Lots of movement in the Senate polls during the pandemic quarantine, mostly toward Democrats, but a few appear to have a tighter race on their hands than previously indicated.
It’s a snapshot
As with all of my 2020 race maps, this is a snapshot of polls to show where the race is, or was, at the time of the latest polls. No prediction is implied!
4 Crucial Flip Targets
AZ Navy Captain and Astronaut Mark Kelly keeps growing his lead in the polls. It’s now in the safe range, > 3 times the margin of error. Safe D
CO There’s finally some new polling out. Former Gov. Hickenlooper led by 17 or 18 points in early May. Only thing is, he has to beat former House Speaker Romanoff, progressive environmental champion, in the primary on June 30. Likely D
NC On May 1st and 5th, it looked like D Cal Cunningham was off to the races with a pair of polls showing him at +9%. Then Tillis scored a 2-point lead May 7-9 in an East Carolina U poll. Cunningham countered that with a 2-point lead on May 21. Call it Leans D for the month of May.
ME No new polling since Mar 5 in this marquee race. Primary moved to July 14. Leans D
4 Democratic Incumbents who need help
MI Sen. Gary Peters does not have a high profile, but he was showing up doubters with double-digit leads until May 11-17, when Change Research showed him leading by only 5 points. Leans D
MN Still no polling since Nov, when Sen. Tina Smith led by 8 points. Going to be a bit more cautious about uncertainty. Leans D
MA I said Likely D based more on bias than polls before. Polling back in Aug showed R Gov. Baker beating Sen. Ed Markey but trailing Rep. Joe Kennedy. Markey still trails the young Kennedy in primary polling. Gov Baker is not running and there are no polls for actual Republican contenders against Markey or Kennedy. Uncertainty again. Leans D
AL No new polling. Sen. Doug Jones presumably still trails. Likely R
West of the Mississippi
IA New polls in May. Greenfield trailed Sen. Ernst by 1%, Mauro tied Ernst. TOSSUP
KS No new polling since Apr 15, when Republican-turned Democrat Dr. Barbara Bollier led Kobach by 2 points. Curbing my enthusiasm now. TOSSUP
TX Cornyn has big leads over possible opponents, MJ Hegar and Royce West, who will compete in a primary runoff on July 14, but the undecided 34% nearly matches his support. Hard to say he has a safe hold if he can’t beat undecided. Likely R
NM Previously I went by 270’s consensus at likely. The one poll in Jan showed Ben Ray Lujan with a safe 19 point lead in the race to replace retiring Democrat, Tom Udall. Safe D
MT Democrats trailed Sen. Daines by 20 points until Gov. Steve Bullock entered the race with a tie. He now has a 7-point lead. Rating cautiously for now. Leans D
5 More Southern Races
KY No new polling. Based on my interactions on DK and FB, McGrath seems to have a big lead in the primary, to match her very big lead in fundraising, over black progressive Charles Booker and UBI progressive ex-Marine Mike Broihier, who just got endorsed by Yang. No primary polling. TOSSUP
SC No new polling for Jaime Harrison vs. Leningrad Lindsey. Leans R
GA Special: It looks certain that appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler, Trump sycophant and apparently-errant stock trader, will lose her seat in the Jungle Primary format special election. R Doug Collins leads the jungle with 34%, but in head-to-head polls of likely runoff matchups with Democrats Rev. Raphael Warnock and Matt Lieberman (yes. HIS son.), Rep. Collins is virtually tied. TOSSUP
GA 6-year: Jon Ossoff appears to lead Teresa Tomlinson and Sarah Riggs Amico for the Democratic nomination. In 4 polls this month, Ossoff has trailed Sen. Perdue by 6, 2 and 5 points and led him by 2 points. Likely R
MS Clinton Cabinet member Mike Espy has trailed Sen. Hyde-Smith by 5 to 10 points. In early May, an unrated outfit called Impact Management Group pegs her at a 28 point lead. Safe R
Tally It Up!
Based on new polling and closer analysis, my number of Safe Democratic seats has risen from 42 on May 1 to 44 now, but Safe+Likely has dropped from 47 to 45. May polling shows Democrats gained two leaners, MT and NC, for a lead of 51-45 with 4 tossups. Up from 49-47 with 4 tossups on May 1.
Polls indicate the races most likely to decide the balance of power are MT, NC, ME, KS, IA, GA-Special and KY.
There are a lot of close races. Democrats can win the Senate! 55 to 57 seats are very possible. 59 are within reach, but we all have to stop our addiction to the Trump circus of buffoonery, treason and criminality long enough to help some Democrats win.
Senate Seats
Party |
Continuing
|
Safe |
Likely |
Leans |
Dem caucus |
35 |
9 |
1 |
6 |
Republican |
30 |
11 |
2 |
2
|
Up in the air |
35 |
15 |
12 |
4 |