The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Race Ratings Changes: We have less than a month to go before Election Day, and with the political environment only getting worse for Republicans, Daily Kos Elections is moving our race ratings in 10 contests in the direction of the Democrats—including several contests that were once beyond the fringe but are now coming online. You can find all our Senate, gubernatorial, and House ratings at each link.
● SC-02 (Safe R to Likely R): Republican Rep. Joe Wilson has gone a decade without a serious Democratic opponent in South Carolina’s 2nd District, but attorney Adair Ford Boroughs has raised a credible amount of money for this contest.
This seat, which is based in the Augusta and Columbia suburbs, backed Donald Trump 56-39, so it’s very tough turf for Team Blue. However, with Senate candidate Jaime Harrison running a very strong statewide campaign, it’s possible that Democrats will perform better here than they have in a long time. It would still be difficult for Boroughs to defeat Wilson, who hasn’t made much news since he infamously screamed “You lie!” at Barack Obama during a congressional address in 2009, but this contest is worth keeping an eye on.
Campaign Action
● KS-Sen (Likely R to Lean R): Well, we were wrong: Like many other analysts and operatives in both parties, we had thought that Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier only had a shot at flipping Kansas’ open Senate seat if Republicans nominated former secretary of state and perennial bungler Kris Kobach. Yet two months after Rep. Roger Marshall beat Kobach for the Republican nomination, this race not only remains on the board, it's gotten more competitive than ever.
Almost every survey released since the primary, including a mid-September poll from Marshall’s own allies, has shown a tight contest, and both sides are behaving accordingly. Outside Democratic groups are spending heavily, and national Republicans have likewise continued to pour in cash to aid Marshall—money they’d certainly rather be using elsewhere at a time when so many other GOP-held Senate seats are at risk.
Marshall still has the upper hand in a state that has given its electoral votes to the Republicans in every presidential election since 1968 and almost certainly will do so again. However, the congressman is in much weaker shape than he ought to be, and Bollier, who was a moderate Republican herself until two years ago, could win over enough ticket splitters to prevail.
● SC-Sen (Likely R to Lean R): Almost every poll out of South Carolina has shown a tight Senate race between Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison, who has been massively outspending his opponent. Outside groups on both sides have taken notice and have begun dumping millions into a state that hasn’t elected a single Democrat to statewide office since 2006.
It would, of course, still represent a major upset if Graham lost. South Carolina is likely to give its electoral votes to the GOP ticket (though that race is unusually close, too), so the burden is on Harrison to win over enough crossover support to prevail next month. And while almost every poll shows that a significant number of conservatives distrust Graham, his high-profile role as chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee gives him a chance to win over skeptics during the Supreme Court confirmation fight. Harrison, though, has been running a very strong race against the three-term senator, and if anyone can pull off a surprise, he can.
● AR-02 (Likely R to Lean R): Republican Rep. French Hill faces a well-funded challenge from Democrat Joyce Elliott in Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District, a Little Rock-area seat that backed Donald Trump 52-42 four years ago. A series of recent polls have all shown a tight contest here: An early September survey for Hendrix College found Hill ahead just 48-46 as Joe Biden led 49-45, while a Brilliant Corners poll conducted weeks later for national Democratic groups found Elliott ahead by that very same margin with Biden up 49-46. A late September Elliott internal from ALG Research fell right in the middle by showing a 48-48 tie.
National Republicans haven’t released contradictory numbers, and the Congressional Leadership Fund’s recent decision to book $500,000 in advertising time here is the best indicator that the GOP's own polls also find things competitive. National Democrats agree since they too are running ads in this district. This seat is still tough turf for Team Blue, and Hill himself turned back a credible challenger 52-46 during the 2018 Democratic wave, but Elliott is one to watch.
● AZ-06 (Lean R to Tossup): Republican Rep. David Schweikert has always easily won re-election in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, a seat based in Scottsdale and north Phoenix that supported Donald Trump 52-42, but he’s in for the fight of his political career against Democrat Hiral Tipirneni.
In late July, Schweikert finalized a deal with the House Ethics Committee under which he accepted a formal reprimand and admitted to 11 different violations of congressional rules and campaign finance laws. Tipirneni and her allies have been running ads portraying the congressman as corrupt, while Schweikert's burdensome legal bills as a result of the two year-long investigation have left him with limited resources to respond.
While Schweikert is in a bad place, he could still prevail in this historically red seat. Tipirneni and national Democrats have released several polls that show a close contest, and some of them even find the incumbent still ahead. Those surveys, though, also find a close presidential race in this well-educated suburban district, which further complicates Schweikert’s task.
