2018 nominee Kara Eastman decisively won Tuesday’s Democratic primary by defeating attorney Ann Ferlic Ashford 62-32 in Nebraska’s 2nd District, a competitive seat in the Omaha area. Minutes after the Associated Press called the race, the DCCC released a survey from its in-house polling team that showed Eastman narrowly leading GOP Rep. Don Bacon 48-47. The sample also found Joe Biden beating Donald Trump 52-41 here, which would be quite the shift from Trump’s 48-46 victory in 2016.
As Politico’s Zach Montellaro notes, the DCCC may have dropped these numbers in part to show that it would be giving Eastman more support against Bacon this time than it did last cycle. Back in 2018, the committee backed former Rep. Brad Ashford, the husband of Ann Ferlic Ashford, in the primary. However, Eastman surprised the political world when she narrowly defeated the moderate former congressman by running to his left.
Polls taken during the fall, including some Democratic surveys, consistently showed Bacon ahead of Eastman, and national Democrats directed resources elsewhere. The DCCC and House Majority PAC didn’t end up running TV ads here at all (though the DCCC said after the election that they’d spent “almost $100,000” to help Eastman pay to air a commercial), while the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund deployed a hefty $1.4 million against her. However, Eastman did better than almost anyone expected when she held Bacon to just a 51-49 win.
This seat will almost certainly attract far more outside spending that it did last cycle, and not only because of the Bacon-Eastman rematch. Aside from Maine, Nebraska is the only state that awards an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district, and both sides will try to score a win in the 2nd District.
For now, though, Bacon looks like the favorite here. The incumbent, who is a retired Air Force brigadier general, is a tough opponent, and the DCCC’s poll does show him running well ahead of Trump. Bacon also begins the general election with a huge financial lead over Eastman, though she narrowly outraised him last cycle. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Lean Republican.
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