Here is some data on the Coronavirus infection that has ravaged Italy and has resulted in a sharp uptick in infection numbers and fatalities and a lockdown of pretty much the entire country. The data holds important lessons for the U.S.
The following data was published by www.iss.it/… based on an analysis of 8,342 positive cases on March 9. Note that we cannot apply these percentages to the entire population or even to the total number of infected cases in the population.
| Age Group |
% of Infections |
Notes |
| 0-19 |
1.4% |
|
| 19-50 |
22% |
Young people do get infected but at a lower rate, but there are many factors that play a role in catching the virus besides age
|
| 51-70 |
37.4% |
This is also an eye-opening number. |
| 70+ |
39.2% |
|
Median age of patients = 65.
| SEX |
% of Infections |
Notes |
| Male |
62.1% |
This does not necessarily imply any inherent property of the virus vs sex. I bet there are social and other factors that play a role. |
| Female |
37.9% |
|
| Symptom severity |
Value |
Notes |
| asymptomatic |
10% |
|
| few symptoms |
5% |
|
| mild symptoms |
30% |
45% of cases shows mild or no symptoms.
This also implies that Italy must be testing more than just severely ill individuals
|
| sympomatic |
31% |
|
| severe symptoms |
6% |
|
| critical |
19% |
|
The % values below are percentage of positive cases.
| Misc Info |
Value |
Notes |
| Required hospitalization |
24% |
|
| Required ICU |
10% |
Not from this study. See link below
|
| Number of health care workers infected |
583 |
How are we going to thank them? |
| % who died |
? |
Not reported in the study
But estimates put this at 50% of those in ICU
|
| % of dead who are 80+ years old |
56.6% |
|
| % of dead that had 3 or more pre-existing chronic diseases |
67% |
As we have seen before, pre-existing diseases play a major role in fatalities |
Some additional info — 10% of cases required ICU care —
Italy case counts as of 2:45 p.m. EDT — 10,149 infections, 631 deaths.
The major lesson here is that even though fatality rates among the young is relatively low (something the trump administration loves to emphasize), the young do get infected and in turn transmit the virus to the elderly and the consequences are tragic. Everyone needs to follow the guidelines for personal hygiene and social distancing.
There is a poster from the site with some more info, but it is in Italian -
The Coronavirus Growth Rate in Italy and other countries
The following shows the number of infections and the growth rate for several countries besides China. Italy is on a bad trajectory, hopefully recent lockdowns and other containment polices will bend the curve, as South Korea has managed to do.
We are still in the early stages here in the U.S. and our numbers are artificially low due to a lack of adequate testing. We can expect our graph to move sharply upwards in the coming days.
The numbers for U.S., Spain and France are currently low but the graph starkly illustrates what lies ahead. Will we follow the South Korean curve, the Italian one or something worse?
In the graph above, I approximately lined up the plots, so that we can compare the number of cases and case growth in different countries over time. Note that the start date is different for different countries, e.g., Italy and S. Korea had an earlier start date than the U.S., while U.S, Spain and France have similar start dates. The last point in each line represents data for today Mar 10.
News from Italy
Follow the link below to see some images of Italy in these times of Coronavirus.
Giacomo Grasselli - a senior Italian government health official who is coordinating the network of intensive care units in Lombardy - explains the “critical” situation in Italy, brought about by the Covid-19 outbreak -
U.S. Preparedness and News
In spite of the “million kit” canard put out by the administration, actual testing capability remains relatively low. Total tests conducted until yesterday is about 8.500.
Gov. Cuomo announces containment procedures for New Rochelle, NY. Any large gathering places within that containment area will be required to shut down from Thursday through March 25.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the state had 174 confirmed cases of the coronavirus. Of those, 108 are in Westchester county. New Rochelle's outbreak has centered around its Young Israel synagogue, where dozens of congregants have developed the coronavirus disease after a series of large gatherings the weekend of Feb. 22. www.lohud.com/...
Some insightful analysis by the group led by scientist Trevor Bedford — the thread shows how they calculated the expected number of infections in the Seattle area. They estimate about 1,100 active infections on March 10, in the Seattle area.
We are past containment. Meaning that travel bans and border closures are useless at this point. The virus is here and spreading locally. We need to take major mitigation steps.
We certainly are past containment. We have to think about aggressive steps at mitigation. It's impossible to avoid an epidemic here in the U.S. We do have the potential to limit the scope of the epidemic, but we need to be taking more aggressive steps. My concern now is we're not taking aggressive enough steps at mitigation to prevent a broader epidemic. And so the risk is that we have the potential for tens of thousands of cases and not just thousands of cases.
Some sobering analysis by the former director of CDC -
The president (Obama) asked me, “We’re not going to see a million deaths in this country, are we, doctor?”
I replied, with more certainty than I felt, “No, Mr. President, we won’t.” If asked the same question today about the novel coronavirus, I would have to reply, “I hope not, but that’s a possibility.”
Epilogue
Much is being learnt about the Coronavirus, much else remains to be learnt. Scientists and health professionals from around the world are working at breakneck speed to analyze information, sequence the gene, develop treatments and vaccines and provide guidance to private and public organizations. Meanwhile, we have to do all we can to slow down the spread of the diseases and prevent ourselves and our loved ones from getting infected. Of course it would help if our government was more competent, but that’s another story.
Stay healthy, stay prepared, stay informed, stay vigilant, and stay positive. And let’s all work to flatten that epidemic graph.
Check out this recent diary “Coronavirus - Some more research findings and advice about the virus” at www.dailykos.com/… for some more insights into the virus.
Let’s focus our comments in this diary on science, the nature of the virus and any information that can help others. Let’s avoid venting about trump and the criminal administration in this diary; there will be plenty of other diaries that will cover that topic.
By the same token, stay away from misinformation, exaggerations and non-expert opinion. On social media, anyone who can multiply by 2 is supposedly an expert. Follow scientists and reputable organizations, do not search for #Coronavirus on twitter. Do not post info. about “stuff” you read on the Internet, disinformation spreads faster than this virus on social media!
Further Reading
- Coronavirus - Some more research findings and advice about the virus — www.dailykos.com/...
- Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 — en.wikipedia.org/...
- coronavirus.1point3acres.com/… — a good site to follow the numbers for the U.S., including state-by-state counts
- Implications of the Coronavirus infections in Washington State — www.dailykos.com/…
- Coronovirus Vaccines and Treatments under Development — www.dailykos.com/...
- Coronavirus Control - Novel High Tech. Solutions or Mass Surveillance? — www.dailykos.com/…
- Coronavirus - Music and Culture to improve Preparedness and to Help Victims and Caregivers — www.dailykos.com/…
- Wuhan Coronavirus - An Update, Prognosis and Projections — www.dailykos.com/
