After my first maps of Minnesota, New Jersey and Pennsylvania it’s time to look the redistricting in Colorado. It’s my first map for a State gaining a seat and it’s a little bit more difficult because you have to think where center the new one. In Colorado it’s easy because Denver Area can support a third seat. I don’t try to draw a Hispanic Majority seat in Denver Area because it means to split and gerrymander a lot of places. So basically the 1st and the 7th are 20 percent Hispanic (and 4th, outside Denver, is 24% Hispanic).
Let’s see the districts:
1st District: basically Denver. Dark blue district where Diana DeGette is no more and no less in danger than in 2020. However the primary is far more interesting than the general election here. SAFE D
2nd District: Boulder and Fort Collins are the anchors of this heavy blue ì, heavy college district. If Joe Neguse seems fit good in this district and a primary is unlikely (but never say never). However no problems in November. SAFE D
3rd District: a big western district with a lot of touristic places like Aspen and ancestrally democratic places like Costilla County (that vote a democratic candidate in presidential elections since 1924). The district is light pink, but an incumbent like Lauren Boebert give an open to the right Dem. LEAN R
4th District: This large eastern district is the most hispanic but the most red in the State. SAFE R
5th District: Near perfectly whole El Paso County with a little balance outside. Colorado Springs Area is slowing moving to the left but it’s still red turf. Now it’s SAFE R but can drift to the left after half of the decade.
6th District: Aurora based district. An ancestrally red area, but today it’s at least LIKELY D. Jason Crow will likely run here and it’s very hard imagine him lost.
7th District: the most hispanic district in the Metro Area is another LIKELY D district. This district is pushed a little bit north and east from the actual 7th but it’s still the most likely seat for Earl Perlmutter to run. Hard imagine him lost too.
8th District: the new, open district. based in the south western suburbs and exurbs of Denver. Its partisanship it’s tending blue but not so much. If the 2022 midterms will punish the sitting President the republicans have an open here, but the Democrats can play to win here. TOSSUP
RECAP: Colorado will gain a seat in 2022 and it will likely be in the Denver Area. My hypotetical map has 2 SAFE D, 2 LIKELY D, 1 TOSSUP, 1 LEAN R, 2 SAFE R