-43 Clinton seat in the San Gabriel Valley and northern Orange County, but while both candidates are once again very well-funded, only national Democrats have been spending here so far.
MN-02: This is the first poll we’ve seen in months of the contest for this suburban Twin Cities seat. This contest was briefly pushed to February after Legal Marijuana Now nominee Adam Weeks died, but a federal judge sided with Rep. Angie Craig on Oct. 9 and reinstated it for Nov. 3 (Tyler Kistner is appealing). So far, there has not been any outside spending on either side in this district, which Trump narrowly carried four years ago but swung to the left in 2018.
PA-08: This is the first poll we’ve seen from a contest that both parties seem to think heavily favors Rep. Matt Cartwright. The DCCC, which has not spent anything here, cut back its ad reservations last month, though its allies at House Majority PAC have spent $290,000 here so far. Major GOP outside groups, meanwhile, have yet to deploy anything to aid Jim Bognet.
However, while Bognet released this poll to argue he has a shot at Cartwright, he may have unintentionally given his party some truly bad news out of the Keystone State. Donald Trump carried this district, which includes Joe Biden’s hometown of Scranton, 53-44 as he was narrowly carrying Pennsylvania, and it would be tough for him to repeat that win if this seat is close next month.
UT-04: The only other poll we’ve seen since Labor Day was a mid-September poll from Lighthouse Research for the Utah Debate Commission that had Rep. Ben McAdams up 47-37.
mayoral
● Anchorage, AK Mayor: The Anchorage Assembly, which is the local city council, reorganized on Friday and made Austin Quinn-Davidson its new chair, which will elevate her to the mayor’s office once Democratic incumbent Ethan Berkowitz’s resignation takes effect on Oct. 23.
Quinn-Davidson was not registered with either party when she successfully campaigned for her Assembly seat in a 2018 special, but she had the support of a number of progressives and made use of data from the state Democratic Party. Quinn-Davidson will be the first woman to serve as mayor of Alaska’s largest city as well as its first LGBTQ leader.
It’s not clear yet, though, how long Quinn-Davidson’s tenure will last, as municipal attorney Kate Vogel said Friday that the city charter is ambiguous about whether or not a special election is necessary in January. The regularly scheduled mayoral election is set for April 6, so if a special occurred, the winner would only have a few months in office before they were up for a full three-year term (Anchorage is the only major city in America we know of where mayoral terms last for an odd number of years).
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