The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Primary Day: Granger Things: At last, the real 2020 primaries are here! Super Tuesday brings us our first downballot primary night of 2020, and it's the biggest any of us can remember.
Voters in Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Texas go to the polls to pick their candidates for state and federal offices that will help shape the state of play in key Senate and House races. We've put together our preview of the races to watch, and we're in for a truly exciting night.
Two Texas House members, Republican Kay Granger and Democrat Henry Cuellar, are facing well-funded foes in contests that have attracted millions in outside spending, while Democratic incumbent Jim Costa also faces a challenge on his left in California's top-two primary. The field will also be set in the special election for California's competitive 25th District, as well as a number of other closely-watched House contests.
Campaign Action
But that's not all. We have a very messy GOP Senate primary to take on Alabama Sen. Doug Jones, as well as a truly ugly and expensive contest to succeed scandal-tarred ex-Rep. Duncan Hunter in California's 50th District. Democrats will also narrow the field in the very crowded Senate primary to face Texas Sen. John Cornyn. You can find details on all these races, plus dozens more, in our Super Tuesday primary preview.
Our live coverage will begin at 7 PM ET Tuesday night at Daily Kos Elections. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates. And you'll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates of the presidential and downballot primaries in all 50 states, as well as our separate calendar tracking key contests further down the ballot taking place nationwide this year.
Senate
● GA-Sen-B: The prominent conservative nonprofit One Nation is spending over $1 million on an ad campaign excoriating Republican Rep. Doug Collins, who is challenging GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler, for backing criminal justice reforms. The commercial uses the type of language that Republicans have deployed for decades against Democrats who have expressed any desire to make improvements to the justice system, intoning, "We need tough laws to keep violent criminals behind bars and off the streets. But some in Congress want to take us in a dangerously different direction."
The narrator then declares that Collins "sided with liberals and proposed legislation that would have allowed early release for certain sex traffickers. Even some people caught with child pornography." Since this spot is framed as an issue ad rather than a campaign ad, viewers are told to call Collins and tell him "he needs to stop early release of dangerous criminals" and oppose a different criminal justice reform bill sponsored by Democrats.
● MA-Sen: On behalf of the Boston Globe and WBZ-TV, Suffolk University is out with a survey of the September Democratic primary that gives Rep. Joe Kennedy III a 42-36 edge against Sen. Ed Markey. While this poll focused on Tuesday's presidential contest, the Senate question was taken among a sample of likely fall primary voters. Suffolk's last survey from September of last year gave Kennedy a larger 42-28 advantage.
● NC-Sen: Both Marist and High Point University are out with polls showing former state Sen. Cal Cunningham far ahead of state Sen. Erica Smith in Tuesday's Democratic primary, a finding that's consistent with every other poll we've seen over the last few weeks. Marist and another college, East Carolina University, also take a look at the likely general election matchup between Cunningham and GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, but they disagree on who is ahead. East Carolina gives Tillis a 44-42 edge, but Marist has Cunningham up 48-43.
● NH-Sen: The University of New Hampshire is out with a new poll that gives Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen wide leads over each of her three potential GOP rivals:
- 49-30 vs. retired Army Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc
- 51-30 vs. former state House Speaker Bill O'Brien
- 52-28 vs. attorney Corky Messner
While New Hampshire is a volatile state, national Republicans so far don't appear to be making this race a priority.
● TX-Sen: Both UT Tyler and Marist are out with surveys of Tuesday's Democratic primary that give Air Force veteran MJ Hegar the lead, with a very close and crowded race for the second spot in a likely May runoff. Marist has Hegar at 16%, while nonprofit head Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez just barely edges state Sen. Royce West 9-8 for second. UT Tyler puts Hegar at 15% and has a three-way tie for second with 7% each for Tzintzún Ramirez, Royce, and former Rep. Chris Bell. Both surveys feature large pluralities of undecided voters.
Marist also takes a look at one hypothetical general election scenario and finds GOP Sen. John Cornyn leading Hegar 49-41.
Gubernatorial
● NC-Gov: High Point University's final poll of Tuesday's GOP primary shows Lt. Gov. Dan Forest beating state Rep. Holly Grange in a 64-12 landslide, a finding that's consistent with other recent polls. A different local college, East Carolina University, also took a look at the likely general election and gave Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper a 49-41 lead against Forest. The same survey found Republican Sen. Thom Tillis up 44-42 on Democrat Cal Cunningham in the race for the Senate (see our NC-Sen item above).
House
● CA-10: 2018 candidate Ted Howze picked up an endorsement last week from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy ahead of Tuesday's top-two primary for the right to face Democratic Rep. Josh Harder in November. Howze, a former member of the Turlock City Council who has been self-funding most of his campaign, has decisively outspent his two fellow Republicans, San Joaquin County Supervisor Bob Elliott and 2018 9th District nominee Marla Livengood.
● GA-09: Former Gov. Nathan Deal has endorsed state Rep. Kevin Tanner in the crowded May GOP primary for this open seat. Gov. Brian Kemp has not yet taken sides, but the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that his allies are also backing Tanner.
● KS-02: Rep. Steve Watkins is out with a survey from a firm called “co/efficient” (yes, it’s lowercase) that gives him a 49-23 lead over state Treasurer Jake LaTurner in the August GOP primary. LaTurner's team called the poll "phony" and claimed their own numbers had the race "in the margin of error," but they have yet to actually release any contradictory data.
● LA-05: Republican Luke Letlow, who serves as chief of staff to retiring Rep. Ralph Abraham, said Friday that he'd take about a week to decide whether he'd run to succeed his boss. Abraham has already said that he'd support Letlow in the November all-party primary for this safely red seat, but two GOP state legislators are also showing some interest in running.
State Rep. Mike Johnson told the News Star's Greg Hilburn, "I'm giving it a lot of thought and prayer. I'm enjoying what I'm doing, but I'm getting a lot of encouragement to run." Confusingly, there's a Republican Rep. Mike Johnson who represents the neighboring 4th Congressional District, though Hilburn says that the two politicians are not related. (Readers, if you know of any past examples of two U.S. House members with the same first and last name concurrently representing the same state, please let us know!)
State Rep. Jack McFarland sounded a bit less excited than his colleague, though. McFarland said he "won't rule out" a bid but added that he was "focused on my work in the legislature as we prepare to go into session on March 9." Louisiana's legislative session doesn’t end until June 1, but its filing deadline isn't until mid-July.
● NY-14: New York City Councilman Fernando Cabrera announced on Sunday that he was dropping his longshot primary challenge against Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to instead run for Bronx borough president. On his way out of the race, Cabrera endorsed former CNBC anchor Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, who is now the most notable candidate competing against AOC.
● TN-01: Former Johnson City Mayor Steve Darden set up a fundraising account with the FEC on Monday for a potential bid for the GOP nod in this safely red open seat.
● UT-04: Trent Christensen, who served as a regional finance director for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign, told Utah Policy over the weekend that he was considering entering the June primary to take on Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams. Christensen has already filed paperwork with the state to allow him to gather signatures to make the ballot, though he said he'll only decide sometime after Tuesday's presidential primary. Utah’s filing deadline is March 19.
● WA-10: Democratic state Rep. Beth Doglio announced over the weekend that she was joining the August top-two primary for this open seat.
A few other Democrats are already running to succeed retiring Rep. Denny Heck including former state Rep. Kristine Reeves; former Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland; and Phil Gardner, who is Heck's former district director. Doglio's 22nd Legislative District makes up about 20% of the 10th Congressional District, which could give her a geographic advantage over her opponents. Reeves and Strickland have represented very little of this seat in the past, while Gardner has not held office before.
