The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NJ-07: Freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski said last week that he'd received death threats from followers of the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory in large part because of an NRCC spot ad falsely accusing him of lobbying against a national sex offender registry, and the NRCC has responded by running a new spot that repeats the very same lie.
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The narrator declares that "public records prove Malinowski worked as the top lobbyist for a radical group that opposed the national sex offender registry because it would cause great harm to convicted sexual offenders." The ad continues, "Tom Malinowski led an effort to stop the law that lets you know if there is a child molester living on your street."
Multiple colleagues of Malinowski's from his time as Washington advocacy director for Human Rights Watch say that he hadn't played any role when the organization lobbied against the 2006 legislation that the NRCC is pretending he tried to stop, and HRW has also confirmed this. HRW did not even object to the creation of a national sex offender registry: Instead, it opposed that year's crime bill because it would have required low-level offenders, such as anyone charged with public urination, to register as sex offenders "regardless of whether they have lived offense-free for decades."
The NRCC, though, doesn't remotely care about these facts or the danger that these commercials could pose to Malinowski. The congressman told Buzzfeed that when he confronted NRCC chair Tom Emmer on the House floor about the death threats he'd received from QAnon acolytes, Emmer "said, 'I don't know what Q is' and walked away. … He said, 'I can't be responsible for, you know, how people use our stuff and I don't know what that is." After Buzzfeed's story was published, the NRCC even retweeted it and repeated its lies about Malinowski.
3Q Fundraising
● MS-Sen: Mike Espy (D): $4 million raised
● IL-06: Jeanne Ives (R): $1 million raised
● MO-02: Jill Schupp (D): $1.9 million raised
● NC-08: Pat Timmons-Goodson (D): $1.7 million raised, $580,000 cash-on-hand
● NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R-inc): $3 million raised, $4 million cash-on-hand; Tedra Cobb (D): $1.2 million raised, $1.4 million cash-on-hand
● OH-10: Desiree Tims (D): $978,000 raised
● OK-05: Stephanie Bice (R): $1.5 million raised
● PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R-inc): $900,000 raised, $1.3 million cash-on-hand; Christina Finello (D): $925,000 raised
● TX-21: Wendy Davis (D): $3.4 million raised
● TX-22: Sri Preston Kulkarni (D): $2.1 million raised
● WA-10: Marilyn Strickland (D): $800,000 raised
Senate
● LA-Sen: The super PAC Louisiana Legacy has launched a $411,000 ad buy in support of Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy, which makes it the first outside group to get involved on either side. We do not yet have a copy of the commercial.
● NC-Sen: The conservative Senate Leadership Fund is up with the first TV ad of the race going after Democrat Cal Cunningham for exchanging romantic texts with a woman who is not his wife, and the Charlotte Observer reports that the super PAC is putting $4 million behind this ad campaign. The commercial features clips of reporters talking about the story before a narrator asks, “What else is he hiding?”
● Polls:
NC-Sen: Both Ipsos and East Carolina University had started their polls prior to the evening of Oct. 2, when Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announced that he had tested positive for COVID-19 and Democrat Cal Cunningham confirmed that he'd sent romantic texts to a woman who was not his wife.
ECU is out with the first poll that's been released since June that gives Tillis any sort of lead, though the school has generally found the senator with better numbers than most other pollsters have.
Gubernatorial
● Polls:
NH-Gov: While ARG finds Republican Gov. Chris Sununu well ahead, it's also the first firm to find a single-digit race since Dan Feltes won the Democratic primary almost a month ago. In late September, YouGov gave Sununu a 60-34 edge, while a University of New Hampshire survey completed around that same time showed the incumbent up 55-37.
House
● CA-21: The NRCC is continuing to air commercials against Democratic Rep. TJ Cox focusing on tax liens, and the incumbent is up with a spot defending himself and going after Republican David Valadao's own business background.
The narrator argues that Valadao is hiding a "a business so unsafe, a worker lost his arm." The ad continues, "In Congress, Valadao secured a $ 6 million loan for his business, got sued for fraud, then stuck taxpayers with the bill." The narrator then says of the Democrat, "TJ Cox paid every penny of his taxes, built health clinics across the Central Valley, and he's fighting to make healthcare more affordable for us."
● FL-18: Republican Rep. Brian Mast apologized back in August after Facebook comments from 2009 and 2011 surfaced where he joked about rape and sex with underage girls, and Democrat Pam Keith is now running a commercial on the story.
As a picture of Jeffrey Epstein appears on screen, the narrator reads out, "I'm so proud of you! I hope you hook up with at least fifteen 15-year-olds over there … it's legal there right?" and, "How about don't turn this rape into a murder." Another narrator jumps in, "No, those aren't the words of this convicted sexual predator. They're the words of disgraced Congressman Brian Mast."
Mast himself is airing a positive commercial where he appears with a woman named Harmony Allen, who tells the audience that the congressman joined her fight for justice after the man who raped her was released from prison on a technicality.
● MN-02: Republican Tyler Kistner stopped advertising almost two weeks ago after Democratic Secretary of State Steve Simon announced that this election was being postponed until February due to the death of Legal Marijuana Now Party candidate Adam Weeks, but Kistner has decided to return to the airwaves this week even though the date of this contest remains uncertain.