● MN-01 (Lean R to Tossup): Republican Jim Hagedorn defeated Democrat Dan Feehan 50.1-49.7 in a 2018 open seat contest for Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, and their rematch this cycle looks like it will be just as competitive. Over the last few months Feehan and his allies have publicized a trio of polls showing a tight race, while Hagedorn waited until midsummer to release an antediluvian survey from early March conducted before the pandemic upended American life. Both parties are also continuing to spend millions in this southern Minnesota district.
This seat swung from 50-48 Obama to 53-39 Trump, but there’s also reason to think that it’s moving back to the left. Most polls find Joe Biden doing considerably better than Hillary Clinton statewide as well as in predominantly white rural areas like this. That’s potentially very bad news for Hagedorn, who could be in for trouble if Biden takes the 1st District this time.
● NJ-02 (Lean R to Tossup): If freshman Rep. Jeff Van Drew thought that his decision to leave the Democratic Party last year would ensure him an easy re-election in New Jersey’s 2nd District, he was very wrong.
Democrat Amy Kennedy and her allies have published several polls showing her ahead, while Joe Biden also holds the edge in a South Jersey seat that favored Donald Trump 51-46. Monmouth University also released an independent survey in early October that gave Kennedy and Biden a 49-44 and 48-45 edge, respectively. If Republicans have better polling, they have not shared it.
● OH-01 (Lean R to Tossup): Republicans gerrymandered Ohio’s 1st Congressional District at the start of the decade to keep Rep. Steve Chabot in office as long as he wanted, but Team Blue’s growing strength in the suburbs is threatening his hold on this Cincinnati-area seat.
Democrat Kate Schroder and her allies have released polls showing her in a close race with Chabot as Joe Biden enjoys a small lead in a district that backed Donald Trump 51-45; Republicans, by contrast, have yet to drop any numbers here. Major outside groups from both sides have also begun airing commercials here in recent weeks in another sign that things are tight.
● PA-07 (Lean D to Likely D): Freshman Democratic Rep. Susan Wild decisively flipped Pennsylvania's 7th District last cycle, and it will be hard for Republicans to deny her a second term. A late September poll from Muhlenberg College found Wild up 52-39, while Joe Biden led 51-44 in this Lehigh Valley seat that narrowly backed Hillary Clinton 49-48. While we haven’t seen any other numbers here, the lack of any serious outside spending from either party indicates that the big players on both sides don't see this as a particularly competitive race.
● VA-05 (Likely R to Lean R): Democrat Cameron Webb and his allies have released a trio of polls showing him only narrowly trailing Republican Bob Good in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, a seat that stretches from Charlottesville to the south-central part of the state. Republicans haven’t responded with better numbers, and the Congressional Leadership Fund’s decision to book $750,000 here in late September indicates that they’re also seeing a competitive contest.
It will still be difficult for Webb to win in a seat this red. Trump carried the district 53-42, and even Corey Stewart won 50-48 here while he was losing the 2018 Senate race to Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine by a brutal 57-41 margin statewide. Webb, though, is running a strong campaign, and he could achieve an upset.
3Q Fundraising
● KY-Sen: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): $15.6 million raised, $13.8 million cash on hand
● FL-27: Donna Shalala (D-inc): $800,000 raised
● IA-01: Ashley Hinson (R): $1.6 million raised, $725,000 cash-on-hand
● IN-05: Christina Hale (D): $1.7 million raised:
● MN-07: Michelle Fischbach (R): $1 million raised
● MT-AL: Kathleen Williams (D): $2.3 million raised
● OH-01: Kate Schroder (D): $1.7 million raised
● OK-05: Kendra Horn (D-inc): $1.4 million raised
● TX-02: Dan Crenshaw (R-inc): $5.5 million raised; Sima Ladjevardian (D): $1.4 million raised
● TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D): $1.7 million raised
● VA-07: Abigail Spanberger (D-inc): $2.4 million raised; Nick Freitas (R): $1.8 million raised, $700,000 cash-on-hand
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Democrat Mark Kelly's newest commercial stars Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and she has some choice words about the Republican she beat two years ago. "Arizonans know that Martha McSally will say anything to get elected," Sinema says of the appointed incumbent, "Her false attacks against me were desperate and over the top. Now she's doing the same to Mark Kelly."
Sinema continues, "But Martha's worst lies are the ones about her own record. She voted to eliminate protections for preexisting health conditions." The Democrat concludes, "An Arizona senator should be an independent voice that puts everyday people first. That's why I support Mark."
