NY-27: The coronavirus pandemic led Gov. Andrew Cuomo to reschedule the special election for this 60-35 Trump seat from late April to June 23, the same day as New York’s primaries, and that’s created a complicated situation on the GOP side. State Sen. Chris Jacobs is Team Red’s nominee for the special election to fill the final months of disgraced ex-Rep. Chris Collins’ term, but he’s also facing oncoming fire on his right flank in the primary from attorney and former Fox contributor Beth Parlato.
Parlato recently went up with a TV ad featuring an actor playing an IRS agent who declares, “The IRS does not endorse candidates. But if we did, we’d choose Chris Jacobs.” The actor goes on to say that Jacobs “shares our values” and supported $5 billion in new taxes. He continues, “We can’t let Beth Parlato into Congress. She’s like President Trump, a tax cutter.”
Parlato may also be getting some outside support soon. The anti-tax Club for Growth has long had it out for Jacobs, who identified as pro-choice during his failed 2006 run for lieutenant governor, and its president told The Buffalo News’ Robert McCarthy that it would “likely” endorse Parlato.
However, it remains to be seen how much aid the group would provide. Back in January, right after party leaders nominated Jacobs for the special (in New York special elections, county party leaders choose congressional nominees rather than primary voters), the Club publicly said that it was “prepared to spend seven figures opposing Jacobs,” but it wouldn’t commit to any kind of amount this week.
Even if the Club goes all-in, though, it’s still going to be difficult to deny Jacobs the GOP nod. Another candidate, Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw, is also in, and he and Parlato may end up appealing to the same type of voters who aren’t happy with the state senator. Jacobs also will probably benefit from being the GOP’s nominee in the concurrent special election since his opponents will need to win over plenty of Republican voters who would be supporting Jacobs in the other contest.
Jacobs also has plenty of important allies. Donald Trump endorsed him in February for the special election, and Jacobs has made sure to remind voters of that in his ads. Parlato responded by griping to McCarthy that Trump’s endorsement only applied to the special, which was set for April at the time. She’s right, but that’s a distinction that may be lost on most voters now that both races are on the same day. The deep-pocketed U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which often finds itself on the opposite side of the Club in primaries, also threw its support behind Jacobs this week.
This seat, which includes some of the Buffalo suburbs, is very tough turf for Team Blue, though it’s possible that the GOP chaos will give Democrat Nate McMurray a better opening in the special election. McMurray faces no opposition in the primary, so he’ll take on the GOP primary winner in the general election.
P.S. If Jacobs does lose the primary on the same day he wins the seat in a special general election, he’ll have some company in political nerd trivia. In 1986, Hawaii Democrat Neil Abercrombie won the special election for the 1st District by defeating Republican Pat Saiki 30-29, while fellow Democrat Mufi Hannemann took 28%. (All the candidates competed on one ballot without any sort of a primary or runoff, a system that cost Democrats this seat in a 2010 special.)
However, it was Hannemann who defeated Abercrombie 40-39 in the regular primary, so Abercrombie arrived in the House as a lame-duck congressman. Saiki beat Hannemann a few months later but left in 1990 to unsuccessfully run for the Senate, and Abercrombie won the seat back.