Kistner argues in his spot that Democratic Rep. Angie Craig backs "dangerous plans to defund the police," an idea that Craig in reality opposes. Craig, who filed a federal lawsuit last week challenging the postponement, has continued to run commercials.
● MO-02: EMILY's List has launched a $835,000 ad buy, and its spot argues that Republican Rep. Ann Wagner has become extremely wealthy during her decades in politics. The narrator also goes after Wagner's special interest ties and partisan voting record.
● NJ-02: Downballot Republicans have aired relatively few ads tying their Democratic opponents to Joe Biden, so it's a bit surprising that the Congressional Leadership Fund is attempting that tactic in this South Jersey seat. The spot argues that the D.C. liberals backing Amy Kennedy are "teaming up with Biden for the largest tax increase in American history" and want to pass "a radical agenda."
New Jersey's 2nd District swung from 54-45 Obama to 51-46 Trump, but it seems to be moving back to the left. On Monday, Monmouth University released a survey that found Biden up 48-45 as Kennedy led Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew 49-44, and Kennedy and her allies have publicized their own polls showing both her and Biden with the edge. No Republican groups, including CLF, have unveiled any numbers here, but CLF seems to be betting that the top of the ticket is in better shape.
● NY-22: Republican Claudia Tenney's new commercial features audio of Donald Trump saying of the Democratic incumbent, "Anthony Brindisi turned out to be a total disaster." The audience goes on to hear Trump say that the congressman almost sounded like he was a Republican "only to betray the people of upstate New York by voting for the impeachment." Trump carried this seat 55-39 four years ago, and Brindisi has been running ads touting his ability to work across party lines.
● NY-23: Democrat Tracy Mitrano has released a Public Policy Polling survey that shows Republican Rep. Tom Reed ahead only 47-40 in a contest that hasn't attracted much outside attention; the sample also favors Donald Trump just 50-45 in a western New York seat he carried 55-40 in 2016. The only other poll we've seen here was a July Mitrano internal from GSG that had Reed up 50-38.
Reed beat Mitrano 54-46 last cycle, and he's at least taking their rematch seriously enough to go on the air with a negative ad. Reed's spot ties Mitrano to Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who lost this seat 55-37 in 2018.
● TX-21: The Texas Tribune reports that a newly formed conservative group called Stand With Texas has launched a TV spot attacking Democrat Wendy Davis over her 13-hour filibuster to stop an anti-abortion bill in 2013, which Davis has been talking about in her own advertisements. There is no word on the size of the buy.
● Polls:
- FL-16: Data Targeting (R) for Vern Buchanan: Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 53, Margaret Good (D): 37 (Aug.: 51-35 Buchanan)
- NC-09: LOC Wick (D) for Left of Center PAC: Cynthia Wallace (D): 34, Dan Bishop (R-inc): 30 (54-43 Biden)
FL-16: Earlier this week, Democrat Margaret Good released an internal from GSG that showed Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan ahead by a considerably smaller 49-43 margin.
NC-09: This is the very first poll we’ve seen of the contest between Republican Rep. Dan Bishop and Democrat Cynthia Wallace, who works as a financial adviser. Neither party has been acting like this race is competitive, though, and there are some reasons to be cautious about this poll giving Wallace the edge.
The pollster asked a few issue questions before getting to the horserace that could have influenced respondents. After voters were quizzed if the country was on the right or wrong track, the 58% who said wrong were asked whether Trump or Biden was “more likely to put the country back on track?” (They overwhelmingly picked Biden.) The poll then inquired, “Do you feel safer today than you did 4 years ago,” and “How likely are the California wildfires a result of climate change” before it got to the election matchups.
This seat, which is based in the Sandhills and Charlotte suburbs, also backed Donald Trump 54-43 four years ago, so it would be quite a massive swing to the left if Biden won it by a similar amount. Finally, LOC Wick finds 37% undecided, which is a massive amount of uncommitted voters for a poll done just a month ahead of Election Day.
Mayoral
● Portland, OR Mayor: The local firm DHM Research has the first poll of this contest that we’ve seen in months, and it finds urban policy consultant Sarah Iannarone beating Mayor Ted Wheeler 41-30 in the Nov. 3 race. This survey was conducted for the Portland Business Alliance, which supports the incumbent.
Wheeler outpaced Iannarone 49-24 in May’s nonpartisan race. In the months since then, though, Iannarone has argued that Wheeler and the local police have poorly handed the largely peaceful protests in Portland; the challenger even tweeted in July, "Goddamn tired of watching reporters, medics, legal observers, peaceful protesters, and, yes, vandals getting targeted, arrested & assaulted by Portland Police. F*ck you, Ted Wheeler, seriously.”
Other Races
● Statewide Elections: While most races for statewide office at the non-federal level take place in midterm years, 13 different states are holding elections for 66 different posts next month. These elections cover a dozen different offices, from governor and attorney general to insurance commissioner and schools superintendent.
In total, 25 of these positions are held by Democrats and 38 by Republicans, with two positions officially nonpartisan. These figures include four lieutenant governors who are elected on a joint ticket with their state's governor.
You can see exactly which offices are up in November on this chart, which we've adapted with permission from Nathaniel Rakich's comprehensive calendar showing the timetable for statewide elections for all 50 states.
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