● KS-Sen: The Democratic group Duty and Country, which is affiliated with Senate Majority PAC, announced Monday that it would spend $5.5 million on TV spots to aid Democrat Barbara Bollier as well as another $2 million for digital advertising.
Politico reports that the only other serious pro-Bollier spending since the August primary has been $2.6 million from EMILY's List. The conservative Senate Leadership Fund, meanwhile, has spent or reserved $12 million for the fall, while its allies at One Nation deployed $4 million on positive ads for Republican Roger Marshall after his primary.
● NC-Sen: On Friday evening, Democrat Cal Cunningham confirmed that he’d sent and received romantic texts from a public relations strategist who was not his wife, and he also made it clear he’d continue his campaign. There is still no word on how the conservative site National File, which first posted screenshots of the messages, acquired the texts.
Just before the Cunningham news broke, however, Tillis became part of a much larger national story when he announced that he had tested positive for COVID-19, one of many top Republican officials who contracted the disease after attending a recent White House ceremony where Trump announced his nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Tillis’ campaign said Monday, “He is no longer exhibiting any symptoms and will continue to self-isolate.”
The evening before Tillis’ diagnosis, he and Cunningham appeared on the same debate stage. Cunningham’s campaign announced Saturday that he had tested negative but would be tested again on Monday morning.
The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling went into the field over the weekend and found Cunningham ahead 48-42 as Joe Biden led 50-46. The group last released numbers here in late July when it showed Cunningham up by a slightly-smaller 48-44 margin.
PPP also found that 58% of respondents said they had “heard or read anything about Cal Cunningham having a relationship with a woman who is not his wife,” and that 37% of the total sample said this information makes them less likely to back him. However, the pollster said the latter group favors Tillis 79-10, so the incumbent may not be able to gain much support from this story. And while Cunningham’s favorable numbers were slightly underwater at 37-39, Tillis posted a far worse 31-54 score.
● PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Republican Sen. Pat Toomey announced Monday that he would not seek re-election in 2022 or run for governor of Pennsylvania that year, a development that will have a massive impact on what will be two of the most important races of the next election cycle.
Toomey had said during his 2016 re-election campaign that this would "likely" be his last term in the Senate, but he didn't seem to be ready to leave elected office. Back in April, The Philadelphia Inquirer wrote, "One of the worst-kept secrets in Pennsylvania politics is that Sen. Pat Toomey is considering a run for governor in 2022." Local politicos were therefore caught off-guard on Sunday when the paper reported that Toomey would sit out both contests, a decision that the senator confirmed the following day.
Toomey's retirement will end his long career in this swing state that began with his 1994 election to the Allentown's Government Study Commission. Toomey went on to narrowly win the Republican primary for a competitive U.S. House seat, lose the 2004 Senate primary to Arlen Specter, and resurrect his political career six years later by narrowly winning the contest to succeed Specter. For more, check out our rundown on the highs and lows of Toomey's time in Pennsylvania politics.
While Toomey is leaving the state, though, there is no shortage of politicians from both parties who could run for Senate, for governor, or for both.
On the Democratic side, political observers universally see Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who is up for re-election next month, as an all-but-assured candidate to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf. Indeed, when Wolf was asked last year about the contest to succeed him, he pointed at Shapiro and said, "That's my guy right there." Shapiro, unsurprisingly, has been reticent to publicly talk about his future plans during this current campaign.
Lt. Gov. John Fetterman also responded to the Toomey news by saying, “I see two open lanes for 2022, but also the most consequential election of our lifetimes right in front of us in less than a month.” The Inquirer writes that most Democrats think that Fetterman, who took third place in the 2016 primary to face Toomey, will run for Senate, though they said a gubernatorial bid is possible. Montgomery County Commission Chair Val Arkoosh, meanwhile, said she would be “very seriously exploring” a Senate bid after this election is over.
Philadelphia City Councilwoman Helen Gym has been mentioned mostly as a potential 2023 candidate for mayor, but when she was asked about her interest in the Senate, she did not say no. The paper also reports that Rep. Brendan Boyle is privately considering a Senate bid, while Rep. Chrissy Houlahan isn’t ruling that race out. The Inquirer also says that state Treasurer Joe Torsella, who is also up for re-election this year, is more interested in a gubernatorial run, though he hasn’t closed the door on the Senate.
