AK State Senate, State House: While Alaska Republicans are in a good position to retake control of the state House, which is currently run by a coalition of Democrats, independents, and breakaway Republicans, they need to worry about a similar alliance taking over the state Senate.
The GOP currently enjoys a 13-7 edge in the upper chamber, and there’s little question that more Republicans will hold seats after Tuesday’s elections than Democrats. Team Blue, though, is trying to flip the seats held by John Coghill and Senate President Cathy Giessel, who each lost their primaries back in August. If they succeed in taking either, it would make it easier for Democrats to reach out to Republicans dissatisfied with their own leadership.
And it does seem like they may have some takers. The Anchorage Daily News’ James Brooks reports that Democrats hope that as many as four Republican senators would join them in a coalition. Each of these Republicans—state Sens. Click Bishop, Bert Stedman, Gary Stevens, and Natasha von Imhof—told the paper that it was too early for them to decide on anything, with Stevens saying that he wanted the Republican majority to try and come up with a working agreement to run the chamber after the election.
Brooks writes, though, that those negotiations may be difficult. Three other Republican senators have come out in opposition to the legislature’s “binding caucus rule,” which Brooks describes as “a set of voluntary rules that require members of a majority to vote together on specific items, including the budget.” However, Stedman and Bishop say that they won’t join the Republican majority unless these rules remain in place, with Brooks writing that they “see them as critical for organization and negotiation on the budget.”
Over in the 40-member House, though, Republicans are favored, though not at all assured, to regain control of the chamber they lost right after the 2016 election. Five Republicans currently sit with the 15 Democrats and two independents, but two of them were defeated in primaries in August. Republican leaders also beat state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, who isn’t part of any alliance, in her primary and also took back another seat that was held by Gary Knopp, a coalition member who died a month before the primary.
While Republicans didn’t defeat their other three renegade members in August, it may not matter. Two of them, Steve Thompson and Bart LeBon, were renominated, but they said last month, “We’re Republicans and we want to form a Republican majority. That’s our hope and objective.” The third Republican member of the coalition on the ballot, state Rep. Louise Stutes, said last month she was staying “noncommittal,” though she joined Thompson and LeBon in sponsoring a joint fundraiser for Republican House candidates.
Assuming Thompson and LeBon keep their word, no seats changed hands this week, and no one else jumped ship, that would leave Republican state House Minority Leader Lance Pruitt with at least 22 seats in the 40-person chamber, which would allow him to become speaker no matter what Stutes does. However, there’s still dissension in the ranks that could complicate things even if Team Red has a good election night.
State Rep. David Eastman, a conservative never joined the Majority Caucus but has nevertheless been a huge pain for party leaders, is opposed to the binding caucus and recently said that he’d be reluctant to join the GOP caucus if it remained a requirement. Eastman even went so far to predict that there was only a “52%” chance that there would be an all-GOP ruling majority, though he added, “Ask me tomorrow and you might get a different answer.” The more moderate Stutes agreed that coalition building could be difficult for Pruitt and his allies, saying, “We have our moderates and then we have our far-right and our far-left, and none of those groups add up to 21.”
Tuesday’s election results could also make things more complicated in more ways than one. Pruitt, whom Democrats are targeting for defeat, acknowledged that things would get rough if he ended up as one of just 21 Republicans in the majority coalition. “I think 21 is hard,” Pruitt told Brooks, adding, “Has it been done? Yes, but it’s tough.” Brooks also notes that, even if no members leave the caucus, a single dissenter or absent member could create problems for the Republicans.
Democratic state Sen. Bill Wielechowski also notes that bipartisan coalitions may be more likely in either chamber if Measure 2, which would create America’s first “top-four” primary system, wins a majority of the vote.
This referendum would require all the candidates for congressional, legislative, and statewide races to face off on one primary ballot, where contenders would have the option to identify themselves with a party label or be listed as "undeclared" or "nonpartisan." The top four vote-getters would advance to the general election, where voters would be able to rank their choices using instant-runoff voting. This new rule, as Wielechowski points out, would reduce the influence of each party and could make it easier for members to form coalitions and still keep their seats.
With so many factors in play, it could take a while before we know who is in control of either chamber. Indeed, just two years ago it looked like Republicans had taken control of the House from a different bipartisan alliance, but they simply could not find a candidate for speaker who could command a majority. The deadlock lasted through February of 2017, a full third of the way through the legislature's 90-day session, when a new coalition finally formed.