State Rep. Summer Lee, who would be the first woman of color to hold either job, also responded to Toomey’s news by saying, “I honestly wasn't thinking anything about it. Trying to make it through 2020! We deserve a more diverse group of candidates than all white men, though." Rep. Conor Lamb has also been mentioned as a possible contender for either statewide post.
On the Republican side, 2018 gubernatorial nominee Scott Wagner, who lost to Wolf 58-41, said he wasn’t ruling out a second run for that office. Wealthy businessman Jeff Bartos, who was Wagner’s candidate for lieutenant governor, also said he was thinking about a Senate run after this election ends. Former Rep. Lou Barletta, who lost the 2018 Senate race to Democratic incumbent Bob Casey 56-43, meanwhile said he’d decide on another Senate run after this election.
The Inquirer reports that former Rep. Ryan Costello is interested in the Senate, and Politico wrote that former Rep. Charlie Dent, who is currently backing Joe Biden over Donald Trump, is also considering a statewide run, though it didn’t specify for which office.
The Inquirer, the National Journal, and Politico have mentioned plenty of other Republicans for either office as well:
- State Sen. Camera Bartolotta
- Former Lt. Gov. Jim Cawley
- Rep. Mike Kelly
- Chester County Commissioner Michelle Kichline
- 2018 gubernatorial candidate Paul Mango
- U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain
- Rep. Dan Meuser
- State Sen. Mike Regan
- State Rep. Greg Rothman
- Rep. Guy Reschenthaler
- Rep. Lloyd Smucker
- Rep. Glenn Thompson
- State Rep. Martina White
- Businessman Jeff Yass
Vice’s Todd Zwillich also tweeted, “In my convos with PA Republicans today, among the many many names in the mix for the open Senate seat: @DonaldJTrumpJr,” which would be terrible news for everyone hoping to think about the Trumps as little as possible after Jan. 20.
● SC-Sen: Incumbent Lindsey Graham's new commercial stars South Carolina's far more popular Republican senator, Tim Scott. Scott tells the audience that his colleague is "a listener … Some of his best ideas come from listening to everyday people around South Carolina for their thoughts, their hard times, their dreams." Throughout the commercial Graham is seen meeting constituents while sporting a "thin blue line" flag facemask.
● Senate Forecast: The path to a Democratic-controlled Senate got clearer this week, with positive movement in both races in Georgia. David Jarman details how Jon Ossoff has pulled into a very narrow lead in the regularly scheduled election, while Raphael Warnock is now much likelier to advance to the runoff in the special election.
● Polls:
- AZ-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Mark Kelly (D): 50, Martha McSally (R-inc): 39 (49-41 Biden)
- GA-Sen-A: Hart Research (D) for the Human Rights Campaign: David Perdue (R-inc): 49, Jon Ossoff (D): 46 (50-47 Biden)
- GA-Sen-B: Hart Research (D) for the Human Rights Campaign: Raphael Warnock (D): 28, Kelly Loeffler (R-inc): 28, Doug Collins (R): 21, Matt Lieberman (D): 8, Ed Tarver (D): 3 (50-47 Biden)
- IA-Sen: Hart Research (D) for the Human Rights Campaign: Joni Ernst (R-inc): 48, Theresa Greenfield (D): 48 (49-47 Trump)
- NC-Sen: Hart Research (D) for the Human Rights Campaign: Cal Cunningham (D): 54, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 41 (49-47 Biden)
The memo from Hart Research for the Human Rights Campaign includes polls of the Senate races in Arizona and Michigan that were released last week.
Gubernatorial
● MO-Gov: The Republican firm Remington Research's newest survey for the political tipsheet Missouri Scout finds Republican Gov. Mike Parson leading Democrat Nicole Galloway 51-44, while the sample favors Donald Trump 51-46. Two weeks ago, this firm found Parson and Trump ahead 52-43 and 53-45, respectively; we have not seen any other numbers in the intervening time.
● NC-Gov: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling's newest survey of its home state gives Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper a 52-40 lead over Republican Dan Forest, while Joe Biden is ahead 50-46. PPP's late July poll for AFSCME had Cooper up by a similar 53-42.
● NH-Gov: The National Journal reports that the conservative group Americans for Prosperity has launched a $300,000 "multi-platform ad buy" for Republican Gov. Chris Sununu that includes TV spots touting Sununu's opposition to taxes.
House
● NY-11: It’s rare for both parties to make the same politician their foil in their advertisements, but Democratic New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is very much the villain in Republican and Democratic commercials. Republican Nicole Malliotakis and her allies have been airing spots tying freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose to Hizzoner, while Rose is up with a new ad declaring, “When Bill de Blasio tried to defund the police, I said it was 100% wrong.”
Rose goes on to praise Donald Trump, who carried this Staten Island-based seat 54-44 four years ago, saying, “And I stood with President Trump when Democrats attacked him for killing an Iranian terrorist. Because when you kill American soldiers, we kill you.”
● OR-04: Over the last few days both parties have begun running commercials in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District, where longtime Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio has always won re-election easily even though his constituency has been swingy turf in presidential races. The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund has announced a $250,000 buy that both tries to attack DeFazio over the state’s massive wildfires and attack him for backing Green New Deal legislation to combat global warming.
House Majority PAC, meanwhile, is running a commercial declaring that Republican Alek Skarlatos “supports allowing insurance companies to cancel healthcare for millions of Americans with pre-existing conditions and slashing over $500 billion from Medicare while giving away more than $75 billion to pharmaceutical companies.” Politico reports that the DCCC has also booked ad time here, but there is no word on the size of the buy for either committee.
This seat, which includes the southern Willamette Valley and Oregon’s southern coast, backed Hillary Clinton by a tiny 46.1-46.0 spread, which was the closest margin in any of the nation's 435 congressional districts. DeFazio, who was first elected in 1986, has always won re-election by double digits, but both parties’ decision to get involved here indicates that this contest could be more competitive than usual.
● Polls:
AR-02: The memo says that two previously unreleased polls gave Republican Rep. French Hill a larger lead over Democrat Joyce Elliott: In June, Hill led 50-43, while he held a 50-46 advantage in early September.
FL-16: The only other poll we’ve seen here in the last several months was a late August Data Targeting internal from Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan that showed him ahead 51-35. This seat, which includes that Sarasota area, backed Donald Trump 54-43 four years ago.
NY-24: Siena also included a version of this poll without Working Families Party nominee Steven Williams and found Democrat Dana Balter’s lead over Republican Rep. John Katko expanding slightly to 45-42.
The WFP, which usually backs Democratic candidates, picked Williams as a placeholder nominee months ago, and Williams planned to step aside later so the party could give its nomination to the winner of the June Democratic primary. Republicans sued, though, and convinced a judge that the WFP did not follow the proper rules to get Williams off the ballot. Williams therefore remains the WFP nominee even though he’s not doing any campaigning, though legal action is still underway.
The last polls we saw here were both from August. Katko released a mid-August survey from Public Opinion Strategies that found him ahead 51-40 as Joe Biden led just 48-46 in a seat that backed Hillary Clinton 49-45. Balter's team responded with a late August poll from GBAO that showed her ahead 48-46 as Biden led 52-40.
OK-05: We’ve seen three other surveys of the contest for this Oklahoma City-based district. The DCCC conducted a GQR Research poll in early August, weeks before Stephanie Bice wrapped up the Republican nomination, that had Democratic incumbent Kendra Horn ahead 51-46; that sample also gave Trump just a 48-47 edge in a district he'd carried 53-40 four years ago.
In early September, though, SoonerPoll released a survey for News9 that had Bice ahead 45-44, and it did not ask about the presidential race. Bice’s camp then dropped a Normington Petts survey in the middle of last month that showed her up 52-44; that release did not include presidential numbers either.
PA-10: Last week, House Majority PAC released a Victoria Research poll that gave Democrat Eugene DePasquale a 50-43 lead over Republican Rep. Scott Perry, while Biden led 51-44 in a Harrisburg-area seat that favored Trump 53-44 four years ago. Republicans have yet to publicize any numbers here.
Other Races
● Los Angeles County, CA District Attorney: On Sunday, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti announced that he was withdrawing his endorsement of incumbent Jackie Lacey and would back former San Francisco District Attorney George Gascón instead. Garcetti argued, "George Gascón will help our county shift the burden from the criminal justice system and jails toward diversion, intervention and re-entry programs that save money and save lives."
Garcetti had agreed back in June that it might be time for a new district attorney in the wake of widespread protests against police killings, though he didn't switch his support until now.
Grab Bag
● Deaths: Mike Foster, a Republican who served as governor of Louisiana from 1996 to 2004, died Sunday at the age of 90. While Foster was a low-key politician by Louisiana’s fractious standards, he won this post in 1995 against several better-known opponents just months after he left the Democratic Party—a victory that was made possible in large part thanks to a secret deal with David Duke, the former grand wizard of the Ku Klux Klan. Check out our obituary for more.
Ad Roundup
